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  NJ-Stockton University: Clinton+6
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Author Topic: NJ-Stockton University: Clinton+6  (Read 2360 times)
bronz4141
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« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2016, 06:10:41 pm »

Clinton will do well in places like New Brunswick and Edison, but the turnout may be lower than it was for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama got 83% in New Brunswick in 2008 and 2012. John Kerry received 78.2% in 2004.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #26 on: October 02, 2016, 12:17:16 am »

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. Wink


Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?

9/11....  47.4% in Bergen County
Just that?

No... obviously a lot more than just that.

NJ has long been a Republican state in Presidential elections until recent election cycles. Moderate Republicans have historically done quite well in both statewide and national elections. (George Bush Sr won the State +13 in '88 with Bergen going +17 R).

Bill Clinton narrowly won NJ by only 2.5% in '92, despite losing Bergen County, but dramatically improved his performance in 1996 for a yuuge swing.

http://americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/new-jersey-likes-incumbents-learning-love-democrats

Additionally, Trump for whatever reason, has performed exceptionally well with Italian-American voters in the primaries. that represent almost 20% of the population of RI, CT, and NJ, as well as in heavily Italian-American neighborhoods and precincts within NY state.

9/11 did play a major factor no doubt, and in particular Bush won 51-48 among White Women and overall won the white vote 54-46, not to mention only losing Latinos 46-53 statewide, which most people don't realize has one of the highest raw numbers of Cuban Americans outside of Florida...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NJ/P/00/epolls.0.html

Needless to say, I have been predicting for awhile that Trump will overperform in places like RI and NJ contrary to statements that others have made on the forum....
Where are the Cubans concentrated?
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cinyc
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« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2016, 12:19:48 am »


In New Jersey?  Union City and environs.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2016, 12:36:07 am »


In New Jersey?  Union City and environs.
Wow.  You learn something new every day.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #29 on: October 02, 2016, 12:48:07 am »

Inshallah the Alabaman Garrett will be defeated. Do you know he voted against the Confederate flag ban, and refused to give money to the RNCC because they supported gay GOP candidates (Tisei)?

Cut off the head of this Copperhead!
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chrisras
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« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2016, 01:20:34 am »

The last two New Jersey polls have Clinton +4 and +6.  Something is brewing in this country.  I think people are fed up with typical politicians and might roll the dice on Trump.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2016, 04:40:26 am »

Junk poll. New Jersey is safe Democratic.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2016, 06:06:43 am »

Junk Poll

Google Consumer Survey NJ Poll is much better and accurate.

New Jersey  Sep. 21-26    Google Consumer Surveys    605 LV  Hillary 38% TRUMP 36%
New Jersey  Sep. 14-20    Google Consumer Surveys    605 LV TRUMP 36% Hillary 36%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus
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