India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Punjab

It looks at performance of all three fronts INC AAP and SAD-BJP in 2014 LS elections by looking at performance at the assembly segment level.


It points out that in 2014 LS elections AAP gained more from SAD-BJP than INC



It talks about Sikh and Hindu areas



It then talks about INC has a slight advantage among Hindu votes while SAD-BJP has a slight advantage among Sikh voters.



It also talks about how SAD-BJP are stronger in rural areas while INC are stronger in urban areas



It also points out that AAP are stronger in Sikh seats



It then points out that both SAD-BJP and AAP are stronger in Sikh seats and weaker in Hindu seats which means that votes in Sikh seats tend to flow between SAD-BJP and AAP.  If these anti-INC votes are evenly splits then INC gains.  If they go one direction then INC will be in trouble.  So a complete collapse of SAD-BJP will help AAP instead of INC.




It points out that SAD-BJP are stronger with Sikh Dalits while INC are stronger with Hindu Dalits



It ends with saying INC has the upper hand

[jaichind]

Voting over in Goa and Punjab.  Turnout in Goa is 83% which is slightly higher than 2012 Goa.  Turnout in Punjab is 70% lower than the near 79% turnout in Punjab 2012.  Most likely both numbers will be adjusted up.  So Goa will have record turnout while Punjab will see a drop of turnout from 2012.

[jaichind]

After voting ends NDTV updates its odds to favor a AAP victory ruled out SAD-BJP victory

Before voting it was

 

Now it has it as chances of winning

AAP         55%-60%
INC         30%-35%
SAD-BJP   5%-10%

Which would imply reports from the ground show a collapse of SAD-BJP support toward AAP.

If this were to take place then even though SAD-BJP would get wiped out it is good news for Modi. With AAP winning in Punjab it becomes a viable national force and in 2019 there will then be two federal fronts to take on BJP (once centered around INC-SP and the other one centered around AAP.)  AITC will go with INC but BSP and Left Front might go with AAP.  In fact in Bihar JD(U) and RJD might split with RJD going with INC but JD(U) going with AAP.  The anti-BJP vote would get split down the middle giving the BJP a landslide victory.

[jaichind]

Updated turnout has Goa at 83% and Punjab at 79%.  Both at slightly higher than 2012 levels.  Both numbers could still go up.  All things equal these numbers are bad news for SAD-BJP in Punjab and BJP in Goa. 

[jaichind]

The Gujarat and Indore betting rings seems to indicate a SP-INC win in UP and an AAP win in Punjab.  The Indore betting rings has SP-INC at a majority while the Gujarat betting rings has SP-INC barely missing majority.

Of course in 2015 the betting rings had BJP+ winning in Bihar and instead the Grand Alliance of JD(U)-RJD-INC won in a landslide.

[ag]

This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.

[jaichind]

This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.

This is a rule change ECI put in around 8 year ago where all assembly elections held at around the same time are considered on election.  So vote count are delayed until all states are done voting and even exit polls are not allowed to be published until all states are done voting.  The logic is early count results or exit poll results could affect voting in other states.  I do not buy it but several parties in the past claimed they were injured by this dynamic. 

[jaichind]

Chaos in TN politics with a ruling AIADMK civil war breaking out

Ever since TN AIADMK CM Jayalalitha passed away in Dec 2016




Her trusted stand-in Panneerselvam who had no real mass base but seen as blindly loyal to Jayalaitha was put in CM of TN




On the other hand the "Huma Abedin" of Jayalalitha, Sasikala, was installed as the General Secretary of AIADMK as the true power inside the party.



Sasikala had no mass base either and has power over the AIADMK MLAs although is quite unpopular with the AIADMK grass roots.  The AIADMK MLAs feared a split which could only help DMK and rallied around Sasikala.

Now Sasikala was facing corruption charges along with  Jayalalitha whose case was moving through the supreme court.  Once she consolidated power within the party her next step was to install herself as CM of TN which she hoped could alter how her case goes.

A week ago  Panneerselvam resigned as TN CM and the AIADMK MLAs elected Sasikala leader of the AIADMK TN assembly caucus.  She will have 6 months to get elected as a MLA to retain such a role but all decks were cleared for Sasikala to be CM.

Then 4 days ago  Panneerselvam went to Jayalalitha's alter and after meditating for about an hour came out and said that Jayalalitha spirit inspired him to speak the truth which are

a) he was forced to resign as TN CM by Sasikala
b) Jayalalitha died under suspicious circumstances which could involve Sasikala
c) Sasikala is very unpopular with the masses and AIADMK grassroots and does not deserve to be CM
d) He will fight to retain his position as TN CM

Which lead to a AIADMK civil war.  Most MLAs on paper are with  Sasikala and all of them have been bused to a resort hotel so  Panneerselvam's camp cannot poach them.



The TN governor who has to decide who to install as TN CM is really represents BJP's interests.  BJP prefers  Panneerselvam over Sasikala who is know as hostile to BJP.  For now the decision seems to be to wait until the result of Sasikala's corruption case due next week before making a decision what to do.

To keep the MLA flock loyal to Sasikala will require more resources.  As soon as  Panneerselvam revolt started Sasikala removed Panneerselvam as the AIADMK treasurer to get access to AIADMK funds.  Caretaker TN CM Panneerselvam countered with him ordering TN banks that his removal as AIADMK treasurer is illegal and to freeze AIADMK funds.

In the meantime Panneerselvam's camp is accusing the Sasikala's camp of kidnapping of the AIADMK MLAs.

So what was a smooth transition of power in TN has broken out to a AIADMK civil war when the seemly passive Panneerselvam decided to go out of his character and fight for real power within the AIADMK.

[ag]

This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.

This is a rule change ECI put in around 8 year ago where all assembly elections held at around the same time are considered on election.  So vote count are delayed until all states are done voting and even exit polls are not allowed to be published until all states are done voting.  The logic is early count results or exit poll results could affect voting in other states.  I do not buy it but several parties in the past claimed they were injured by this dynamic. 

I know. But doing it this way also affects the results. And voting on different days also affects the results. Everything does.

[jaichind]

First phase of UP elections over. Turnout at 63% as of 5PM which breaks records on several districts

Turnout in key districts are



Overall higher turnout should favor BJP.  News from the ground seems to indicate that BJP retained some of the non-Jatav Dalit votes on key districts which is bad news for BSP and indirectly SP-INC.

[jaichind]

The delay of  Sasikala becoming TN CM due to her corruption court case is working against her as time is not on her side.  More and more MLA and MPs seems to be defecting to Panneerselvam camp.  It is not much and as long as a showdown takes place soon Sasikala should have the upper hand.  But if this drags out a couple of more weeks then Sasikala camp might collapse as the AIADMK grassroots put more pressure on AIADMK MLAs.

[jaichind]

First phase of UP election turnout has been adjusted to 64.22%.  Back in 2012 UP assembly elections the turnout in these districts added up to 59.62%.  The surge in turnout are most likely Jat votes and counter-consolidation in response to the Jat turnout.  BJP had been desperate to recapture the Jat vote.  If they failed in this the this turnout surge, at least the Jat part of it, would work against BJP and in favor of RLD and also a bit for SP-INC.  Of course the counter-consolidation to the Jat turnout are most likely non-Jadav Dailt vote which in theory favor BSP but the word from the ground is that a good part of the non-Jadav Dalit vote, like 2014, went to BJP.

[jaichind]

TN assembly MLA count (latest media estimates)

AIADMK Sasikala                    112
AIADMK Panneerselvam           10
AIADMK unclear                       14
DMK                                        89
INC                                           8
MUL                                          1

In a showdown between  Sasikala  and Panneerselvam, DMK, hoping to benefit from a prolonged AIADMK civil war, will most likely  Panneerselvam along with MUL.  INC is in a tough spot and split on this issue.  INC knows that BJP is hostile to Sasikala so using the enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend logic INC should back Sasikala.  But that risks a break with INC ally DMK.  Most likely INC will just stay neutral. 

Sasikala must somehow maneuver the the de facto BJP TN governor to push for a showdown soon because as soon as AIADMK Panneerselvam-DMK exceeds AIADMK Sasikala in terms of MLAs then the entire AIADMK Sasikala  bloc will dissolve. 

[jaichind]

Sasikala camp releases this picture to show that the pro-Sasikala AIADMK MLAs living in resorts are solidly behind Sasikala (show in the middle of the picture) in a metting earlier today.

[jaichind]

India Today on the ground report from the first phase of UP indicates the following trends

1) Higher turnout mostly driven by the Muslim vote which seems to be leaning SP-INC which is bad news for both BSP and BJP.  If the BSP can win the Muslim vote it should be in the districts in the first phase where BSP has some strength and SP-INC tend to weaker so one could expect the Muslim vote to go BSP. 

