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Author Topic: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4  (Read 2429 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 30, 2016, 06:01:40 am »

Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

Source
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 06:04:36 am »

Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001
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mark_twain
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2016, 06:11:42 am »

Good result for Clinton.

Compared to the result of AUG 22-24, it is an improvement of +2.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2016, 06:13:06 am »

Before our resident unskewer asks, this poll is 41% Dem 39% Rep.
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matthew27
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2016, 06:13:46 am »

This is great news!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2016, 06:25:22 am »

Splendid poll. Hillary is spanking Trump harder than a teenager spanks his monkey during a YouPorn watching session.
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 06:52:04 am »

Ouch Sad
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Snek!
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 07:08:42 am »

Needless to say, Emperor Pepetine is displeased.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2016, 07:15:43 am by Spicy Purrito »Logged
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2016, 07:08:51 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2016, 07:13:14 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2016, 07:17:34 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
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afleitch
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2016, 07:19:54 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.

!
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2016, 07:24:30 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.

!

I'm fine with it if that's what MD wants to use, I just prefer stricter LV screens. It stands to reason that if you call 800+ people, chances are that not every one is going to vote.

But admittedly, I missed that sentence in the article. It's probably a similar LV screen to what some other pollsters use (in fact, PPP used the same screen in 2008, I believe, when they got stellar results). In a super high turnout situation it works well.
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chrisras
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2016, 07:42:53 am »

+2 post debate bounce.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2016, 08:14:38 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.

"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2016, 08:24:46 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.

"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.

Fair point. I concede.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2016, 08:36:45 am »

+2 post debate bounce.

Even better...the +2 is relative to mid-Aug numbers, when Clinton had the upper hand in FL.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2016, 08:42:53 am »

It looks like Trump is in rough shape after blowing that debate.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2016, 08:49:16 am »

Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?

...no?

"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."

A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.

"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.

Fair point. I concede.

Seeing someone admit a mistake is pretty rare on here, so kudos. Smiley
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2016, 09:37:20 am »

SWEET JUMPIN' JACKRABBITS!!!

Trumpster can't lose that Florida. 



That is a loss, ladies and germs.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2016, 09:38:52 am »

I hope this holds. I'll take 270 EV but I want 300+.
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Mallow
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2016, 09:58:25 am »

Before our resident unskewer asks, this poll is 41% Dem 39% Rep.

Don't worry, he only shows up IF he can "unskew" (or otherwise spin it for Trump).
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2016, 10:03:19 am »

if hillary gets FL she is going to get some other states too....so 300+ would be a done thing.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2016, 10:48:02 am »

Looks like those Angry FL Women are taking a dump on Trump! If only the state could collectively grow a brain and dump the Senator who approves of Trump, as well.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2016, 11:59:00 am »

Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?

Regardless, glorious news!!!
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