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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat  (Read 31073 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2016, 04:23:57 pm »

Another state where there will be assembly elections would be Uttarakhand



Uttarakhand is a small state that was part of UP until it was split out in 2000.  Historically the BJP and INC has been strong here with BSP and SP being weaker here.  Once the state split out SP pretty quickly declined to a micro-party while BSP still has some hold on Dalits.  UKD which was a movement for the creation for Uttarakhand are stronger at the assembly level but has also been on the decline.

Just like UP it is best to start in 1998 LS election.  It was held when Uttarakhand  was part of UP but it is easy to split the Uttarakhand  data out. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2016, 04:31:08 pm »

1998 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  5                46.78%   

INC            5                  0                 19.91%   

AIIC(S)       1                  0                  3.56%   (AIIC(S) is a INC splinter)

BSP            5                  0                12.91%

SP             3                  0                 11.06%

UKD+        2                  0                  2.31%

BJP's domination here is clear.  BJP and INC do better in LS elections than Assembly elections.  But over time  the state will become bi-polar.  AIIC(S) will merge into INC again and BSP/SP will decline as the anti-BJP vote will begin to merge for the 1999 LS elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2016, 04:35:59 pm »

1999 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  4                39.07%   

INC            5                  1                 37.61%   

BSP            5                  0                12.20%

SP             5                  0                   6.09%

Again, for 1999 LS elections Uttarakhand was still part of UP but I can break out the results. Sonia Gandhi taking over of INC, the SP's failure to back a non-BJP government at the center, Upper Caste vs OBC conflict in the BJP all caused a surge in the INC vote share to pretty much pull even in terms of votes with BJP but BJP still manage a 4-1 win in terms of seats.

After Uttarakhand was formed the BJP formed the first government and was hopeful of being re-elected in the first Uttarakhand assembly elections of 2002.  UKD which was the movement that agitated for the creation of Uttarakhand made a big push in the 2002 assembly election which lead to a splintered vote that INC won by narrow margins in terms of vote share.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2016, 04:45:50 pm »

2002 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         70                19                25.75%  

BJP rebel                         1                  2.71%

INC          70                36                 26.89%

INC rebel                       2                   4.14%  

NCP         26                  1                   1.50%  (NCP is a INC splinter)

BSP         68                  7                 10.92%

SP           63                  0                   6.27%

UJP         44                  0                   2.42% (UJP is a SP splinter)

UKD        62                  4                   5.48%



INC won in a very close and splintered election.  Both BJP and INC were dogged by rebels but INC won a decisive victory in terms of seats.  As the 2004 LS election approached it is still a battle between INC and BJP but the SP was gaining due to the surge in SP in UP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2016, 04:51:22 pm »

2004 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  3                41.05%   

INC            5                  1                 38.38%   

BSP            3                  0                  6.78%

SP             5                  1                   7.95%

UKD          4                  0                   1.65%

BJP and INC mostly gained from BSP as the state became more bipolar but the SP surge in UP helped it to gain some votes and win a seat. 

As the 2007 Uttarakhand assembly election approached it seems that BSP regained some ground as the assembly election are not as polarized as LS election.  This time around the vote again is splintered but worked to the advantage of the BJP. 
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« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2016, 05:22:29 pm »

Jaichind has there ever been any talk of introducing PR in Indian states? Obviously illiteracy would prevent any particulatly complicated systems, but some of these results are pretty unproportional.
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« Reply #31 on: December 23, 2016, 09:14:14 am »

Jaichind has there ever been any talk of introducing PR in Indian states? Obviously illiteracy would prevent any particulatly complicated systems, but some of these results are pretty unproportional.

Not really.  I think they inherited the Westminster system and the social tensions between different communities so complex and turbulent that it is best to keep status quo.  India has not done a redistricting at the Lok Shaba level since 1971 mostly to prevent conflict over updated numbers on population distribution between different communities (Muslims Dalits etc etc). 
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: December 24, 2016, 09:25:22 pm »

2007 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         69                34                31.87%  

BJP rebel                         2                  2.84%  (includes BJP splinter BJS)

INC          69                21                 29.56%

INC rebel                       1                   2.72%  

NCP         26                  0                   1.67%

BSP         69                  8                 11.75%

SP           55                  0                   4.95%

UKD        61                  3                   5.49%



The slow polarization toward a two party system in the  Uttarakhand assembly elections continued but with BJP now having a small edge in terms of vote share and seats over INC and formed the government.  As the 2009 LS elections approached the 2008 Nuclear Deal crisis gave it an edge at the national level leading the INC winning a surprising large victory in Uttarakhand.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: December 24, 2016, 09:29:06 pm »

