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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Romney's Biggest Mistake
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Author Topic: Romney's Biggest Mistake  (Read 10275 times)
mark_twain
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« on: October 01, 2016, 04:10:52 pm »

In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney won a decisive victory in the 1st debate over Barack Obama.

He gained a lead in the polls that was cancelled by Obama's solid performance in responding to Hurricane Sandy.

Romney should have played a more active role in responding to the hurricane, in order to take some of the glory of the response for himself.

Since then, Romney has regretted losing the election. He is now an outcast to the Republican Party, as he is useless to them.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2016, 05:03:18 pm »

Romney didn't have a biggest mistake. He made so many that it was death by a thousand paper cuts.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 07:55:14 pm »

Hard to say what Romney's biggest mistake was; he was running a campaign against a popular, charismatic incumbent with a strong campaign in a time of economic growth. Coming within 4 percent was an amazing result; anyone else would've lost by double-digits.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 08:05:28 pm »

Romney was seen by many as an uninspiring elitist who couldn't understand average Americans. , I think his 47% comment sealed his fate, though his image had been well established before then. Sure, his performance in the first debate gave him some hope near the end of the campaign, but it wasn't enough. I don't think Romney would've benefited much from being more active in the response to Hurricane Sandy. Maybe he would've done slightly better in New Jersey, but that's about it.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 09:16:26 pm »

The 2012 election was definitely not winnable for Republicans.


Yes it was if the liberal media didn't keep smearing Romney
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2016, 07:26:14 pm »

I think the 47% comment was the biggest one. The comment alone probably wasn't enough to make him lose, but it did help.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 02:01:15 am »

The 2012 election was definitely not winnable for Republicans.

Really? Because I remember the pundits and politicians all saying that Republicans were favored.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 01:08:04 pm »

He should have flooded the airwaves in the summer with a combination of positive spots about his record and negative caricatures of the president. Romney allowed Obama to define him early, which became very difficult to overcome.

I also think he should have pushed hard for Susana Martinez to be his running mate. Ryan didn't really offer very much in the end. If Romney had basically kept Martinez in Nevada, Colorado, and Florida speaking Spanish for three months (plus a few trips into Ohio and Iowa touting her gun ownership), she could have moved the needle.

That being said, the race was winnable for Romney until roughly the second debate. If Romney and Obama had given the same performances in Round Two that they gave in Round One, Mitt Romney would now be the president, easily on track for a second term.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2016, 11:54:27 am »

Hard to say what Romney's biggest mistake was; he was running a campaign against a popular, charismatic incumbent with a strong campaign in a time of economic growth. Coming within 4 percent was an amazing result; anyone else would've lost by double-digits.

Economic growth in 2012 was comparable to what it was in 1992...it's just that Obama was  a better campaigner and didn't have to worry about fatigue (i.e. Democrats had just be in for one term).

And Obama's approval ratings were mediocre too.

Gingrich or Santorum might've lost by more, but nobody was going to lose by double digits. On the other hand if the recovery had been stronger and unemployment had been sub-6%, then yeah Obama could've repeated his '08 victory even running against Romney.
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Dancing with Myself
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2016, 02:32:58 pm »

Romney's biggest problem was that he came off so many times as an absolute tool and was the worst kind of cliche candidate the Republicans could have ran that year. He was everything that the Republicans have wrong with them in one person. Rich, full of himself, douchy, uses religion as a selling point, and he ran a very cliched Republican campaign. There wasn't anything the least bit exciting about that Republican ticket that year they were as predictable as they could be.

The majority (if not all,) of that Republican primary field were all a bunch of destined losers. None of them could have out charisma'd or out talked Obama. Romney was the least loony of the bunch who stayed in (Huntsman could have been better perhaps but he quit,)and had the most moderate appeal. Gingrich and especially Santorum would have gotten destroyed especially in the debates. Obama would rip Santourm a new one over a lot of stuff.

