NV-RGJ: Clinton +1
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  NV-RGJ: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: NV-RGJ: Clinton +1  (Read 4476 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2016, 03:17:21 PM »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

So realistically maybe more like a C+3 or C+4, essentially splitting the difference between this poll and the Suffolk poll?
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dspNY
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« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2016, 03:19:39 PM »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

So realistically maybe more like a C+3 or C+4, essentially splitting the difference between this poll and the Suffolk poll?

Yes. 15% Hispanic is too low considering Clinton's ground game and the fact that NV was 19% Hispanic in 2012. There are more Hispanic voters in NV now and fewer white voters than 2012
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heatcharger
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« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2016, 03:25:08 PM »

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I'm questioning the credibility of this poll. Read Jon Ralston's Twitter feed.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2016, 03:40:27 PM »


This is the first poll conducted by this organization for NV this year.

As the result is +1 in favor of Clinton, this is only a good sign for Clinton.

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Bacon King
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« Reply #54 on: October 01, 2016, 03:58:25 PM »

Comparison between poll demographics and the 2012 exit poll

Poll     2012
65+ years old:    29%18%
<50 years old:43%54%
women:51%53%
whites:70%64%
hispanics:16%19%

so either this pollster is somehow detecting huge shifts in turnout that fly in the face of conventional wisdom, or they oversampled pro-Trump demographics in every way possible

if you're still not convinced that this is a Bad Poll, note that according to the crosstabs, 41% of respondents had graduate degrees
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #55 on: October 01, 2016, 04:04:03 PM »

At least it is moving in the right direction.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #56 on: October 01, 2016, 04:21:03 PM »

Jon Ralston tweeted that this poll probably overestimates GOP numbers and underestimates Latino turnout

Excellent! Now all we need is this poll not to show Heck leading by too much... *knocks on wood*
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Gass3268
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« Reply #57 on: October 01, 2016, 04:27:36 PM »

Not bad for an Adelson poll.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #58 on: October 01, 2016, 04:28:10 PM »


You Hillary fetishists had your few days of glory and hype, so don't b*tch and moan around when I write "tie", which is totally accurate for that poll.

Must have taken stats at Trump U

LMAO !
I actually remember my Stats 101 class in college ; I really enjoyed it.
8-)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #59 on: October 01, 2016, 05:10:48 PM »

If this is the best Sheldon can up with, then it's time to move NV back to Lean Dem.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #60 on: October 01, 2016, 05:31:40 PM »

If this is the best Sheldon can up with, then it's time to move NV back to Lean Dem.

Love it Lief!!! We frequently don't see eye to eye from the primaries on and different personality styles and architypes, but this is class gold dry humor to be quoted after the GE when Clinton wins the state +6-12....   
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SPQR
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« Reply #61 on: October 02, 2016, 03:00:42 AM »


You Hillary fetishists had your few days of glory and hype, so don't b*tch and moan around when I write "tie", which is totally accurate for that poll.
Huh?
So much bitterness man...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #62 on: October 02, 2016, 12:26:19 PM »

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning with that is amazing in itself.
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