Hungary EU quota referendum, Oct.2, 2016

[rob in cal]

   Looks like tomorrow we have the Hungarian referendum in which the people are asked whether Hungary should accept migrants as part of an-EU wide quota without the approval of the national legislature.  The main opposition is calling for a boycott, Fidesz and other right of center parties for a no vote.  Big question is turnout.

[aross]

Fidesz and other right of center parties

Understatement of the year right here.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

91% YES, ban refugees from Hungary
  9% No

Turnout: 43% (below the 50% required).

[DavidB.]

Prediction

86% No
13% Yes
Turnout 48%

[aross]

Turnout projected at 45% (electoral commission). Nézőpont exit poll has 42% turnout, 5% Yes.
Government accepts threshold has not been reached but says referendum is still 'valid' (not that it ever had any legal meaning o/c).

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

98% voted in favor
Voter turnout was 43.7%, short of 50% required by law to make referendum legally binding

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance this weakens Orban and gives the opposition a chance to rebuild?

[Hifly]

Any chance this weakens Orban and gives the opposition a chance to rebuild?

Yes, it will certainly provide Jobbik an opportunity.

[Sorenroy]

Does anyone know where I can find the official results? (A website or something?)

[aross]

Does anyone know where I can find the official results? (A website or something?)

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/ref2016/481/481_0_index.html

Final results*:

Eligible voters:  8 261 394
Votes cast: 3 587 173 (43.42%)
 - Invalid votes 223 252 (6.27%; 2.70% of eligible voters)
 - Valid votes 3 338 483 (93.73%; 40.41% of eligible voters)
   - Yes 55 555 [lol] (1.66%; 0.67% of eligible voters)
   - No 3 282 928 (98.34%; 39.74% of eligible voters)

*There are still 22349 uncounted postal votes shown, but that hasn't changed for a while. Who knows, never mind.

Any chance this weakens Orban and gives the opposition a chance to rebuild?

Hardly, this was always going to be irrelevant either way. If anything they'd better re-form their coalition (which on balance is likely, but by no means guaranteed) or Jobbik will surpass them. Though I still don't get why Ferenc 'We have fu**ed it up, and obviously been lying throughout the past two years' Gyurcsány's  little cult of all people are experiencing a mini-surge.

[Sorenroy]

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/ref2016/481/481_0_index.html

   - No 3 282 928 (98.34%; 39.74% of eligible voters)

Not saying I support the referendum, but it seems pretty busted that No would have won with less votes if the Yes vote turned out in more force. Even if Yes got every last vote up to that 50% turnout line it still would have been an easy No victory. Seems to me that the law should be that the winner gets at least 25% of the voter turnout (in a two way election at least), otherwise you could strategically stay home to deny the other side a victory.

[rob in cal]

  Yeah, I'd like to see what the true results of the vote would have been without the quorum rule.  Obviously many of the those who stayed at home would have voted "yes", but others would have voted "no" also, and still others still wouldn't have voted.

[aross]

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/ref2016/481/481_0_index.html

   - No 3 282 928 (98.34%; 39.74% of eligible voters)

Not saying I support the referendum, but it seems pretty busted that No would have won with less votes if the Yes vote turned out in more force. Even if Yes got every last vote up to that 50% turnout line it still would have been an easy No victory. Seems to me that the law should be that the winner gets at least 25% of the voter turnout (in a two way election at least), otherwise you could strategically stay home to deny the other side a victory.

To play grudge-bearing Scotsman for a moment, the '79 referendum, the first noteworthy example of this sort of quorum that springs to mind for me at least, still wouldn't have passed with a result like this. But when a third of the register is fictional in some places...

But yes, in general that is the 'cleanest' way of doing it, only problem is it doesn't work when there is no clear status quo on the ballot. 25% is awfully low though, a third perhaps - but that is essentially personal preference.

[Associate Justice PiT]

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/ref2016/481/481_0_index.html

   - No 3 282 928 (98.34%; 39.74% of eligible voters)

Not saying I support the referendum, but it seems pretty busted that No would have won with less votes if the Yes vote turned out in more force. Even if Yes got every last vote up to that 50% turnout line it still would have been an easy No victory. Seems to me that the law should be that the winner gets at least 25% of the voter turnout (in a two way election at least), otherwise you could strategically stay home to deny the other side a victory.

     That bothered me too. Even though the referendum would have clearly won with 50% turnout as well, the will of the people can be ignored since the turnout wasn't high enough. Referendum quora give too much power to minority positions to control the outcome by boycotting the vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Though I still don't get why Ferenc 'We have fu**ed it up, and obviously been lying throughout the past two years' Gyurcsány's  little cult of all people are experiencing a mini-surge.

Oh. Weird indeed.

The fact that Gyurcsány hasn't had the good taste to leave politics is upsetting in and of itself.

[swl]

The government was not able to make a law of what was decided in this referendum. It didn't get the two thirds majority needed in Parliament.
Since the referendum was non-binding, it means the result will be ignored (legally speaking).

[DavidB.]

Fidesz and other right of center parties

Understatement of the year right here.

Hahahahaha, indeed.

[IceAgeComing]

It only was blocked because Jobbik boycotted the vote; the government still might be able to reverse the decision if they give in to their demands