2009 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  0                33.86%  

INC            5                  5                 43.21%  

BSP            5                  0                15.26%

SP             2                  0                   1.83%

UKD          5                  0                   1.23%

INC won a clean sweep of the 5 seats.  Like in UP the SP lost the Muslim vote to INC who also gained from BJP.  BSP also consolidated the Dalit vote from both INC and BJP and gained vote share.  Based on this result the INC was confident that it will win back power in the 2012 assembly elections in Uttarakhand.  The creation of the BJP splinter URM which attracted the usually pro-BJP veteran vote added to the BJP woes.   It turned out it would be a lot closer than expected due to the large number of INC rebels.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 09:37:14 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: December 24, 2016, 09:34:44 pm »

2012 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         70                31                33.39%  

BJP rebel                         0                  3.11%  (includes BJP splinter URM)

INC          70                32                 34.04%

INC rebel                       3                   5.33%  

BSP         70                  3                 12.29%

SP           45                  0                   1.43%

SP rebel                         0                   1.29%

UKD        44                  1                   1.95%

UJP           2                  0                   0.69%



The consolidation of votes to a bipolar system continued.  BJP actually gained vote share but lost a few seats.  INC unexpectedly failed to gain a majority of seats.  INC then formed a government by getting the INC rebels, BSP and UKD to support INC to gain a majority.  The BJP also faced significant internal rebellion but the fact it kept it so close with anti-incumbency signaled continued resiliency of the BJP.  As a result when the Modi wave of 2014 LS came the BJP won a crushing victory in Uttarakhand.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: December 24, 2016, 09:41:21 pm »

2014 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  5                55.93%  

INC            5                  0                 34.40%  

BSP            5                  0                  4.78%

SP             3                  0                   0.40%

AAP          5                  0                   1.62%

The BJP landslide was mostly based on capturing the BSP Dalit base as the BSP was driven down to single digit vote share.  INC mostly held on its core vote but all anti-INC votes consolidated behind the BJP to give it a massive win.   It seems for the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly election the BJP should be a shoe-in to win.  Then the 2016 Uttarakhand Constitutional crisis intervened to reshuffle the deck and added extra volatility to the 2017 Assembly election.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 10:21:04 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: December 25, 2016, 10:05:36 am »

The source of the Uttarakhand constitutional crisis stems from the removal of the INC CM Vijay Bahuguna, whose father was an INC CM of UP back in the 1970s, in early 2014.  INC high command had done this to try to stem the BJP surge in Uttarakhand to salvage a seat or two in the upcoming LS election in 2014.   In his place INC high command put in was Harish Rawat who did not stem the BJP surge in the 2014 LS elections.

By early 2016 it was clear that the INC was in big trouble relative to the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections and the Bahuguna faction made their move.  Bahuguna and 8 other INC MLAs demanded that  Rawat be removed as CM and  Bahuguna be re-installed to lead the INC into battle against the BJP in 2017.  At this time INC had 36 MLAs (it gained 1 from a BSP defection and won 3 by-elections from BJP to go from 32 to 36) with outside support of the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) which consisted of 6 MLAs (2 remaining BSP MLAs, 1 UKD MLA, and 3 rebel INC MLAs) while the BJP had 28 MLAs.  The threat of the Bahuguna faction of 9 MLA was real in the sense that if you add these 9 MLAs to BJP 28 MLAs would give Bahuguna-BJP 37 MLAs and a majority.  Problem is the Anti-Defection law that stated that any party split which did not have the support of at least 1/3 of the party caucus is invalid and the splinter group could be expelled as an MLA by the Speaker.  So in that sense the Bahuguna rebellion is not valid because 36 INC MLAs + 6 PDF MLAs - 9 Bahuguna rebels = 33 MLAs which is still bigger than the 28 BJP MLAs. 

With that understanding the Uttarakhand INC rejected the Bahuguna faction ultimatum.  Then the Bahuguna faction did indeed rise in rebellion anyway claiming they are not breaking away from the INC but merely want a vote on who is CM.  Their plan is to work around the Anti-Defection law by not splitting the INC but in a vote for CM from an alliance with the BJP to defeat  Harish Rawat.  Problem with that is that in such a vote the INC will issue a whip for all INC MLAs to vote for Harish Rawat and violation of that whip would automatically expel 9 Bahuguna faction MLA from INC and be removed as MLAs.  As the vote was coming up the NDA central government claiming that the Uttarakhand government in chaos and put the state under "Governor's rule" which really means the NDA central government will take over from the Harish Rawat government.  The plan here seems to be for the BJP to control the Uttarakhand government, use that power to extract further INC MLAs to defect in order to clear the 1/3 threshold of the Anti-Defection law.  It was never clear why the BJP was doing this since they were a shoe-in to win the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections.  Surely one year does not make that much of a difference and the optics of this move would damage the BJP.

