Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 18, 2019, 07:23:42 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NV-RGJ: Clinton +1
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: NV-RGJ: Clinton +1  (Read 3351 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2016, 03:17:21 pm »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

So realistically maybe more like a C+3 or C+4, essentially splitting the difference between this poll and the Suffolk poll?
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2016, 03:19:39 pm »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

So realistically maybe more like a C+3 or C+4, essentially splitting the difference between this poll and the Suffolk poll?

Yes. 15% Hispanic is too low considering Clinton's ground game and the fact that NV was 19% Hispanic in 2012. There are more Hispanic voters in NV now and fewer white voters than 2012
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,218
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2016, 03:25:08 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm questioning the credibility of this poll. Read Jon Ralston's Twitter feed.
Logged
mark_twain
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 372
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2016, 03:40:27 pm »


This is the first poll conducted by this organization for NV this year.

As the result is +1 in favor of Clinton, this is only a good sign for Clinton.

Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,362
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 01, 2016, 03:58:25 pm »

Comparison between poll demographics and the 2012 exit poll

Poll     2012
65+ years old:    29%18%
<50 years old:43%54%
women:51%53%
whites:70%64%
hispanics:16%19%

so either this pollster is somehow detecting huge shifts in turnout that fly in the face of conventional wisdom, or they oversampled pro-Trump demographics in every way possible

if you're still not convinced that this is a Bad Poll, note that according to the crosstabs, 41% of respondents had graduate degrees
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,236
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 01, 2016, 04:04:03 pm »

At least it is moving in the right direction.
Logged
Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 01, 2016, 04:21:03 pm »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

Excellent! Now all we need is this poll not to show Heck leading by too much... *knocks on wood*
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 01, 2016, 04:27:36 pm »

Not bad for an Adelson poll.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,236
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 01, 2016, 04:28:10 pm »


You Hillary fetishists had your few days of glory and hype, so don't b*tch and moan around when I write "tie", which is totally accurate for that poll.

Must have taken stats at Trump U

LMAO !
I actually remember my Stats 101 class in college ; I really enjoyed it.
8-)
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,591
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 01, 2016, 05:10:48 pm »

If this is the best Sheldon can up with, then it's time to move NV back to Lean Dem.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 01, 2016, 05:31:40 pm »

If this is the best Sheldon can up with, then it's time to move NV back to Lean Dem.

Love it Lief!!! We frequently don't see eye to eye from the primaries on and different personality styles and architypes, but this is class gold dry humor to be quoted after the GE when Clinton wins the state +6-12....   
Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,630
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 02, 2016, 03:00:42 am »


You Hillary fetishists had your few days of glory and hype, so don't b*tch and moan around when I write "tie", which is totally accurate for that poll.
Huh?
So much bitterness man...
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: October 02, 2016, 12:26:19 pm »

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning with that is amazing in itself.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC