India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

India stock market down 1.4%

[jaichind]

Counting begins - real results now

BJP back to a slight lead

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      91        -18            -68
INC+   84       +23           +67
Others   1         -5              +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (85 vs 94))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      26       +10           -15
INC      19        -8            +12
Others   3         -2             +3    
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (38 vs 23))

[jaichind]

Counting begins - real results now

Local count in Gujarat actually show a INC lead !!!

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      91        -19            -69
INC+   85       +24           +68
Others   1         -5              +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (82 vs 97))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      33       +15           -15
INC      19       -12          +12
Others   3         -3            +3   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 25))

[jaichind]

ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP   48.2%
INC  43.5%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  48.5%
INC  44.8%

which also implies a BJP victory but not a massive one

[jaichind]

Counting begins - real results now

BJP now slight lead from multiple sources

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      99        -15            -65
INC+   82       +21           +65
Others   0         -6             --

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (97 vs 81))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      40       +16           -16
INC      21       -14           +12
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (41 vs 25))

[jaichind]

ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     47.9%
INC+  45.1%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  49.6%
INC  43.5%

which also implies a BJP victory but not a massive one

[jaichind]

Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    105        -10            -59
INC+   76       +15           +58
Others   1         -5             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (98 vs 80))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      39       +13           -20
INC      25       -11           +16
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))

[jaichind]

ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     48.2%
INC+  44.2%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  49.4%
INC  42.8%

which also implies a significant BJP victory

[jaichind]

Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    108          -7            -57
INC+   73       +12           +56
Others   1         -5             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      42       +16           -17
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))

[jaichind]

Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    105        -10            -60
INC+   74       +13           +57
Others   3         -3             +3

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (104 vs 75))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      39       +16           -20
INC      23       -14           +14
Others   6        --              +6   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))

[jaichind]

Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    103        -12            -62
INC+   76       +15           +59
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 BSP, 1 INC rebel, 1 pro-AAP ind)

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (103 vs 75))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      41       +15           -18
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   5         -1             +5  (1 CPM, 2 INC rebel)
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))

[jaichind]

ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     48.9%
INC+  43.0%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end with a victory greater than 100 seats

HP
BJP  49.8%
INC  42.7%

which also implies a significant  BJP victory but not a massive one

[jaichind]

Leads

Informal sources now match formal sources.  BJP wins Gujarat with a narrower margin and wins HP but does not land a landslide blowout on INC.

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    103        -12            -62
INC+   78       +17           +61
Others   1         -1             +1 (INC rebel)

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (103 vs 76))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      41       +15           -18
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   5         -1             +5  (1 CPM, 2 INC rebel)
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (41 vs 22))

[jaichind]

Leads and won

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share
BJP      98        -17            -68                               49.1%
INC+   81       +20           +65                               42.4%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.3%
INC      20       -16           +11                                42.0%
Others   4         -2             +4  (1 CPM, 2 BJP rebel)
 

[jaichind]

Leads and won

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs

INC outperforming in terms of seats relative to vote share.  INC vote share holding up in HP.  BJP winning mostly be consolidating anti-INC vote.  In Gujarat a similar story as BJP vote share actually went up relative to 2012 (of course in 2012 BJP splinter GPP got 3.6% of the vote.)  INC doing better in Gujarat mostly by consolidating the anti-BJP vote.

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.4%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.6%                   38.5%
INC      21       -16           +11                                41.9%                   42.8%
Others   3         -2             +4  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)

[jaichind]

Indian markets which was down 1.4% when it seems BJP might lose Gujart is now up 0.4% with a BJP win (although narrow win.)

[jaichind]

All the INC gains in Gujarat seems to from Saurashtra where rural Patels dominate.  So there was a rural Patel swing toward INC.  In the rest of Gujarat it seems the Patel swing toward INC was negated by a counter-swing of OBC and to some extent Dalits toward BJP.

[jaichind]

Leads and won

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs

Gujarat almost done.  HP still have a bunch more to go.
 
Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.5%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.7%                   38.5%
INC      21       -15           +13                                41.8%                   42.8%
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)

[jaichind]

Now that INC has lost HP, INC is now down to Karnataka, Punjab, Puducherry, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Only the first two are significant states.  And INC could end up losing Karnataka in next year's election. 

[jaichind]

Count done in Gujarat and almost done in HP

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs
 
Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.5%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
INC+ is (77 INC, 2 BTP (pro-INC JD(U) splinter, 1 pro-INC independent)

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.8%                   38.5%
INC      21       -15           +13                                41.8%                   42.8%
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)

[jaichind]

BJP falls below the physiological barrier of 100 seats in Gujarat.   In many ways this election will be seen as a minor defeat of BJP and a moral victory for INC.  Rahul Gandhi gets a B- in his first test as INC Prez.  He got a respectable result and lives to fight another day.

[jaichind]

If you filter out NULLs then the vote share are

Gujarat     2017        2014           2012
BJP          50.0%       60.1%        47.9%
INC+       43.3%       34.4%         39.7%

INC captures a bunch of anti-BJP votes while BJP reabsorbs BJP 2012 splinter GPP vote share of 3.6%.  It seems BJP-INC margin holds up in most places but BJP loses a lot of votes in  Saurashtra leading to INC getting a bunch of seats even as INC vote share did not rise that much.


HP           2017        2014           2012
BJP          49.0%       53.9%        38.5%
INC         42.2%       41.1%        42.8%

INC is pretty constant.  BJP's scale of victory is how much of the anti-INC vote it can win over.  2017 BJP vote share also reabsorbs BJP 2012 splinter HLP vote share of 1.9%.

[jaichind]

The HP 2017 assembly election result looks a lot like the 2007 assembly election result in terms of seats

2007  Seats   Vote share
BJP      41         43.8%
INC      23         38.9%
Ind.       3
BSP       1           7.3%
CPM      0            0.6%

2017  Seats   Vote share
BJP      44         49.0%
INC      21         42.2%
Ind.       2
CPM      1            1.4%
BSP       0           0.5%

BSP lost its vote base to INC and BJP equally from 2007 to 2017.

[jaichind]

Saurashtra has a lot of framers and Patels.  Both demographics swung toward INC.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think these results are great


BJP still wins but with a reduced majority which should send a message to Modi that he needs to start to deliver more on his promises instead of just being a non congress pm.