Sure enough, the India High Court ruled that putting a state under "Governor's rule" is illegal and countermanded it.  The vote of confidence took place after the INC Speaker expelled the 9 Bahuguna faction MLAs and the remaining INC-PDF MLAs beat by the BJP in the vote. 

This entire episode left the BJP with a worse image plus now they have to accommodate the 9 Bahuguna faction MLAs in their own ranks which would only add to rebellion to the original BJP members who now have to make space for the newcomers.

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jaichind
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« Reply #37 on: December 25, 2016, 10:11:50 am »

Last known polls for Uttarakhand were in October.  First is

Axis - India Today which has

BJP         43%    38-43
INC        39%     26-31
Others   18%        1-4


While UP/UK Live has a more negative view on BJP chances

BJP       20
INC      38
BSP       5
Others   7

One way or another the INC position is much better than it could have expected before the entire Uttarakhand constitutional crisis of Spring 2016.  I still think the BJP should win but the INC might avoid a total landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: December 25, 2016, 10:22:11 am »

Of course a major factor in all assembly elections in early 2017 (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur) would be the issue of demonetisation.  On US election night BJP PM Modi announced that all 500 and 1000 INR notes will be made invalid (this is around 85% of Indian money supply) and that all citizens has until Dec 30 to exchange all their 500 and 1000 notes for the new 500 and 2000 notes.  The purpose was in theory to hit the black economy but in reality it is also about moving India to a digital cash age and allow the government to have a higher tax base (right now only around 1.5% of Indian citizens pays income taxes.) 

This move was initially popular despite hardships of banks/ATM not being ready to support such a transition.  Modi promised that all hardships would be resolved by Dec 30.  As time went on it was clear that the execution of this, in theory, good idea is poor and there is no way problems would be resolved by the end of 2016.  One benefit for the BJP in places like UP is that this move wipes out value of large amounts of cash which cuts the SP money advantage as the ruling party in UP.  BJP and BSP which are more cadre parties are less affected by fundraising issues.  Of course in Jan and Feb when the issues of demonetisation are not resolved the BJP will take hits.  How much is not known.
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: December 25, 2016, 10:29:03 am »

In UP there are talks of a grand alliance of SP-INC-RLD and rumors that there are pretty advanced negiations.    The SP seems eager to get this deal done and has been pretty public about that.  The SP "deal" seems to be for SP to yield to INC-RLD 100 seats which would most likely be split 78-22.  It is said that INC is demanding at least 90 if not 100 by itself and also insist that if the alliances comes into power the INC will be able to appoint a Deputy CM.

As I pointed out before I am skeptical that such an alliance can be created and even more skeptical that it will work on the ground as this completely cedes the Upper Caste vote to the BJP and frees BJP up to throw their resources into winning the OBC vote with the help of Modi. OBC hostility toward INC will drag down SP's ability to compete with BJP for non-Yadav OBC votes.  The SP, I suspect, is pushing for this alliance more to try to marginalize its BSP rival to make sure that after a BJP victory SP is the main alternative to BJP and not BSP.  

If the INC goes along with this alliance and does not win the INC would be finished as a force in UP, not that it is no good shape right now, since it will forfeit its ability to  after the Upper Caste vote for at least several election cycles.   From the INC point of view, their preferred partner would be BSP.  A BSP-INC alliance allows the INC to continue to appeal to its traditional Upper Caste voters who are much more hostile to SP than BSP.  It also allows INC to try to go after the anti-incumbency vote.  Of course BSP feeling that it is its turn again to win would not consider such an alliance.
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« Reply #40 on: December 28, 2016, 08:46:15 am »

As I have expected, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav announced that SP will contest the election alone.  In a blow to to his son and UP CM Akhilesh Yadav he also announced that SP will not project a CM candidate and that SP MLAs will choose CM after SP captures a majority.  This is pretty much a vote of non-confidence in his son Akhilesh Yadav.  At this stage Akhilesh Yadav is pretty much the only positive asset SP has as he is fairly popular given his clean and developmental image.  If the UP assembly election becomes a battle of CM candidates then Akhilesh Yadav would actually put SP in the game. 

