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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat  (Read 32578 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #500 on: December 19, 2017, 07:31:11 am »

I think these results are great


BJP still wins but with a reduced majority which should send a message to Modi that he needs to start to deliver more on his promises instead of just being a non congress pm.

Well, these set of elections show that when NDA is the incumbent at the state level the results are not that great (although better than INC.)  BJP really lost Goa and formed the government because of INC incompetence.  In Punjab SAD-BJP got crushed.  And now in Gujarat BJP lost ground despite the election being turned unto Modi-Amit Shah vs Rahul Gandhi in the Modi-Shah home state.  With BJP having to defend MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in late 2018.  MP will lean BJP but Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will be tossups on if INC can defeat BJP.  Most likely BJP will have to turn populist to prevent defeat in 2018.

In many ways Modi have been trying the economic reform path.  Demonetization was an ok idea but was not executed well. GST is a great idea but had a botched roll-out  I suspect what we seen from BJP is the extend of reforms until 2019.    BJP will most likely still win in 2019 and another round of reforms is possible after 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #501 on: December 19, 2017, 07:41:01 am »

In many ways this Gujarat election was pretty sad. Neither BJP nor INC had any real local charismatic leader that can be the CM candidate and lead the campaign.  When BJP realized they were in trouble they pretty much had Modi and Amit Shah move and live in Gujarat this last month.  INC had to import local youth Patel Dalit and OBC leaders plus just hand the campaign over to Rahul Gandhi to run and lead.  In the end both weaknesses canceled each other out.  INC was able to take advantage of the Patel rebellion but that led to a OBC swing to BJP.  INC was also not able to take advantage of Upper Caste-Dalit conflict to swing back the Dalit vote toward INC.  On the other hand the Modi attempt to polarize around anti-Pakistan (read Muslim) feelings just like 2002 did not seem to have worked that well either.  

It also seems INC rebel Shankersinh Vaghela (ex BJP leader and former mentor of Modi as well as former RJP CM) splinter movement went nowhere and now INC has show it can do well without the Shankersinh Vaghela bloc of votes which was never that large in the first place, especially in a FPTP BJP vs INC election.  Most of the pro-Shankersinh Vaghela INC MLA defectors to BJP all lost to the INC candidate.  At least now with Shankersinh Vaghela clearly out of INC politics INC can try to build local mass leaders.  2022 will be won by the party that can build real local leaders.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #502 on: December 19, 2017, 09:08:32 am »

Lets review my post-exit poll prediction model which is

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

From Gujarat I projected
Its a mixed bag with a slight pro-INC momentum so I will go with the third best INC poll for a projection of  BJP 108  INC  74.  But since there is a slight pro-INC momentum plus it is a swing against the incumbent there is still a need to add a few seats to INC which gives us

BJP         103
INC          78
Others       1

Real result being

BJP         99
INC+      80
Others      3

I was pretty close to the real result.  I think INC+ over-performed relative to vote share due to it winning a bunch of marginal seats in Saurashtra.


For HP I projected
So it seems that the momentum was flat.  I will then go with the exit poll average without Today's Chanakya which gives us BJP 45 INC 22.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent we need to add a few seats to the opposition victorious party as well as take into account that HP tends to have fairly uniform swings which tends to give large seats swings for small vote share swings.  This would give us

BJP      51
INC      16
Others   1

Real result being

BJP         44
INC         21
Others      3

I underestimated INC a bit and the result ended up being around the average of exit polls instead of my projection.  I still feel that BJP won a vote share that is more representative of the result I projected.  From a vote share point of view and assuming uniform swing my project should have been the result  and not what too place.  It seems INC over-performed in marginal battleground seats giving it more seats that the vote share it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #503 on: December 20, 2017, 09:36:56 pm »

In a shock, BJP's HP CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal who was CM of HP in 1998-2003 and 2007-2012 was defeated in Sujanpur.



What took place was a old Prem Kumar Dhumal protege Rajinder Singh perused the BJP ticket for  Sujanpur in 2012 and was passed up.  He ran as a BJP rebel and won the seat in 2012.  This time around, certain of the BJP landslide, Prem Kumar Dhumal  decided to run in Sujanpur against Rajinder Singh who has since joined the INC.  In a total shock Rajinder Singh defeated his old mentor by a tiny margin.  Now the BJP will have to scramble to pick a CM with the possible side effect of internal rebellion by factions opposed to who the BJP picks.  Also  Prem Kumar Dhumal  will be waiting in the wings to get elected in a by-election and become an alternative center of power to the CM the BJP picked.