I agree with Yankee that it wasn't just one thing that killed Mitt. It was a solid mix of errors and vanity on his part. First and most importantly was the 47% comment; that alienated a lot of people off the bat (including me as I was going to college then,) and he never got over that. He also never properly attacked Obama good enough in terms of defending his rep and character. He let Obama label him early and when he did attack it felt desperate. He could never put down the 47% comment or his business reputation and Obama pounced like the shark in a suit he was. Secondly was the very mediocre-ldy ran convention. It didn't give Mitt a good boost like he could have gotten afterwards and it just didn't motivate the bases very well. He got a limited boost at best that didn't go very far.Then came his various gaffes in the debates like the binders comment, the Big Bird moment, and Obama's put down over the military deal and Romney's lame laughing reaction.  That moment right there was Obama's mike drop and when he started to seal the deal. Romney looked lame and weak and that was the worst thing he could have done.

Obama presented hope still despite being the incumbent, Romney didn't. There wasn't a thing hopeful or optimistic about his message. That's one thing Trump did better; he promoted something different and more hopeful for the Republican base and appealed to all groups not just conservatives and moderates. Romney was so vain to think that they'd come running to him as their savior that he'd taught himself into believing it and when it didn't happen it rocked his world.

It's like Vince McMahon said about Bret Hart: "Mitt Screwed Mitt."
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GMantis
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« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2016, 02:41:07 am »

In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney won a decisive victory in the 1st debate over Barack Obama.
And did worse than him in the second and much worse in the third debate.

He gained a lead in the polls that was cancelled by Obama's solid performance in responding to Hurricane Sandy.
[/quote]
Romney did not get a lead in the polls. He merely narrowed Obama's lead and this had been mostly reversed after the next two debates, before Hurricane Sandy. In any case, this narrowing concerned the popular vote. Obama's lead in the Electoral College was never really in doubt.

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He would have looked ridiculous trying to usurp the President's functions.
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nevertrumperCA
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2017, 10:33:12 pm »

Does anyone here think Trump could have won in 2012?
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Eharding
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2017, 10:35:19 pm »

Does anyone here think Trump could have won in 2012?

-It's possible. He would have done better in Ohio.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2017, 10:56:24 pm »

The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive
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Eharding
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2017, 11:25:59 pm »

The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive

-How does that help him win Ohio, a state which is now (probably ludicrously) considered a solid Republican state by the denizens of Atlas?

To make up for his weaknesses, Romney shouldn't have bothered with his cutsey business conservative/Bushian message. He should have discarded it for the garbage it was. People saw him as an out-of-touch elitist. He should have brushed up on his populist cred.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2017, 12:59:37 am »
« Edited: February 03, 2017, 01:04:04 am by Old School Republican »

The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive

-How does that help him win Ohio, a state which is now (probably ludicrously) considered a solid Republican state by the denizens of Atlas?

To make up for his weaknesses, Romney shouldn't have bothered with his cutsey business conservative/Bushian message. He should have discarded it for the garbage it was. People saw him as an out-of-touch elitist. He should have brushed up on his populist cred.

Ohio PVI was +1 GOP in 2012 and changing those things gives GOP a national win of 1.5-2.5 points which gives Mitt a 2.5-3.5 win in Ohio


In fact I believe if he did those things this would be the map:




Romney/Rubio 279  50.8%
Obama/Biden 259    48.9%
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« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2017, 05:23:26 pm »


Why? What would he gain. He still had the tea party reputation at the time.

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No, that would be pretty weak. The Reagan recovery wasn't that great, and appealing to some guy from thirty years ago isn't a good look.

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That gaffe wasn't public. It was leaked from a fundraiser among people who liked that kind of talk. I'm not sure that kind of advice would be the greatest.

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What?

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What does that mean?


Your suggestions are the kind of things that would make people with your views and style like Romney more, but it wouldn't help among the general electorate.
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Eharding
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« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2017, 05:44:57 pm »


Why? What would he gain. He still had the tea party reputation at the time.

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No, that would be pretty weak. The Reagan recovery wasn't that great, and appealing to some guy from thirty years ago isn't a good look.

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That gaffe wasn't public. It was leaked from a fundraiser among people who liked that kind of talk. I'm not sure that kind of advice would be the greatest.

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What?

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What does that mean?


Your suggestions are the kind of things that would make people with your views and style like Romney more, but it wouldn't help among the general electorate.

