India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

Kerela assembly seat Vengara by election result out

In 2016 it was

UDF   60.0%
LDF   28.4%
BJP     5.9%
SDPI   2.5%

Now it is

UDF   53.7%
LDF   34.5%
SDPI   7.1%
BJP     4.7%

BJP invested a lot into this by-election and the result was a slight swing away from BJP in a high turnout by-election.  A swing from UDF to LDF is par for the course.  SDPI did make significant gains that one thought would have been for the BJP.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, it seems that the JD(U) which is aligned with the pro-UPA Sharad Yadav and not with pro-NDA Nitish Kumar is moving toward an alliance with INC.  JD(U) in Gujarat has some strength in tribal areas.  At the same time Patel leader Hardik Patel, Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor are all in talks with INC to form an alliance. 

 

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis My India poll

Gujarat
                       Seat    Vote share
BJP                   120        48%
INC                    61         38%
Hardick Party        0          2%
Others                  1        12%

Patel vote which historically has gone BJP it is
BJP                 38%
INC                 40%
Hardick Party   10%  (Anti-BJP Patel rebel movement)
Others            12%

But BJP makes gains with OBC vote
BJP     52%
INC     34%
Others 14%

Muslim vote still with INC
BJP               11%
INC               74%
Hardick Party   2%
Others           13%

I suspect BJP will do worse than this.  Especially if Hardick Patel allies with INC.



HP
                       Seat    Vote share
BJP                    44         49%
INC                    23         38%
Others                 1          13%

I suspect BJP will do better than this.

[jaichind]

Latest CSDS-ABP poll has INC catching up quickly in Gujarat just I thought would take place



It has
               
                Vote share    seats
BJP              47%          117
INC              41%           62
Others         12%             4

Of course this puts INC back where it was in 2012 although it seems have gotten over the by BJP 2014 LS landslide and gotten partisan aligns roughly to pre-2014 patterns. 

Of course if polls show INC this close pre-election then the actual results might be even closer.

[jaichind]

HP voted yesterday.  Result to be sealed until Gujarat also votes.

Turnout was a record at 74.61%



Most likely a bad sign the the ruling INC and given the turnout surge INC most likely got beaten by a BJP landslide.

[jaichind]

MP by-election in Chitrakoot results in INC retaining its seat

In 2013 it was
INC   37.2
BJP   28.3
BSP   19.7

Now it is (with BSP not contesting)
INC   54.0
BJP    42.6

In theory by-elections should create swings toward the ruling party, in this case, the BJP.  Overall it seems the INC gained slightly although one can argue that most of the BSP vote should have go toward INC and relative to that BJP did gain somewhat.  One way or another this seems to indicate INC gains in 2018 MP assembly elections.

[jaichind]

Looks like in the end NCP will join INC in an alliance but it its not clear that INC will take them or given INC a set of seats that NCP will accept.   The anti-Nitish Kumar Gujarat JD(U) which has some strength in tribal areas are also in talks with INC for an alliance have also bogged down due to disagreement on number of seats.  I suspect in the end a INC-JD(U)-NCP alliance will be worked out or they will hang seperately. 

[jaichind]

It does not seem that ex-INC (also also ex-BJP) leader and former CM Vaghela's JVM (not to be confused with Jharkhand regional BJP splinter JVM) is really going anywhere.   Vaghela has been reduced to going on facebook to try to recruit candidates.  Overall most anti-BJP forces (JD(U), NCP, Patel leader Hardik Patel, Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor) seems to be forming explicit or implicit alliances with INC which further marginalizes JVM.  Most likely JVM will end up in the low to mid single digits in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

"Rahul Gandhi to be coronated on December 19 with a possible massive revival in the Congress party," a Times Now report claimed

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So in the next federal election, will there be two JD(U) parties: one based in Bihar backing the NDA and one elsewhere backinh UPA?

[jaichind]

So in the next federal election, will there be two JD(U) parties: one based in Bihar backing the NDA and one elsewhere backinh UPA?

Correct.  The ECI has already ruled that the Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) will get the JD(U) symbol so the Sharad Yadav branch of JD(U) will need to get a new election symbol.

In Gujarat the JD(U) is lead by trival leader Chhotubhai Vasava who backs Sharad Yadav so most of the JD(U) in Gujarat will be allied with INC but the  Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) will get the JD(U) symbol.  What the  Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) (which is pretty much a non-entity) is doing this election is pretty sneaky.  The decided to nominate a candidate also called Chhotubhai Vasava on the JD(U) symbol to split the Chhotubhai Vasava vote.  Chhotubhai Vasava ran in 2012 on the JD(U) symbol but now the Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) candidate with the same name and with the JD(U) symbol will be running making it hard for JD(U) supporter from figuring out which Chhotubhai Vasava to vote for.