2) Jats turnout was also high and seems to have turned against BJP relative to 2014 mostly to the benefit of RLD.  It seems the BJP mission to recapture the Jat vote has failed.

3) The main hope for the BJP seems to be that the non-Jatav Dalit vote did split between BJP and BSP versus coming home to BSP.  This seems to be driven by still positive views of Dailts of Modi.

All things equal if Muslim turnout has increase and consolidated behind SP-INC and if we expect this trend to continue in the rest of the election then BSP is pretty much out of the running and the BJP has to hope for Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC counter consolidation behind BJP.  This does not seem likely as SP-INC did not really campaign on the Muslim vote.  If anything the BSP has been more explicit about  about trying to rope in the Muslim vote.  Communal polarization tends to be based on jujitsu principles where it is second mover advantage.  There is usually an explicit attempt to polarize a community behind a party which usually does not succeed but the reaction consolidation in response tends to be the driving factor that is successful. 

[jaichind]

The pro-Modi Hindi Daily Dainik Jagran published an exit poll, illegally, of the first phase of the UP.  It took  the results down from its website but that will not save it from being punished by the ECI.  The exit poll had BJP clearly ahead with BSP second with SP-INC a poor third which seems to contradict most media on the ground reports.   It seems that this exit poll was meant to influence the voting in Eastern and Central UP where Dainik Jagran readership is very high.  If these results were true, which it very well could be, then it would mean that the Muslim vote was split between BSP and SP-INC while the Jat and non-Jatav Dalit vote consolidated behind BJP which again seems contrary to several other media reports on the ground in Western UP.

This exit poll also seems coordinated with the new BJP line that in the first and second phase of UP elections it will be BJP vs BSP while rest of the phases it will be BJP vs SP.  While it is true that the first phase is SP's weakest phase, the second phase districts historically has been reasonably strong for SP.  So the BJP line seems to imply that there has been Muslim consolidation behind SP-INC so there is a need to play down SP-INC strength so the Muslim vote could be split toward BSP in the second phase.  This exit poll does seem to consistent with that line weather it is accurate or not. 

[jaichind]

In TN Sasikala found guilty of corruption by the supreme court and will be going to jail.  She handpicked Palaniswami  to be the leader of the AIADMK legislative party and expelled TN caretaker CM Panneerselvam from AIADMK.  There does not seem to be a flood of pro-Sasikala MLAs flooding to join the Panneerselvam camp.  This could change once Sasikala is taken into custody.  AIADMK is headed for a vertical split and there could be mid-term elections in TN.   

[jaichind]

Next phase of UP elections voting tomorrow along with Uttarakhand.

Funny stories from this phase are

1) In Nakur of UP, the RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap decided to defect to BJP two days before voting claiming that he has been insulted by the leadership of the BJP.  It is too late to remove his name from the ballot so he has been campaigning against himself calling for his supporters to vote BJP.  At the same time RLD has come out calling Ramkumar Kashyap a traitor but still calling for voters to vote RLD which on paper the candidate is Ramkumar Kashyap himself.  So Ramkumar Kashyap campaign pitch is "vote against Ramkumar Kashyap" while RLD's campaign pitch is "punish the traitor Ramkumar Kashyap by voting for RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap".   In 2012 Nakur was a BSP vs INC(backed by RLD) battle with SP and BJP far behind while in 2014 Nakur was 3 way battle between BJP SP BSP with RLD far behind when the Jat vote went BJP. 

2) In Uttarakhand, it as rebels galore as out of 70 seats 13 BJP candidates are INC MLAs and 7 INC candidates are BJP MLAs.  In a couple of districts the BJP and INC candidates are repeating the 2012 faceoff but with party labels reversed.

[jaichind]

Voting over. UP phase 2 turnout around 66% which is a slight increase from 2012's turnout of 65.1%.  This number will most likely increase.

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand turnout around 68% which most likely will increase.  In 2012 turnout was 66.6%.

[jaichind]

In TN, Sasilkala is in jail but still remains the General Secretary of AIADMK.  Right before going to jail she appointed inducted her her nephew Dinakaran into AIADMK (he was expelled by jayalalitha back in 2011 and made Sasilkala produce a written promise to break off all contacts with him and the rest of her family) and then made Dinakaran the Vice General Secretary of AIADMK. 

WIth this Sasilkala's domination of AIADMK is complete so she has a proxy General Secretary running the party and a proxy CM Palaniswami being installed.  It seems the vast majority of the Sasilkala faction AIADMK are sticking with her and as such Palaniswami is being installed as CM of TN.  Last chance to stop Sasilkala remote control of TN in jail is a confidence vote in the TN assembly coming up soon.  The Panneerselvam faction seems so far only to have around 10 MLAs which would not be enough to stop the Sasilkala faction.  Not clear why the vast majority of the AIADMK MLAs are sticking by a Sasilkala who is in jail but unless there are significant defections in the trust vote Sasilkala will dominate TN politics from jail for a while.

If so then in restrospect the Panneerselvam rebellion was a huge mistake.  Had Panneerselvam stayed silent last week as Sasilkala was going to be installed as CM she would have been found guilty of corruption by the Supreme Court a couple of days later, then be stripped of her title of TN CM and then Panneerselvam would have been reinstalled as TN CM as a proxy CM for Sasilkala after which he would be able to work to break free of Sasilkala's control over time.  Instead now Palaniswami will be that proxy CM.

[jaichind]

In TN Sasilkala proxy CM Palaniswami wins trust vote 122-11.  



DMK INC and MUL MLAs walked out of the assembly chamber protesting how Palaniswami was installed.  The AIADMK speaker rejected a secret ballot proposal from DMK.  In the end the Panneerselvam rebel AIADMK faction could only muster 11 MLAs.   All of them will be expelled as MLAs for going against the AIADMK party whip.

Scene at TN assembly after DMK-INC protests tried to stall the vote and then later walked out of the assembly.



Again not clear why the vast majority of AIADMK would go along with an assistant of Jayalalitha as their leader and when Sasilkala was put in jail still stick together to back Sasilkala's proxy.  Part of it is the AIADMK cultural of treating their leadership as deity.  

How some AIADMK MLAs greet Jayalalitha.


Of course another reason is the fact that DMK-INC has significant base in TN and if AIADMK splinters that would only mean all of them will end up in the wilderness.

DMK leader Stalin is going on a fast to protest the lack of a secret ballot.

[jaichind]

Third Phase UP elections done.

Turnout was 61.16% while the 2014 LS turnout in these districts were  58.43% and in 2012 assembly elections were 59.96%.  It seems the districts with the largest increase in turnout are the Yadav strongholds. 



This phase contains a lot of SP strongholds and is the strongest phase for SP.  Main issue for SP are what impact the SP rebels that are aligned with the Shivpal Yadav faction have on the SP candidates.  If that could be kept to the minimum then SP-INC should end up winning most of the seats in this phase.

[jaichind]

SP dodged a bullet.  One of the candidates on  Shivpal Yadav's list of candidates that Akilish Yadav ended up rejecting was Aman Mani Tripathi for Nautanwa who was the SP candidate there in 2012 as well. Aman Mani Tripathi ended  running as an independent as a SP rebel.   

Aman Mani Tripathi with wife


Back in late 2016 Aman Mani Tripathi's wife was killed in a car accident.  Just today Aman Mani Tripathi was charged with murder of his wife and faking the car accident. 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra, there will be civic elections on tuesday including the massive and critical BMC ( Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) of Mumbai.  BJP-SHS alliance has ruled here since 1997.  BJP and SHS relationship has been strained since 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections when BJP and SHS contested separately but cobbled up a government led by the BJP.  Sensing that BJP is at risk of permanently overtaking SHS in Maharashtra, SHS broke off the alliance with the BJP for the BMC elections turning the election into a 3 way battle (BJP vs SHS vs INC) as NCP is very weak in Mumbai.

It seems very likely that if SHS does very well or very poorly in the BMC election that SHS will break off the alliance with the BJP both at the Maharashtra and at the center as well.

Right now the Maharashtra assembly seat breakdown are

BJP+        124 (RSPS allied with BJP)
SHS           63
MNS            1 (SHS splinter)
SHS rebel    2
INC           42
INC rebel     3
NCP+        45 (BVA allied with NCP)
NCP rebel    1
PWPI          3
AIMIM        2
BBM           1
CPM           1

If SHS pulls out of the alliance with the BJP there was talk that NCP might back a BJP government like it offered to after the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections.  NCP has already produced a written document to the   Maharashtra governor that it will not back BJP no matter what.  If so SHS pulls out of the alliance then Maharashtra will be headed toward mid-term elections.