NH-GBA Strategies: Hassan +3
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  NH-GBA Strategies: Hassan +3
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Author Topic: NH-GBA Strategies: Hassan +3  (Read 699 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 29, 2016, 03:06:19 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2016, 03:08:57 PM by heatcharger »

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ECU-NH-Memo-Sep29.pdf

Hassan - 47%
Ayotte - 44%
Chabot (L) - 7%

This survey was conducted on behalf of End Citizens United, and was weirdly conducted from 9/25-27, right before and after the debate.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with a R+0.2 house effect.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 03:07:15 PM »

Safe D, nothing to see here. Republicans should focus on races that are actually competitive.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 03:11:30 PM »

SafeTilt D, nothingplenty to see here. Republicans should focus on races that are actually competitive, e.g. this one, unless they want to lose the Senate and give up on a winnable Gubernatorial race.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 03:24:27 PM »

The Libertarian presence means Ayotte doesn't need to reach 50% to win, 47-48% should do it. Very doable.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 03:26:08 PM »

Okay, for those who believe New Hampshire is still competitive: Explain how Republicans can win here when both districts are trending Democratic (01 because of the influx Mass. liberals, 02 because of Vermontification).
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 03:32:09 PM »

SafeTilt D, nothingplenty to see here. Republicans should focus on races that are actually competitive, e.g. this one, unless they want to lose the Senate and give up on a winnable Gubernatorial race.

Of course Democrats like YOU want the GOP to waste money in NH. Tongue IN, PA, NV, MO, NC and LA are the races to watch.

LA is not competitive unless Kennedy fails to make the run-off. Even then, I expect whichever Republican that does to win. If Republicans concede this race, that's three seats that are gone for them, which would give them very little leeway, considering that Toomey and Young are behind, NV's going to be NV, and Burr is only slightly ahead in NC. If they give up here, the Democrats are the clear favorites to win the Senate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2016, 03:32:58 PM »

Go-go Speedracer Climbing Maggie!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2016, 03:40:20 PM »

@Heisenberg: My definition of Safe D/Safe R is that a party can win in a landslide without campaigning. Hassan is campaigning heavily and is, at best, slightly ahead. NH is clearly more on par with NV or NM, which I consider to be in-between safe states and swing states, than it is with OH or FL, but it is not on par with CT or DE or VT.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2016, 03:36:14 PM »

Go Maggie, keep climbin'! Smiley
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