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jaichind
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« Reply #504 on: December 21, 2017, 07:25:35 am »

Today is voting for the TN assembly RK Nagar Bypoll.  The seat was vacated a year ago with the death of TN CM Jayalalitha.  The April by-poll which was turning into a AIADMK(EPS) vs AIADMK(Sasikala-OPS) vs DMK  was canceled  when AIADMK(sasikala-OPS)  leader and candidate TTV Dhinakaran was accused of  vot buying.  In the meantime EPS and OPS has merged leaving  Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran out in the cold leading a rebel AIADMK faction.

Today's election is DMK vs AIADMK vs AIADMK rebel TTV Dhinakaran with a weak BJP also running.    Up until now it seems a tight 3 way race.  As the voting took place today a shot in the arm for DMK took place when CBI special court acquitted several key DMK leaders in the 2G spectrum scam.  The 2G  spectrum scam which mostly trapped key DMK leaders as part of the UPA government in 2011 was key in leading to the defeat of DMK in the 2011 assembly elections and also added to the UPA defeat in 2014 and lead to the rise of Modi.  This acquittal will add tremendously to the DMK  and if TTV Dhinakaran does well in today's by-election (like come in second place or better) then 2019 LS election will see a divided AIADMK versus a surging DMK where a DMK-INC alliance could sweep the polls.

AIADMK above all else must avoid coming in  third place in today's byelection.  A strong showing by TTV Dhinakaran could mean the flow of defections which has been in favor of AIADMK from the TTV Dhinakaran rebel faction could reverse.  TTV Dhinakaran controls the main AIADMK money machine while the EPS-OPS AIADMK controls most of the cadres.  It will be a battle of money vs organization with DMK most likely now to win.

Various BJP sources are saying that AIADMK is doing poorly and the race as turned into DMK vs TTV Dhinakaran.
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jaichind
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« Reply #505 on: December 21, 2017, 07:27:04 am »

Leaked early exit polls has TTV Dinakaran ahead with 37%.  Nightmare for EPS-OPS led AIADMK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #506 on: December 21, 2017, 10:19:08 pm »

RK Nagar by-election exit poll has

AIAMDK rebel  TTV Dinakaran   37%
AIADMK                                  26%
DMK                                       18%
BJP                                          2%
Others                                    17%

Not sure what this Others 17% is since all the other candidates are fairly minor.  Most likely they are "refused to answer."   10% said they were offered cash to vote for a particular candidate.   The going rate seems to be around $100. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #507 on: December 23, 2017, 05:55:42 pm »

RK Nagar by-election result to come out over the next few hours.  What is funny is that the April RK Nagar by-election was halted because of allegations of massive vote buying.  The market back then was around $70 a vote.  This time it seems the vote buying is just as massive and blatant but the market rate has gone up to $100 a vote.  Also back in April it seems that it was AIADMK(Sasikala-OPS) TTV Dinakaran that was doing the vote buying.  It was assumed that it was AIADMK rebel TTV Dinakaran that is the force behind the vote buying. But reports from the ground seems to show that it is the official AIADMK(EPS-OPS) camp that is doing most of the vote buying despite the fact that it is well know that TTV Sasikala-Dinakaran is the money power behind AIADMK.  I guess with AIADMK(EPS-OPS) in change of TN state government they have resources too now to throw into the election. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #508 on: December 23, 2017, 09:10:19 pm »

Vote counting to start soon.  If we look at the 3 blocs (DMK, AIADMK, AIADMK rebel TTV) and look at a game theory view of their ranked preferences on how the 3 blocs finish I think it would be:

                                 DMK      AIADMK      TTV
DMK-AIADMK-TTV          2             3           4/5
DMK-TTV-AIADMK          1           4/5            3
AIADMK-DMK-TTV        4/5            1             6
AIADMK-TTV-DMK          6             2           4/5
TTV-DMK-AIADMK          3             6             1
TTV-AIADMK-DMK        4/5          4/5            2

