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  NV-RGJ: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: NV-RGJ: Clinton +1  (Read 3345 times)
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2016, 02:23:43 pm »


You Hillary fetishists had your few days of glory and hype, so don't b*tch and moan around when I write "tie", which is totally accurate for that poll.

In what Universe is Clinton 45, Trump 44, a tie?  Close, yes; tied, no.  You're completely in the wrong here.

He had no problem posting Trump +1 in a MO poll in early September. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244808.0

Anyway, I do find Tender descent into full-fledge hack humorous. Bernie lost, dude.....get over it.


There's no difference between C+1 or T+1 or calling it a "tie". Get over my heading ... dude.


There absolutely is.  Just because something is within the margin of error doesn't make it a "tie."  It's not like a result is a 50/50 chance until you exit the margin of error, and it's then suddenly 95%.  Just quit it and fix the title like an adult.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2016, 02:24:01 pm »

Have they polled the Senate race too?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2016, 02:25:52 pm »
« Edited: October 01, 2016, 02:47:16 pm by Likely Voter »

New Poll: Nevada President by Bendixen & Amandi International on 2016-09-29

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, I: 6%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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heatcharger
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2016, 02:26:27 pm »


The article says it's a "developing story" so I assume they'll post their Senate numbers soon enough. I'm sure it won't be too favorable for CCM, but I'm still quite optimistic that all the undecideds will break to the Democrats and the far superior GOTV efforts of the Clinton campaign will carry her to victory.
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Virginia C
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2016, 02:26:57 pm »

Instead of 50 posters launching an attack against me for writing "tie" into a heading, you guys should seriously wonder why Hillary's hyped lead has all but disappeared again within a matter of days in a crucial swing state (which Obama won by 7 and 14) ...

Oh my god Tender, stop acting like a child. You're pulling a Trump now and making a silly little thing into a big deal.

The results were not "tie." The title is not meant to reflect your views on statistical ties. Post the results as they are.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2016, 02:26:58 pm »

There's already a thread on this.

Plz delete.
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Arch
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2016, 02:27:56 pm »

There's already a thread on this.

Plz delete.

You delete your factually inaccurate thread.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2016, 02:28:24 pm »

Instead of 50 posters launching an attack against me for writing "tie" into a heading, you guys should seriously wonder why Hillary's hyped lead has all but disappeared again within a matter of days in a crucial swing state (which Obama won by 7 and 14) ...

Oh my god Tender, stop acting like a child. You're pulling a Trump now and making a silly little thing into a big deal.

The results were not "tie." The title is not meant to reflect your views on statistical ties. Post the results as they are.

Nah, it's really you guys who are acting like a child because you cannot accept my heading ... because of your hatred against me.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2016, 02:30:50 pm »


The article says it's a "developing story" so I assume they'll post their Senate numbers soon enough. I'm sure it won't be too favorable for CCM, but I'm still quite optimistic that all the undecideds will break to the Democrats and the far superior GOTV efforts of the Clinton campaign will carry her to victory.

Yeah, this will probably have CCM trailing, but it won't be too bad if she's not trailing my too much. What matters is the difference between her and Hillary. The Suffolk poll was terrible, not because of the Senate numbers themselves, but because Hillary was up 6.
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Alcon
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« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2016, 02:31:04 pm »

Instead of 50 posters launching an attack against me for writing "tie" into a heading, you guys should seriously wonder why Hillary's hyped lead has all but disappeared again within a matter of days in a crucial swing state (which Obama won by 7 and 14) ...

Oh my god Tender, stop acting like a child. You're pulling a Trump now and making a silly little thing into a big deal.

The results were not "tie." The title is not meant to reflect your views on statistical ties. Post the results as they are.

Nah, it's really you guys who are acting like a child because you cannot accept my heading ... because of your hatred against me.

I don't hate you, and even if I did, that would have absolutely no effect on whether or not you're wrong here.  Which you absolutely are.

Stop being wrong.  It's not that hard.
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Virginia C
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2016, 02:32:45 pm »

Nah, it's really you guys who are acting like a child because you cannot accept my heading ... because of your hatred against me.