The backdrop of all this is the ongoing war between Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav who was made UP SP chief.  Both Shivpal Singh Yadav  and  Akhilesh Yadav came up with rival list of candidates with  Akhilesh Yadav  complaining opening that the Shivpal Singh Yadav list are filled with known criminal party hoppers and local dons which would destroy the clean and developmental image that Akhilesh Yadav has been projecting.  Of course Shivpal Singh Yadav would counterclaim that as UP SP chief he is in charge of the nomination process and the fact is these local dons are free agents and if SP does not sign them up they will sign up with BJP or BSP.

Looks like the SP campaign is a running disaster and they will get crushed and pushed to third place.  The election now will become BJP vs BSP.  The dynamic now will be for Muslim votes to line up behind BSP and perhaps some Yadav votes defect from SP to BJP to stop BSP.  BJP should have the edge in this battle.

It is clear that Mulayam Singh Yadav is prioritizing control of SP over a winning or even credible campaign.  He is perhaps hoping for a BJP landslide that wipes out BSP as well and after the elections he can reduce the power of Akhilesh Yadav with SP further and try to lead SP to  be the alternative to BJP.   One way out for Akhilesh Yadav  which puts him in a better position 5 years from now but is unlikely to take is for him to blot from SP and form his own rival SP party called, say, SP (Janata) where he would still accept  Mulayam Singh Yadav  as the godfather of the SP(J) but will expel  Shivpal Singh Yadav and followers from SP(J).  He could then create an alliance between SP(J), INC, and RLD splitting seats something like 200 150 50.  This combination would actually do well with Upper Caste votes and higher income OBCs and win some Muslim and Dalit votes along the way.  The BJP would still win a majority but SP(J)-INC-RLD might emerge as the alternative to BJP as opposed to BSP or SP especially if SP(J)-INC-RLD does better than SP and provoke defections en masse from SP to SP(J) after the elections.  I doubt    Akhilesh Yadav  has the guts to do this.
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« Reply #41 on: December 29, 2016, 12:34:09 pm »

DailyO which is part of the India Today group did a bunch of surveys in Nov and then Dec on the affect of demonetization on UP and came away with the following conclusions:

1) BJP was in a strong position in UP until demonetization and then their fortunes declined.
2) A lot of UP migrant laborers had to travel back to rural areas due to their wages not being paid due to demonetization
3) Due to demonetization factory output in UP fell 30%
4) Lots of women in UP are upset at demonetization due to the fact that their private stash of cash hidden away from their husbands are now being revealed since they have to exchange it for new bills
5) Despite demonetization Modi still remains popular in UP but this might decline if things do not get better after 12/30 as promised by Modi.
6) Akhilesh Yadav has a positive image and is significantly more popular than SP
7) Contrary to other polls in Dec where it looks like it will be BJP vs BSP this survey shows that it is BJP vs SP.  Out of the 75 administrative districts  in UP DailyO surveyed 71 and found the BJP ahead in 32, SP ahead in 30, BSP ahead in 7, and INC ahead in 1.
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: December 29, 2016, 12:46:11 pm »

A day after Mulayam Singh Yadav released a list of 325 (out of 403) SP candidates from his brother Shivpal Singh Yadav which are filled with supporters of Shivpal Singh Yadav and excludes supporters of CM Akhilesh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav  might be doing what I am suggesting, which is to split the SP.  

Today Akhilesh Yadav announced his own parallel list of 235 candidates filled with his supporters and excludes supportors of Shivpal Singh Yadav.  If nothing is done soon to reconcile these two lists then SP is headed for a split with a slate of candidates by the Akhilesh Yadav faction potentially running as rebels against the official SP candidates.

The game of tit-fo-tat between Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle  Shivpal Singh Yadav is getting pretty comical.  Since  Akhilesh Yadav is the CM he gets to decide who is in the cabinet and since Shivpal Singh Yadav is the president of SP in UP he gets to decide who to expel from the SP.  So over the last weeks or so we had more and more pro-Akhilesh Yadav MLAs who are in the cabinet being excluded from the offical SP list and also expelled from the SP.  At the same time  pro-Shivpal Singh Yadav MLAs while still being in SP are being ousted from the UP cabinet by Akhilesh Yadav but at the same time being on the official SP list of candidates.  So the UP SP cabinet while in theory a SP government are increasing being filled by SP rebels who are expelled from the SP for being to pro-Akhilesh Yadav relative to Shivpal Singh Yadav.

Just to be clear who are the big players in SP

SP founder and supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav



SP UP CM and son of of Mulayam Singh Yadav Akhilesh Yadav who is fairly popular in UP, at least relative to SP



SP UP President and brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav  Shivpal Singh Yadav who is a good behind the scenes person with fairly low popular appeal
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 12:51:24 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #43 on: December 29, 2016, 01:13:12 pm »

Reading about the battles between  Akhilesh Yadav vs Shivpal Singh Yadav who has the backing of Mulayam Singh Yadav reminds me a lot of the repeated history of Prince's revolts against their father the Mughal emperor. 

The Mughals did not have a succession  policy of Primogeniture although the eldest son was the default successor but was not legally binding.  This lead to battles among the sons of the emperor to battle for the throne which included rebellion against the emperor which was also true for the Ottoman empire as well.  Examples are Prince Salim's unsuccessful rebellion against his father Akbar the Great (1601-1604) but that did not stop him from coming to the throne as Jahangiri n 1605 when Akbar died.  Prince Khusrau then revolted unsuccessfully against Emperor Jahangir in 1606.  Prince Aurangzeb successful rebellion against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and bother Dara in 1659 and made himself emperor.  And Prince Akbar unsuccessful rebellion against Emperor Aurangzeb in 1681.

It seems the SP family feud is in keeping with tradition of Indian royalty.   
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« Reply #44 on: December 30, 2016, 09:54:34 am »

Akhilesh Yadav expelled from SP.  SP split inevitable.  Not clear how Akhilesh Yadav will respond. He could create a new party or try to capture SP.   He does have the support of the majority of SP MLAs. One sign for the future is Akhilesh Yadav list of 235 candidates seems to exclude candidates in seats that INC seem to want.  An Akhilesh Yadav-INC alliance without the burden of the old SP will attract Upper Caste and high income OBC votes, in other words,  the BJP base.  It might struggle to win Muslim votes of the old SP is still seen as viable. 
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« Reply #45 on: December 30, 2016, 04:36:03 pm »

If Akhilesh Yadav wants to stay on as CM he will need around 165 out of 229 SP MLAs to stick with him.  INC and RLD has 38 MLAs between them and will back Akhilesh Yadav. 125 SP MLAs were at Akhilesh Yadav's home within an hour of Akhilesh Yadav being expelled and a bunch more could not attend since they were out of town. Looks like it will be close if it came to a vore of no confidence.
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« Reply #46 on: December 30, 2016, 05:18:53 pm »

Ironically Akhilesh Yadav was not the only Indian CM expelled by his party in a 24 hour period.   In the tiny Northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh the CM Pema Khandu was expelled by the ruling PPA which is an INC splinter that is allied with BJP for plotting to merge PPA with BJP.  Looks like PPA will install the 5th CM of Arunachal Pradesh this year. 
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« Reply #47 on: December 30, 2016, 09:47:17 pm »

Yesterday the battle between the  Akhilesh Yadav faction and the Mulayam Singh Yadav faction was List vs List.  Today it is Meeting vs Meeting.  Both Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav decided to hold parallel meetings of all SP MLAs. Akhilesh Yadav's meeting is at 9AM and Mulayam Singh Yadav's meetings is at 10:30AM.  How many SP MLAs attends each respectively meeting will give us a sense on the balance of power between the two factions.  It is very similar to the 1969 split of the INC between the Indira Gandhi faction (which became INC(R)) and the Anti-Indira Gandhi Syndicate  faction (which became INC(O) where both factions held a meeting of all INC MPs on the same say which was a test of strength of the relative balance of power between the two factions.  Of course a couple of INC MPs hedged their bets and attend both meetings.  We might see some SP MLAs do the same Smiley
« Last Edit: December 30, 2016, 11:13:21 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #48 on: December 30, 2016, 09:51:49 pm »

Note that along with Akhilesh Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav, cousin of Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle of  Akhilesh Yadav and close confidant of  Akhilesh Yadav was also expelled.

 

Ram Gopal Yadav is a Rajya Sabha MP while his daughter is a Lok Sabha MP.   Akhilesh Yadav's wife, Dimple Yadav, is a Lok Sabha MP.
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« Reply #49 on: December 31, 2016, 11:43:50 am »

Almost 200 MLAs showed to Akhilesh Yadav's meeting whereas only around 20 MLA showed up to Mulayam Singh Yadav's meeting.  The result was clear.  After this show of strength,  Akhilesh Yadav visited Mulayam Singh Yadav who with Shivpal Singh Yadav, yielding to reality, took Akhilesh Yadav back into SP.  At Akhilesh Yadav's instance,  Ram Gopal Yadav was also taken back.  It is a complete victory for Akhilesh Yadav.  Mulayam Singh Yadav has accepted the reality that SP is now Akhilesh Yadav's SP party.   A lot of Indians are tweeting about how this is just like  Prince Aurangzeb's successful rebellion against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and bother Dara in 1659 and made himself emperor.  In the coming days we will see how Akhilesh Yadav will handle the candidate list issues as well as the issue of alliance with INC and RLD.

 
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