DMK want to win but also prioritize AIADMK TTV rebels doing well to help keep it viable so it can split the AIADMK(EPS-OPS) vote in the future.  AIADMK and TTV both view each other as the main enemy than the DMK since this election is also about an AIADMK civil war.  Beating DMK is secondary to both blocs.  Both AIADMK(EPS-OPS) and AIADMK rebel TTV are looking to knock the other side out and claim complete and undisputed mantel of Jalaylalitha's AIADMK. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #509 on: December 23, 2017, 09:53:10 pm »

There is one postal vote which DMK won

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jaichind
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« Reply #510 on: December 23, 2017, 09:55:10 pm »

After first round it is

TTV          598
AIADMK    243
DMK         120

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jaichind
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« Reply #511 on: December 23, 2017, 10:19:29 pm »

TTV          822
AIADMK    423
DMK         184



Looks like DMK is on its way out of this race.  It will be TTV vs AIADMK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #512 on: December 23, 2017, 10:26:02 pm »

TTV         1891
AIADMK    646
DMK         360


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jaichind
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« Reply #513 on: December 23, 2017, 10:30:06 pm »

TTV         5399
AIADMK   2737
DMK        1181

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jaichind
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« Reply #514 on: December 23, 2017, 10:35:12 pm »

Celebrations start at TTV residence
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jaichind
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« Reply #515 on: December 23, 2017, 11:11:31 pm »

Counting has stopped as AIADMK supporters attack ECI officials. Paramilitary forces brought in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #516 on: December 23, 2017, 11:16:56 pm »

TTV         7276
AIADMK   2738
DMK        1182

(this seems incomplete as the count stop might have stopped other AIADMK and DMK votes from being in the total)

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jaichind
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« Reply #517 on: December 23, 2017, 11:18:41 pm »

BJP is behind NOTA


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jaichind
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« Reply #518 on: December 24, 2017, 06:29:18 am »

With the count almost done it is

TTV         86474  (50.1%)
AIADMK   47118  (27.3%)
DMK        24075  (14.0%)



So the exit polls mostly got it right although they underestimated TTV's lead

There seems to be a lot of DMK->TTV tactical voting.  DMK usuuall gets around 35%-40% of the vote in RK Nagar but it seems the main issue in this election was the leadership of the AIADMK so DMK voters voted their preference
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jaichind
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« Reply #519 on: December 24, 2017, 06:36:31 am »

Vellore AIADMK MP B.Senguttuvan who was previously in TTV Dhinakaran camp and had moved EPS-OPS faction is once again back with TTV. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #520 on: December 24, 2017, 06:43:25 am »

The AIADMK candidate is the ex-MLA of this district when Jayalalitha had contested elsewhere so he is a very credible candidate.  This level of defeat for both AIADMK and DMK is a shock.
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jaichind
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« Reply #521 on: December 24, 2017, 06:53:59 am »

I think we are done

TTV         89013  (50.3%)
AIADMK   48306  (27.3%)
DMK        24651  (13.9%)
NTK           3645   (2.1%) (extreme Tamil nationalist party)
NOTA         2348   (1.3%) (None of the above)
BJP            1436   (0.8%)

Looks like 4.6% voted for various miscellaneous independent candidates.  In that sense the exit poll having 17% for others which seems crazy did seem to get that trend kind of right although not the scale.  I figured it was no way in such a polarized election that the various "others" can get anything more than 1%-2%.

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jaichind
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« Reply #522 on: December 24, 2017, 07:17:49 am »

It seems the power of the AIADMK two leaves symbol



Is overrated.  AIADMK(EPS-OPS) won the ECI case to win over the symbol which lead to an exodus  of TTV supporters over to AIADMK(EPS-OPS) but it seems that the number of voters that vote two leaves no matter way seems is smaller than expected.
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« Reply #523 on: December 24, 2017, 07:20:02 am »

The alleged amount of money dumped into this by-election breaks all Indian election records by far.  So in the end it seems TTV dumped more money into this race then many had expected even though the ground level reports seems to indicate that AIADMK(EPS-OPS) vote buying exceeded TTV.
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jaichind
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« Reply #524 on: December 24, 2017, 08:09:09 am »

DMK's poor performance are raising talk that DMK threw this race on purpose and had their key voting blocs vote TTV to sew chaos in the AIADMK camp.  If that is the case they risk TTV taking over the AIADMK completely and emerge as a rival to DMK-INC in 2019 given the usually large nature of TTV's victory. 
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