India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

Interesting split in the UP SP. But what will happen with SP elsewhere? And what happened with the merger off SP, JD (U), JD (S), RJD, BJD, INLD etc.

SP is pretty weak outside of UP other than a small presence in Uttarakhand.  The Uttarakhand unit of SP has been pushing for Dimple Yadav, wife of Akhilesh Yadav and SP MP, to lead the campaign in Uttarakhand since her family was originally from what is now Uttarakhand.  So it is clear that the Uttarakhand branch of SP also backs Akhilesh Yadav.

The proposed merger of the various JD parties (SP JD(U) JD(S) INLD RJD and SJP) (not BJD, they never signed up for this) went nowhere and was pretty much dead when Mulayam Singh Yadav took SP out of the Bihar Grand Alliance in 2015 which served him ill anyway as SP got nowhere in the Bihar 2015 elections and the Grand Alliance won a landslide without SP.

[jaichind]

ECI is asking both SP factions to submit “signed affidavits” of SP MLAs by Jan 9th so ECI can get a sense on the relative strength of the two factions within the SP caucus.  If so and with 200+ SP MLAs backing Akhilesh Yadav this is a battle that the Akhilesh Yadav will easily win. 

[jaichind]

The last large state to have elections in early 2017 is Punjab.  The history of Punjab is quite interesting.  First we have British Punjab which was huge



But was split both in terms of religion (there are Muslims Hindu and ShKh areas) and language (there are Hindi and Punjabi areas) which overlap each other.  







In 1947 during the India-Pakistan partition Punjab was divided between India and Pakistan.  




Within India Punjab HP was split out right away as an union territory (becoming a state in 1971.)   Punjab then was what is Punjab and Haryana today.  SAD which was the party of the Sikhs pushed for a partition of Punjab into what is now Punjab and Haryana in 1967 so there can be a Punjabi speaking state which also happens to have a Sikh majority.  The Sikh majority part was a feature and not a bug since SAD sought to create a state it as THE Sikh party could dominate.  Punjab and Haryana share Chandigarh (which is a union territory) as its capital.

This leaves us with this as Punjab which is is all Punjabi speaking but still has Sikh and Hindu areas


Sikhism in theory has no caste but in reality Hindu converts to Sikhism took their caste identifies with them.  SAD is dominated by the landowning and farming Sikh Jats and claims to be the party of the Sikhs.   Punjab also has a high concentration of Dalits (around 30% of the population) of which there are Sikh and Hindu Dalits.  BJS which is proto-BJP was strong in the Hindu part of Punjab especially in a state where Hindus are the minority.  

In the 1960s and 1970s Punjab politics revolve around INC vs SAD in Sikh areas and INC vs BJS in Hindu areas.  The power of INC helped to create anti-INC alliances including SAD BJP as well as CPM and CPI and lead to some short lived SAD led United Front governments.  The attack on the Golden Temple, assassination of Indira Gandhi, and anti-Sikh riots led to greater militancy on the Sikh side leading to the creation of the radical pro-independence SAD(M) splinter in the 1980s.  BSP which appealed to the large Dalit population also grew in the 1980s are INC declined.  By the late 1980s Punjab was in virtual civil war with direct central government control and SAD pretty much boycotted LS and Assembly elections of 1992 which brought in a INC government.  The INC government, even though it lacked a real mandate actually managed to pacify the pro-independence Sikh insurrection to the point where things were normal by 1995.  At the same time the radical SAD(M) declined and the moderate SAD gained ground.  