I don't hate you Tender, but you're wrong here. The result wasn't a tie. It was C+1, and you're being a stubborn manchild about this. You are wrong and you refuse to admit it.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2016, 02:33:27 pm »

Instead of 50 posters launching an attack against me for writing "tie" into a heading, you guys should seriously wonder why Hillary's hyped lead has all but disappeared again within a matter of days in a crucial swing state (which Obama won by 7 and 14) ...

Disappeared?

Both NV polls were conducted at the same time.
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Arch
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« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2016, 02:35:29 pm »

People are acting like children on this board. Pathetic.

If a number is +1, it's +1, simple as that. It's not about "acting like children."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2016, 02:38:14 pm »

Hmm ...

Hundreds of people have created threads already saying a poll is a "tie", even if a candidate "leads" by 1 (or even 2) points.

But if I post it one time, there's an onslaught of attacks against me ... Roll Eyes
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Virginia C
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« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2016, 02:38:23 pm »

People are acting like children on this board. Pathetic.

If a number is +1, it's +1, simple as that. It's not about "acting like children."

Agreed, but even in that case there's really no reason to start a second thread about that poll. Waste of space.

I have to agree. Tender's thread is a waste of space.
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: October 01, 2016, 02:39:29 pm »

Hmm ...

Hundreds of people have created threads already saying a poll is a "tie", even if a candidate "leads" by 1 (or even 2) points.

But if I post it one time, there's an onslaught of attacks against me ... Roll Eyes

I haven't interacted with you about this in the past, but I can 100% confirm that you're being totally obnoxious right now.  If that's a pattern for you, maybe that's why you're getting more criticism.  People who can't accept polite correction without a bunch of eye-rolling self-pity tend to get less-polite correction.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #41 on: October 01, 2016, 02:40:29 pm »

It's a shame that the Hillary supporters need their own politically correct thread about how a poll result is phrased ...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2016, 02:41:26 pm »

It's a shame that the Hillary supporters need their own politically correct thread about how a poll result is phrased ...

Requesting an objectively accurate statement of the result is now "politically correct" ?
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Alcon
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« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2016, 02:41:35 pm »

It's a shame that the Hillary supporters need their own politically correct thread about how a poll result is phrased ...

God you're being annoying.  "Politically correct" as in normal correct.

It's not "political correctness" when you're wrong and don't want to admit it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2016, 02:43:26 pm »

I'm off now. Do what you want with the thread, merge it, delete it, keep the segregated threads etc.

But I certainly won't re-name it ...
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Alcon
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« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2016, 02:47:12 pm »

I'm off now. Do what you want with the thread, merge it, delete it, keep the segregated threads etc.

But I certainly won't re-name it ...

OK, so despite the fact that I explained the mathematical error you were making, you spent a bunch of time complaining about being corrected, instead of fixing your error, or even conceding it.  Despite this self-pitying nonsense, you seem to think people are being unfair in being impolite to you.  You actually seem to think that "people are mean to me" is sufficient reason not to correct or admit to your error.

Yeah, if you had any question why people aren't being polite to you, this is why.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2016, 02:52:55 pm »

Merged threads also used simpler 'just the facts' title.

As noted before, there should be no editorializing in thread titles and they should accurately reflect the basic numbers for the poll. So either actual results (XX/YY) or margin (Candidate+x).

Any use of 'tie' should be when numbers are exact, not 'statistically tied' due to margin of error.

Any commentary, thoughts or additional context can be done in the thread, not in the headline.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2016, 02:56:00 pm »

So what do people know about this outfits record?

I can buy NV being a virtual tossup, but it does seem to defy trending in the national poll numbers as well as the B+ Suffolk poll.

Nevada is a tough state to poll, and I guess we'll need to see more if this is an outlier or if Suffolk was the outlier.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2016, 02:57:19 pm »

So what do people know about this outfits record?

I can buy NV being a virtual tossup, but it does seem to defy trending in the national poll numbers as well as the B+ Suffolk poll.

Nevada is a tough state to poll, and I guess we'll need to see more if this is an outlier or if Suffolk was the outlier.

I believe this is the same outfit that does the Latino Univision polls, so I would expect them to do a good job in Nevada.
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dspNY
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2016, 02:59:15 pm »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout
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