India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

In the end the RK Nagar by-election was an issue-less campaign at the grassroots.  Most interviews of voters were all about "why is it that X got $N for his/her vote but I got nothing?"  The general view of the grassroots voter is that since the government steals money from the exchequer then it is fine for the voters to take money since it is merely getting their money back.

[jaichind]

Tamil film superstar Rajinikanth



Announced today that he will form a political party in TN and will contest all seats in the 2021 TN assembly elections.  Not clear if his new party will contest 2019 LS elections.  Not clear what impact this will have.  All things equal this will most likely benefit the divided AIADMK than the DMK.  I think on the long run his new party will end up the same as TN film superstar Vijayakanth's DMDK party once its novelty factor wears off.  But it might be a disruptive force in TN for an election cycle or two.

[jaichind]

2017 Gujarat assembly results

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182               80              43.27%    (BTP which is JD(U) splinter part of INC+)

INC rebel                         2                0.75%
NCP            58                 1                0.63%
AIHCP         95                 0                0.28%    (INC rebel Vaghela outfit)

BJP           182               99              49.97%

BJP rebel                        0                  1.07%
 
BSP          139                0                  0.70%

Back in 2012 BJP+GPP+BJP rebels got 52.67% of the vote.  Now it went down to 51.04%.  Back in 2012 INC+allies+NCP+INC rebels got 40.71% of the vote (41.38% if we add in 2012 JD(U) vote on the theory that most of the 2012 JD(U) vote went to BTP which then joined up with INC+ in 2017.)  Now it went up to 44.93%.  The INC comeback in Gujarat is more about INC consolidating the anti-BJP vote.  Also note that there is a limit to this since even if NCP joined the INC+ front it would have only taken away one more seat from BJP.   It seems even without Modi as CM the BJP has the electoral strength to win a small majority in Gujarat.

Vaghela's JVM which allied with the INC Rajasthan splinter AIHCP and ran on the AIHCP symbol went nowhere in a very polarized election.    It seems that Vaghela has nowhere to go other than retirement or crawling back to BJP who will most likely take him in for old times sake (he was the political mentor of Modi after all.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are all Tamil politicians celebrities?

[jaichind]

Are all Tamil politicians celebrities?

Yes.  Mainly in cinema. 
DMK founder C. N. Annadurai was a film script writer
DMK leader M. Karunanidhi was also in screenwriting
AIADMK founder MGR was an actor
AIADMK ex-leader Jayalalitha was an actress
DMDK founder Vijayakanth is a actor

[jaichind]

I will start a India 2018 assembly elections thread soon now we are in 2018.

2018 assembly elections are

Meghalaya (Feb 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA (BJP plus NDA parties like pro-BJP NCP splinter
                                    NPP).  BJP-NPP will pose a real challenge to INC

Tripura (March 2018) - Left Front incumbent vs INC vs NDA (Left front has Bengali vote, Tribal vote
                                   unclear, as it could go INC or BJP+various tribal allies).  Left front will win
                                    with the tribal vote split between INC and BJP+

Nagaland (March 2018) - NPF incumbent (BJP ally) vs INC.  NPF+BJP most likely too strong for INC
                                     to overcome.

Karnataka (May 2018) - INC incumbent vs BJP vs JD(S).  Not clear if JD(S) will form tactical alliance
                                      with BJP or INC or truly go it alone.  INC would be lucky to emerge as the
                                       largest party

Mizoram (Dec 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA(BJP plus MNF and ZNP).  BJP+MNF+ZNP could pose a
                                    real challenge to INC which had been dominate in this state

Chhattisgarh(Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Chhattisgarh is INC's PA.  Close but no cigar in
                                      2003 2008 and 2013 with narrow losses to BJP.  This time INC should win
                                      but INC rebel Ajit Jogi JC will make it a 3 way fight could throw the
                                      election to BJP

Madhya Pradesh (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Second most pro-BJP state after Gujarat.   
                                            INC will make gains like 2017 Gujarat but most likely will not win.           

Rajasthan (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Rajasthan has been very elastic historically and
                                   even though INC was crushed in 2013 there is a better than even odds INC
                                     comes back to power in a narrow win over BJP