So the best way to go over recent Punjab election history would be to start with 1996 LS election since that is the first real election after the end of the Punjab insurrection.  The history of Punjab elections after 1996 is really about the opposites SAD (party of moderate Sikh nationalism) and BJP (party of Hindu nationalism) teaming up to take on INC which has strength in both Sikh and Hindu areas.  Both INC and SAD as large number of rebels and SAD as a bunch of splinters which often affect their performance.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                 40.33%  (BSP and JD was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       7                 0                   3.85%

INC           13                2                  35.10%   

INC rebel                       0                   2.74%

BJP             6                0                    6.48%

CPM+         6                0                    4.29%

SAD allied with BSP and since INC has the trouble of double incumbency at the national and regional level was able to defeat INC.  The 1996 LS election threw up a hung parliament with BJP being the largest party.  Seeing a chance to resume the 1970s alliance between SAD and BJS to its benefit in the next Punjab assembly election in 1997, SAD backed BJP to form a short lived government at the center.    But this formed the basis of a SAD-BJP alliance for the 1997 Punjab assembly election, dumping BSP along the way.  In response INC roped in CPI while BSP joined SAD(M).   Given the long INC rule in Punjab the result in 1997 was a return to power by SAD.

[Shadows]

Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

Based on your Exit poll data, the INC looks quite weak & gets too few seats. While the other 30 is okay & would consolidate seats of smaller parties giving a decisive edge in marginal seats, 100 seats will be a waste for INC.

If the SP led faction wants to come to power, then I think INC should fight 60-70 at best & SP fight atleast over 300 seats.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1997 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               94                 46.80%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       2                   3.15%

INC+        117              16                 29.94% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       3                    3.67%

BSP+        96                 2                 10.58% (SAD(M) was part of BSP+)

CPM+        52                0                    2.34% (JD was part of CPM+)



As expected SAD was was turned to power with BJP as its junior partner.  In 1998 a mid-term LS election was called was the United Front government there fell.   This time INC decided to bring in BSP to try to counter SAD-BJP but to no avail since SAD was in the middle of its honeymoon period.

[jaichind]

Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

Based on your Exit poll data, the INC looks quite weak & gets too few seats. While the other 30 is okay & would consolidate seats of smaller parties giving a decisive edge in marginal seats, 100 seats will be a waste for INC.

If the SP led faction wants to come to power, then I think INC should fight 60-70 at best & SP fight atleast over 300 seats.

Yes, but INC could correctly counter argue that it has 6%-7% vote support in UP and if that can be transferred to its alliance partner (a very big IF) then in a state like UP where it is split 3- and 4- ways 30%-35% of the vote would be enough for a majority an extra 6%-7% vote share is very valuable and INC should be paid for this value.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        12               12                 48.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       4                 0                   2.73%

INC+         13                0                  41.89%  (BSP and CPI were part of INC+)

CPM+         4                1                    5.24%

The sitting UF PM, Inder Kumar Gujral of JD decided to contest in Punjab and out of respect SAD+ did not contest and aided him to defeat the INC candidate.  The INC grand alliance of INC-BSP-CPI failed to defeat SAD+ at the peak of its popularity and a NDA government was installed at the center.  It did not last after AIADMK pulled out of NDA and another LS election was called in 1999.  This time around INC+ had the upper hand since enough time has passed for anti-incumbency to weigh down the SAD+ government in Punjab.  Worse for SAD was the creation of SAD splinter SHSAD which allied with BSP.  At the same time CPM decided to jump abroad the INC+ train to oppose BJP.  The result was an INC+ victory.

[jaichind]

Punjab 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                3                 40.46%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SHSAD+    12                1                 12.34% (BSP and SAD(M) were part of SHSAD+)

INC+         13                9                 44.36%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

INC+ won in Punjab in a polarized election but NDA won overall in India. The next battle is the 2002 Punjab assembly election where SAD was clearly in trouble given the 1999 LS election result.  Both INC and SAD were fighting massive rebellions in their respective parties as SAD splinter LBP was formed.  INC+ managed to eak out a win mostly by beating BJP in Hindu areas even as SAD managed to maintain its seat share in the Sikh areas.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               44                 37.09%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       4                   3.50%
LBP           38                 0                   1.17%  (LBP was a SAD splinter)                    

SAD(M)      84                0                   4.65%  (SAD spliter SHSAD ran under the SAD(M) symbol)

INC+        117             64                  38.33% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       5                    4.77%
NCP           39                0                    0.90% (NCP was a INC splinter at the national level)

BSP         100                0                    5.69%  


 
INC+ came back into power with a smaller than expected margin.  It was mostly done in by INC rebels in Sikh areas which allowed SAD to win a bunch of unexpected seats.  After this election SHSAD returned to SAD which strengthened SAD and as anti-incumbency weight down on the INC government the 2004 LS election would produce a SAD+ victory.  