[jaichind]

BJP did very well in the UP civic elections which bodes well for Gujarat later this month.  To be fair in 2012 when BJP did poorly in assembly elections the BJP also did well in UP civic elections.  This time BJP made gains on top of its pretty good performance in 2012.

[jaichind]

Lokniti-CSDS poll for Gujarat now has BJP and INC neck-to-neck

         Vote share   Seats
BJP         43%       95
INC         43%       82
Others                    5

[jaichind]

Times Now-VMR poll still has BJP with a solid lead in Gujart

BJP         111
INC          68
others        3

[jaichind]

CSDS poll and other voting history shows that BJP strong in cities and INC stronger in rural areas.  CSDS poll surge for INC mostly in rural areas.

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls

[jaichind]

Voting begins in Gujarat for phase 1

[Sestak]

Question:

Does INC's chances of ditching Rahul go up or down if they win??

Likewise if they lose...

Because honestly, dumping him is probably the only way to stop the Modi regime in 2019.

[jaichind]

In Bihar where JD(U) joined up with BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM now there is talk that RJD-INC will try to rope in CPI-CPM-CPI(ML) as well as RLSP and HAM.  RLSP and HAM lost influence in the NDA in Bihar with JD(U) now being in NDA.

Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM was always close to Lalu Yadav and was in RJD in 1998-2005 period and of course he broke with Nitish Kumar back in 2015 when Nitish Kumar gabbed back the CM role.  Back in 2015 there were talk of HAM forming an alliance with RJD instead of BJP of RJD-JD(U) talks fell through.   Upendra Kushwaha's  RLSP is a JD(U) splinter and clearly Nitish Kumar does not view his former lieutenant  Upendra Kushwaha and turn rebel in a positive light.  So it would not be a large surprise if RLSP and HAM defect from NDA to join RJD.

Back in the 2015 Bihar elections I wrote a history of different political players and their alignment

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

For 2019 LS election I guess now we can add

2019 LS (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + INC)

But if the RJD gambit works it might turn into
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + INC)

[jaichind]

Question:

Does INC's chances of ditching Rahul go up or down if they win??

Likewise if they lose...

Because honestly, dumping him is probably the only way to stop the Modi regime in 2019.

INC will never ditch Rahul Gandhi win or lose.  There are too many INC factions which are at each other throat so the only way for INC not to fall apart is to make sure that a Gandhi is at the helm. To be fair the Gujarat election campaign Rahul Gandhi seems to be actually a net asset for INC all things equal. 

There is no way Modi's NDA will lose in 2019.  Rahul Gandhi is playing for 2024.  He will let BJP crush various regional satraps for him and as long as he can keep INC in one piece when anti-incumbency builds up against BJP by 2024 Rahul Gandhi and his INC will be the only alternative to the BJP.  All things equal as long as Rahul Gandhi can keep INC together and stay being President of INC by 2024 he has a solid change of being PM.

[jaichind]

INC names Rahul Gandhi president

[jaichind]

A critical factor in how well INC does in Gujarat is the level of Patel defection from BJP to INC.  In the end INC worked out a tactical alliance with Patel youth leader Hardick Patel who ended up backing INC after failing to get INC to commit to his demand that Patels will be part of the OBC quota.  This means the level of support Hardick Patel's movement for INC will be lukewarm.  Of course INC had no choice in this since caste quota politics is zero sum.  If INC came out for Patels being labeled as OBC then they will eat in the current OBC quota and the OBC vote will move en masse to BJP.  INC played it as well as it could which is to get  Hardick Patel backing without offending OBCs.

Right now it seems INC has played all the right cards: it got NCP support, rebel JD(U) support, OBC, Dailt and Patel youth movement support.   What BJP has is Modi which is still very popular in Gujarat.  In the end BJP will still win but with a reduced majority.  We will see what the exit polls say.

[jaichind]

Voting for second phase of Gujarat in progress.  There will be exit polls for both Gujarat and HP after voting ends.

[jaichind]

A couple of days ago Modi accused former INC PM Manmohan Singh of colluding with Pakistan including a recent secret meeting with Pakistani operatives to "install a Muslim CM for Gujarat in preparation for a Pakistan takeover of Gujarat."  It seems the BJP internal polling must be showing tight race or even BJP behind for Modi to go on this sort of attack.  Of course Modi and Singh meet today at Parliament to commemorate the 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament which must have been awkward for both

[jaichind]

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls