Fox - National: Clinton +3

[Ronnie]

Just appeared on Charles Payne's show:

Conducted Sept. 27-29, MoE +/3 (Likely voters)

Clinton 43%
Trump 40%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%

Who won the debate? (Registered voter debate watchers)
Clinton 61%
Trump 21%
Tie 12%

[Wells]

Who won the debate?
Clinton 61%
Trump 21%
Tie 12%

That's ridiculous. The ONLINE POLLS showed that the clear victor was the Trumpster.

[Ebsy]

+5 in the head to head! Wow!

[Fusionmunster]

Its certainly an improvement.

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL! Huge swing to Clinton.

[dspNY]

6 point swing in the more accurate head to head from Trump +1 to Clinton +5

[heatcharger]

If I had to guess, Johnson and Stein won't combine for more than 10% on Election Day. Good news for Hillary.

[NOVA Green]

Don't they also have a R 1-2+ "House Effect" as well?

It looks like not only is Da Bounce real, but also that state and national polling is starting to converge...

[Lief 🗽]

If I had to guess, Johnson and Stein won't combine for more than 10 3% on Election Day. Good news for Hillary.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WOWZIE!!!   Trump's dropping faster than my pants in Scarlett Johansson's bedroom!

[HillOfANight]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/30/fox-news-poll-clinton-ahead-trump-after-debate-fear-motivating-both-sides.html She beats him in the honesty question.

[ProudModerate2]

6 point swing in the more accurate head to head from Trump +1 to Clinton +5

Very nice.

[Ebsy]

Clinton received a massive surge in the temperament question.

[Alcon]

Good poll for Clinton, but man, dat education gap.  Clinton third place with non-college white males:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Good poll for Clinton, but man, dat education gap.  Clinton third place with non-college white males:

A lot of that is probably because Johnson probably has a lot of support of white men in college, who don't count as having a degree yet.  But, the more noteworthy gap has to be between men and women among whites with a degree!

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 83%
Stein 6%
Johnson 5%
Trump 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Clinton 7%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 29%
Johnson 21%
Stein 3%

Gender gap in the 4-way is 37 points(!) as Clinton is +20 with women and Trump is +17 with men.

non-whites
Clinton 78%
Trump 12%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

whites w/ college degree
Trump 44%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

whites w/ no college degree
Trump 57%
Clinton 22%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

urban: Clinton +37
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +29
under age 35: Clinton +16
age 35-54: Trump +10
age 55+: Clinton +6

[heatcharger]

To add on:

White men:

Clinton 19%
Trump 59%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

White women:

Clinton 40%
Trump 44%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

I really wish they did a married/single crosstab lol. Looks like the silent majority, women, will push Hillary over the top. Beautiful.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

Uneducated white men hate everyone.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

The answer lies within your question, young Padawan.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

Uneducated white men hate everyone.

Not Trump, lol.

[PresidentSamTilden]

urban: Clinton +37
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +29

That can't be right, unless they're using an odd definition of rural. So Clinton is leading in urban areas by 37 (alright), in suburban areas by 9 (i'm skeptical, but we can go with it), and leads by 3 nationally? In a mostly urban country?

Maybe the MoE on that stuff is super high or something?

[rob in cal]

  Do we have the non-white educated vs non-educated vote breakdown.  Guessing that Hillary is doing very, very well with the non-white non-educated.

[Mr. Morden]

urban: Clinton +37
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +29

That can't be right, unless they're using an odd definition of rural. So Clinton is leading in urban areas by 37 (alright), in suburban areas by 9 (i'm skeptical, but we can go with it), and leads by 3 nationally? In a mostly urban country?

Maybe the MoE on that stuff is super high or something?

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

[PresidentSamTilden]

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

Well, regardless of sample size though, wouldn't these stats imply a Clinton lead of 50 points nationally? (why aren't I up 50?!? jk)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

It just doesn't seem to add up to me, but there has to be some explanation. Maybe Rural turnout is super high, Urban is low, and Suburban is in the middle? Idk...