[jaichind]

Punjab 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                44.76%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
SAD(M)+     7                0                  5.63%  (SAD splinter LBP was part of SAD(M)+)

INC+         13                2                 38.53%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

BSP           13                0                  7.67%

At the national level UPA actually won an unexpected victory despite the INC+ defeat in Punjab.  Of course this election bods ill for the INC+ Punjab government when it comes up for re-election in 2007.  Worse the relationship between INC and CPI/CPM has declined since UPA came into power at the national level which meant INC and CPI/CPM has lost a common enemy.  As a result INC will contest in 2007 with an alliance with CPI.  The result was a SAD+ victory although most of the SAD+ gains were in the Hindu areas where BJP gained versus INC. 

[jaichind]

Punjab 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       116               67                 45.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       1                   1.11%
        
SAD(M)      37                0                   0.52%  

INC           116             44                  40.90%  

INC rebel                       4                    3.03%
 
BSP         115                0                    4.13%

CPI+         48                0                    1.36%  (SAD splinter LBP and CPM was part of CPI+) 



SAD+ came back to power as expected.  Even more positive for SAD is the SAD(M) was catastrophic and this election is the death nail of the radical SAD(M) faction which in the future could no longer dog SAD on the Sikh nationalism flank.  BSP's decline continued which helped INC but it was not enough.  Just like in 2004 when the 2009 LS election arrived anti-incumbency began to weigh in on SAD and INC was expected to do well in the 2009 LS election despite the fact that INC relationship with CPM/CPI worsened over the US nuclear deal since CPI/CPM themselves have declined in Punjab to be very trivial players.  The result was an edge for INC+ but not SAD+ kept it close from a vote share point of view.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                 5                43.92%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
LBP+          6                 0                  1.48%  (CPI and CPM were part of LBP+ which is SAD splinter)

INC           13                8                 45.23%  

BSP           13                0                  5.75%



INC held a edge but the victory was not decisive even as UPA did well at the national level.  LBP itself merged back into SAD after the election.  But SAD also suffered another split with SAD splinter PPP being formed which looped in CPI and CPM as allies.  The track record of the incumbant being ousted from power plus the PPP split seems to indicate that INC will win in 2012 assembly election.  The result was a complete surprise where SAD+ came back to power.  What took place was in Sikh areas PPP actually took away anti-SAD votes and swung seats from INC to SAD while INC did make gains against BJP in Hindu areas.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               68                 45.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       0                   1.22%
proto-LIF     2                 2                   0.72%  (this is the Bains Brothers)        

PPP+        115                0                   6.14% (CPM and CPI were part of PPP+)

INC           117             46                  40.90%  

INC rebel                       1                    2.21%
 
BSP         117                0                    4.29%



In a surprise SAD+ was returned to power as PPP ending up hurting INC more than SAD.  The Bains brothers who has been associated with SAD in the past and are powerful kingpins in the Ludhiana area also pushed their way into the assembly.  They recently formed LIF and allied themselves with AAP so I call them proto-LIF.  After this election PPP allied with INC and backed INC in the 2014 LS election.  With SAD saddled with two term anti-incumbency one would think INC will do well in Punjab in the 2014 LS election.  They ended up not doing well due to the rise of AAP in Punjab which took the anti-SAD+ votes.

[jaichind]

Punjab 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                 6                35.14%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
proto-LIF     1                 0                  1.53%  (this is the Bains Brothers)

INC           13                3                 33.19%  

AAP           13                4                 24.47%

BSP           13                0                  1.91%



It became a 3 way fight with a slight edge for SAD+.  BSP is hitting rock due to the rise of AAP.  As the 2017 Punjab Assembly election approaches it seems for a while that it will be a AAP landslide.  Then both SAD+ and INC steadied themselves.   PPP merged into INC while a more even split between the anti-SAD+ vote gave the SAD+ a better chance to fight two term anti-incumbency.   The Bains Brothers formed LIF and will be allied with AAP.  Polls seems to show a even 3 way race between the 3 blocs now.

[jaichind]

As expected Akhilesh Yadav is winning the war of affidavits.  SP has 229 MLA 64 MLCs (UP state Upper House members elected by various local/village assemblies) 5 LS MP and 19 RS MPs.  It seems Akhilesh Yadav has affidavits of 4 LS MPs (the 5th one is Mulayam Singh Yadav and one of the other 4 is his own wife Dimple Yadav and the other 3 are all members of the Yadav clan so it seems even within the Yadav Clan Akhilesh Yadav has majority support), most of the 19 RS MPs, 200+ of MLAs and 54 MLCs.   One of the MLAs backing Akhilesh Yadav is actually ex-QED MLA Sighbatullah Ansari.  Akhilesh Yadav was dead set against the SP-QED merger and refused to re-nominate members of the Ansari clan.  It seems even the Ansari clan are going over to Akhilesh Yadav just to hope that they get nominated.

[jaichind]

India Today Axix poll as BJP ahead in Goa.  

BJP          20-24           21  (flat from 2012)
INC         13-15           14 (+5 from 2012)
AAP           2-4               3 (+3 from 2012)
MGP          1-4               2 (-1 from 2012)
GVP              0               0 (-2 from 2012)

Goa had a BJP-MGP ruling coalition but then MGP had a falling out with BJP.  It seems the trend here is the national parties (BJP INC AAP) are gaining relative to the Goa regional parties (MGP GVP).

[warandwar]

What's AAP's base in Punjab?

[jaichind]

What's AAP's base in Punjab?

AAP is stronger in Sikh areas and weaker in Hindu areas.  One of the reasons has been the growth of narcotics consumption in Pubjab, especially in Sikh areas and both SAD and to some extent INC are seen as connected to the drug dealing cartels.  So in Sikh areas it is a 3 way battle between SAD INC and AAP while in Hindu areas it is BJP vs INC with AAP running far behind.  Because of the concentration of vote share by AAP, as long as it is a 3 way split in terms of vote shares between SAD+ INC and AAP, I think AAP will outperform in terms of seats relative to its vote share. 

[jaichind]

ECI will make a decision on SP election symbol Friday.   One way or another right after that SP (Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC-RLD-JD(U) will be alliance will most likely be announced.  There are still talks between the Akhilesh Yadav faction and Mulayam Singh Yadav factions.  The Akhilesh Yadav faction position is that Akhilesh Yadav must remain SP Preisdent until after the elections to ensure that SP does well after which Akhilesh Yadav will hand the SP Presidency back to  Mulayam Singh Yadav.    The  Mulayam Singh Yadav  faction insist that  Mulayam Singh Yadav gets back the SP presidency and that Akhilesh Yadav will be allowed to select SP candidates and SP will project Akhilesh Yadav as SP CM candidate.  Right now there is a deadlock I guess a resolution, if any, might take place after ECI makes a call after Friday.

[jaichind]

We also have Goa



Which is an ex-Portugal colony but revented back to India in 1961.

Regardless of what the polls says I feel that INC should have advantage over BJP in Goa.  BJP won in 2012 in Goa based on a grand alliance of BJP, Goa regional party MAG, GVP (NCP splinter) and several pro-BJP independents.  This front defeated the incumbent INC-NCP alliance which suffered from massive rebellion.