-For once, Scarlet says something true.
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2017, 06:26:29 pm »

The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive

-How does that help him win Ohio, a state which is now (probably ludicrously) considered a solid Republican state by the denizens of Atlas?

To make up for his weaknesses, Romney shouldn't have bothered with his cutsey business conservative/Bushian message. He should have discarded it for the garbage it was. People saw him as an out-of-touch elitist. He should have brushed up on his populist cred.

Populist cred caused Trump to lose votes compared to Romney (compare Trump's 45.9% to Romney's 47.2%); he simply got lucky that Hillary declined from Obama as well. (Though Trump '16 compared to Obama '12 does do slightly better in the electoral vote; Trump gains Ohio and only drops NE-2). Romney's platform had more support from the voters than Trump's.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2017, 06:35:30 pm »

Hard to say what Romney's biggest mistake was; he was running a campaign against a popular, charismatic incumbent with a strong campaign in a time of economic growth. Coming within 4 percent was an amazing result; anyone else would've lost by double-digits.

Obama had approval ratings in the negatives, it wasn't 2016. 
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Vosem
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2017, 06:45:11 pm »

Hard to say what Romney's biggest mistake was; he was running a campaign against a popular, charismatic incumbent with a strong campaign in a time of economic growth. Coming within 4 percent was an amazing result; anyone else would've lost by double-digits.

Obama had approval ratings in the negatives, it wasn't 2016. 

RCP has Obama's approval at 50/47 on Election Day 2012, which isn't great but is definitely above-water and almost perfectly resembles the actual election result of 51/47. Obama's approval ratings were consistently positive from September 8, 2012, to May 29, 2013, inclusive.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2017, 09:48:09 pm »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.

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Eharding
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2017, 09:54:26 pm »

The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive

-How does that help him win Ohio, a state which is now (probably ludicrously) considered a solid Republican state by the denizens of Atlas?

To make up for his weaknesses, Romney shouldn't have bothered with his cutsey business conservative/Bushian message. He should have discarded it for the garbage it was. People saw him as an out-of-touch elitist. He should have brushed up on his populist cred.

Populist cred caused Trump to lose votes compared to Romney (compare Trump's 45.9% to Romney's 47.2%); he simply got lucky that Hillary declined from Obama as well. (Though Trump '16 compared to Obama '12 does do slightly better in the electoral vote; Trump gains Ohio and only drops NE-2). Romney's platform had more support from the voters than Trump's.

-Yeah, but 47% wouldn't have won Mitt 270. 46% won Trump over 300.
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Eharding
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« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2017, 09:55:33 pm »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.



-I was befuddled why he ran as a sacrificial lamb in 2008. 2012 was a winnable year for the GOP; it was just that the GOP ran a slate of bad candidates, Romney included, hurting the GOP up and down the ballot.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2017, 10:32:36 pm »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.



-I was befuddled why he ran as a sacrificial lamb in 2008. 2012 was a winnable year for the GOP; it was just that the GOP ran a slate of bad candidates, Romney included, hurting the GOP up and down the ballot.

That's a good point.... in theory he might well have been a stronger GE candidate against Obama in '08 than '12.....

McCain ran on doubling-down on the Iraq War, as well as other relatively hawkish foreign policy items, at a time where America was going through war wariness with the daily body counts increasing as part of a non-unified, but still significant Iraqi insurgency, incorporating virtually all ethnic groups within the country (Excepting the Kurds that were biding their time for an independent state)....

Romney would likely have been better positioned as the Republican nominee to present a moderate Republican perspective on how to recover from the great recession and economic policy, while still winding down the war in Iraq in a responsible manner, similar to what Obama did....

IDK if any Republican could have beaten Obama in '08 after the failure of the George W. administration, on both economic and foreign policy items, but I think the Pubs by selecting a candidate that was tone deaf on the War in Iraq, made the job that much harder to win over Indies, Conservative Dems, and Liberal/Moderate Republicans to create a popular vote and electoral college majority, particularly in the key battleground states of the Upper Midwest, Western US, as well as key parts of the South Atlantic region....
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