India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

 C-Voter exit poll indicates that BJP increased its vote share among Muslims by 4.1% but lost around 10% of the Patel vote. India Today exit poll indicates that 27 seats will be within 1-2% which if INC wins most of them could give INC a narrow victory.  If so and the BJP does win then it could be the Muslim vote, ironically, that saved BJP.

[jaichind]

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll   BJP   Congress
ABP-CSDS                         35-41   26-32
Zee News-Axis                     51         17
News X                             42-50   18-24
News Nation                      43-47   19-23
Sahara Samay                     46         21
Today's Chanakya                 55        13
India Today                        47-55   13-20
ABP-CSDS                           38         29

[jaichind]

Gujarat       Exit Poll     BJP    Congress
Today's Chanakya       135          47
News Nation               109          70
ABP-CSDS                  110          71
Times Now                 109          70
Republic                     115          65
Sahara                   110-120    65-75
TV-9                           108          74
India Today             99-113     68-82

[jaichind]

Gujarat exit poll average

                                BJP           INC       Others
Today's Chanakya       135          47            0
News Nation               109          70            3
ABP-CSDS                  117          64            1
Times Now                 109          70            2
Republic                     115          65            2
Sahara                       112          68            2
TV-9                          108          74            0
Nirmama                    104          74            4
India Today                106          75            1
---------------------------------------------------------
W Today's Chanakya   113          67            2
Wo Today's Chanakya  110         70            2

[jaichind]

HP exit polls average
                                          BJP       INC       Others
Today's Chanakya                 55        13             0
ABP-CSDS                            38        29             1
Zee News-Axis                     51         17             0
News X                                46        21             1
News Nation                         45        21             2
Sahara Samay                     46         21             1
India Today                         51         16             1
ABP-CSDS                           38         29             1
C-Voter                                41        25             1
-------------------------------------------------------------
W Today's Chanakya             46         21            1
Wo Today's Chanakya           45         22            1

[jaichind]

Using my exit poll to projection algroithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

For Gujarat:
Times Now pre-elction poll was BJP 111 INC 68 got slightly more pro-INC
India Today Pre-election poll was 123 INC 58 got more pro-INC
ABP-CSDS pre-election poll was 95 INC 72 got more pro-BJP
Republic TV pre-election poll was BJP 117 INC 61 got more pro-INC

Its a mixed bag with a slight pro-INC momentum so I will go with the third best INC poll for a projection of  BJP 108  INC  74.  But since there is a slight pro-INC momentum plus it is a swing against the incumbent there is still a need to add a few seats to INC which gives us

BJP         103
INC          78
Others       1


For HP

C-Voter pre-election poll was BJP 52 INC 15 which got more pro-INC
ABP-CSDS pre-election poll was 42 INC 25 which is flat
Axix pre-election poll was BJP 45 INC 23 which got more pro-BJP

So it seems that the momentum was flat.  I will then go with the exit poll average without Today's Chanakya which gives us BJP 45 INC 22.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent we need to add a few seats to the opposition victorious party as well as take into account that HP tends to have fairly uniform swings which tends to give large seats swings for small vote share swings.  This would give us

BJP      51
INC      16
Others   1

[jaichind]

If my projection ends up being accurate it is a fairly significant recovery of INC relative to 2014 and makes the results looks more in line with 2009 LS elections.

For Gujarat 2009 and 2014 LS vote share and assembly segment leads are

2014     vote share      leads
BJP            60.1%       165   
INC+         34.4%        17

2009     vote share      leads
BJP            46.5%       105   
INC            43.4%        76


For HP  2009 and 2014 LS vote share and assembly segment leads are

2014     vote share      leads
BJP            53.9%        59   
INC+         41.1%          9

2009     vote share      leads
BJP            49.6%         48
INC            45.6%        20

[jaichind]

BJP Upper House MP  Sanjay Kakade (who was elected as an independent in Maharashtra then joined BJP) said that a detailed survey he conducted in Gujarat of voting intentions shows that BJP will lose its majority and most likely finish behind INC.  He indicated that all the exit polls are off.  BJP "ally" SHS  head Uddhav Thackeray indicated the same based on his grassroots reports in Gujarat.   We will see soon.

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis

Exit polls average show BJP 116 INC 65


Back in 2012 BJP underperformed exit polls


Exit polls historically underestimated the scale of victory



Men turnout increased and Women turnout decreased.  Men tend to vote INC, women tend to vote BJP


Patels swing away from BJP.  Dalis and tribals swing toward BJP


Muslims and rural voters tend to be fore INC.  Upper Caste Dalits and urban voters tend to vote BJP


BJP victory chance at 90%


Medium BJP seat count is around 115

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat
BJP      6 (--)
INC+   2 (--)

HP
BJP     0
INC     0

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
BJP    10 (--)
INC+   2 (--)

HP  (out of 68)
BJP     0
INC     0

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
                 vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    22         --            -2
INC+   5         --            +2

HP  (out of 68)
                vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP     0
INC     0

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
                 vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    24         --            -3
INC+   7         --            +3

HP  (out of 68)
                vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP     0
INC     0

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      36        +1           -5
INC+   10         --           +5
Others   0         -1            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a tie between BJP and INC (39 vs 37))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
INC       1       --              +1
BJP       0       --              -1
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (21 vs 9))

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      49         --             -8
INC+   16         +2           +8
Others   0         -2            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (61 vs 39))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
INC       1       --              +1
BJP       0       --              -1
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      62         +2           -17
INC+   25         --            +17
Others   1         -2            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (84 vs 52))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP       4        -2               -3
INC       2       +1              +2
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))

[jaichind]

Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      66         -1           -21
INC+   32         +3          +21
Others   0         -2             --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (90 vs 55))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP       7       +1               -2
INC       2       -2               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))

[jaichind]

Counting begins (mostly postal but some real results) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      74         -4           -29
INC+   42         +6          +28
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 63))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      12      +5               -2
INC       4       -6               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (32 vs 10))

[jaichind]

Counting begins - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      73       -12            -44
INC+   56       +14           +43
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (105 vs 65))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      13      +5               -2
INC       4       -6               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (32 vs 10))

[jaichind]

NDTV project 66% chance of BJP victory in Gujarat.  Based on exit polls it was 90% chance.  Count so far is better for INC than exit polls.

[jaichind]

Counting begins - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      71       -17            -55
INC+   67       +19           +54
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      14      +5               -3
INC       5       -6               +2
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (33 vs 10))

[jaichind]

INC is catching up fast in Gujarat.  BJP might be in trouble.  Most likely BJP will put it out but it will be close. 

[jaichind]

Counting begins - leads

BJP INC now neck-to-neck !!

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      75       -20            -61
INC+   74       +22           +60
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      14      +4               -7
INC      10      -4               +6
Others   1      --                +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (33 vs 10))

[jaichind]

Counting begins - leads

BJP back to a slight lead

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      87       -20            -65
INC+   80       +23           +64
Others   1         -3             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (88 vs 90))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      21      +9               -10
INC      14      -9                +8
Others   2      --                 +2   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (26 vs 22))

[jaichind]

HP seems closer to than expected.  This night not going BJP's way so far.