2012 Goa Assembly elections
                      
                          Contest           Win             Vote Share
BJP+                        40              28                 48.50%
 BJP                         28              21                 34.68%
 MAG                         6                3                    6.69%
 GVP                          2                2                   2.59%
 Ind.                          4                2                   4.54%

BJP rebel                   3                0                    1.52%
MAG rebel                 1                0                    0.33%

INC+                      40                9                  34.86%
 INC                        33               9                   30.78%
 NCP                         7                0                     7.08%

INC rebel                10                3                     7.55%

AITC                      20                 0                    1.81%

UDGP                      7                 0                    1.17%



For this election BJP and MAG has a falling out with MAG joining forces with RSS (BJP's parent body) rebel created BJP splinter GSM.  SHS will also join this alliance and will split the BJP vote.  GVP has mostly splintered and imploded.  It is unclear if the rump GVP will ally with BJP with time around.  The various pro-BJP independents are also being supported by BJP this time around.   The INC rebels of 2012 has mostly formed GFP and has decided to focus on defeating BJP this election.  This time around INC is working on creating a INC-NCP-GFP alliance.  If so, this election will look more like 2007 when BJP and MAG ran separately:

2007 Goa Assembly elections
                      
                          Contest           Win             Vote Share
BJP+                        40              16                 37.94%
 BJP                          33             14                 30.32%
 SGF                          6                2                   6.29%   (SGF was an INC Christian splinter)
 Ind                           1                0                   1.33%

BJP rebel                                     0                    0.93%
SGF                         11               0                    1.51%  (SGF also ran outside of BJP+ in some areas)

MAG+                      34               3                 13.85%
 MAG                       24                2                   8.50%
 UGDP                       9                1                    4.85%
 Ind                           1               0                    0.50%

INC+                      40               20                 39.03%
 INC                        32              16                  32.25%
 NCP                         6                3                    5.02%
 Ind                          2                1                    1.75%

INC rebel                                    1                    3.37%

JD(S)                    12                  0                   1.25%



So overall the alliance math is working against BJP this time around who is mostly alone.  Only thing
that might help BJP is that AAP has grown in Goa and AAP might end up splitting the INC vote.

This election will be BJP+independents vs INC-NCP-GFP vs MAG-GSM-SHS vs AAP.

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand Post poll has INC slightly ahead





Which has

INC      38.5%        36
BJP       37.1%       29
BSP        7.9%         2
Others                     3

And this does not take into account a possible INC-BSP-UKD alliance.  It does seem that BSP will go it alone but the 2 BSP MLAs might defect to INC in response.

All things equal unless INC can come up with a solid INC-BSP-UKD alliance it is the BJP that should have the upper hand here.

[jaichind]

It is said that once the SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC alliance is formed the star campaigners will be Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav and Priyanka Gandhi (daughter of Sonia Gandhi sister of Rahul Gandhi).  There are already posters going up in anticipation of this

[jaichind]

ECI should make a decision about the SP symbol Sunday.  In the meantime it is said that SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC alliance has mostly been worked out. INC will most likely get around 120 out 403 seats with SP getting 283 with the understanding that INC will work to allocation out of its quota seats to other alliance partners (RLD JD(U) AD(Krishna Patel faction) AITC NCP PECP.)  If so most likely it will be SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) 283 INC 90 RLD 20 PECP 5  AD(Krishna Patel faction) 3 JD(U) 1 NCP 1 which is a pretty good deal for SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) given that the SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav) will not be part of this alliance and speaks to the star power of Akhilesh Yadav.  I guess this alliance breakdown will assume that at least SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) will get the SP symbol.  If it does not then INC will be able to legitimately demand that INC itself should get around 150 seats plus more for other alliance partners since SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) will have to contest on an unknown and untested election symbol.

[jaichind]

ECI gives Akhilesh Yadav faction the SP election symbol and pretty much recognizes SP(Akhilesh Yadav) as the real SP with Akhilesh Yadav as President.



It is likely that the SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav faction) will merge with the defunct LKD (Lok Dal) party that Mulayam Singh Yadav help found in the 1980s before merging it with JNP in the late 1980s and run on the LKD election symbol.  Not clear how many candidates SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and how it will impact SP-INC-RLD alliance.