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| | | | |-+  NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24
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Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24  (Read 3579 times)
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2016, 11:31:59 am »

I highly doubt Johnson will get anything like that, or that the margin will be anywhere near that close. The two-way number is somewhat more plausible.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #26 on: October 02, 2016, 11:36:57 am »

If Johnson actually gets that much, Trump would probably end up in third place on election day. With that said, this poll is way too favorable to Johnson.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2016, 11:38:00 am »

I seriously doubt Johnson is going to get more than 20% here.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2016, 11:41:20 am »

If Johnson wins here and gets enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes, I legitimately wonder what the congressional delegations will do.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #29 on: October 02, 2016, 11:47:09 am »

If Johnson wins here and gets enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes, I legitimately wonder what the congressional delegations will do.

There are more states with Republican majorities in the House. They'll pick Trump even if he loses the popular vote by 5%.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2016, 12:09:55 pm »

Junk poll is junk.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #31 on: October 02, 2016, 12:25:55 pm »

If Johnson wins here and gets enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes, I legitimately wonder what the congressional delegations will do.

There are more states with Republican majorities in the House. They'll pick Trump even if he loses the popular vote by 5%.

The house can pick Johnson, constitution says top 3 in EVs. Considering there won't be any risk of electing Hillary (an absolute majority of states is required, plurality doesn't cut it), I could see the house settling on Johnson.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #32 on: October 02, 2016, 12:30:52 pm »

If Johnson wins here and gets enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes, I legitimately wonder what the congressional delegations will do.

There are more states with Republican majorities in the House. They'll pick Trump even if he loses the popular vote by 5%.

The house can pick Johnson, constitution says top 3 in EVs. Considering there won't be any risk of electing Hillary (an absolute majority of states is required, plurality doesn't cut it), I could see the house settling on Johnson.
"Ok, you only won your home state, which is worth 5 EVs. Here's your prize: The presidency."
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DavidB.
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« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2016, 12:32:52 pm »

The house can pick Johnson, constitution says top 3 in EVs. Considering there won't be any risk of electing Hillary (an absolute majority of states is required, plurality doesn't cut it), I could see the house settling on Johnson.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #34 on: October 02, 2016, 12:35:23 pm »

WOWza !

Looks like there's a huge disconnect between the hype of the Hillary fetishists this week and the real world and actual voters ... hopefully Hillary is not in for a rough surprise on election night when the actual votes are counted, not just those of her out-of-touch supporters and the media pundits.

Wink
Are you ok.  You seem to be going nuts.  Is the racist that your country s going to elect really affecting you this much. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #35 on: October 02, 2016, 12:58:35 pm »

Stein is at 2% if anyone cares.

I doubt Johnson will get anywhere near 24% on election day but 10%+ should happen.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2016, 01:30:34 pm »

Johnson might deliver NM to Trump lol

Wut
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2016, 01:43:12 pm »

Johnson might deliver NM to Trump lol

Not going to happen.
Sorry.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2016, 02:17:04 pm »

At most, come election day, New Mexico will be "Likely D" instead of "Safe D."
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Seriously?
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« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2016, 02:20:34 pm »

If Johnson wins here and gets enough to prevent either Trump or Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes, I legitimately wonder what the congressional delegations will do.

There are more states with Republican majorities in the House. They'll pick Trump even if he loses the popular vote by 5%.

The house can pick Johnson, constitution says top 3 in EVs. Considering there won't be any risk of electing Hillary (an absolute majority of states is required, plurality doesn't cut it), I could see the house settling on Johnson.
I could see the House, which has more net-Republican delegations, voting Donald Trump in.

With that said, Johnson still trails by double-digits and is in not position to win New Mexico, so this really is moot.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2016, 02:40:17 pm »

Looks like Nate Silver wrote an entire article on a deadlocked election all based around this poll

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/
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Ebsy
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« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2016, 02:42:31 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #42 on: October 02, 2016, 02:47:18 pm »

Looks like Nate Silver wrote an entire article on a deadlocked election all based around this poll

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

Quote
Because New Mexico hasnít been polled much, the survey had a fair amount of influence on our forecast, reducing Clintonís chances of winning New Mexico to 82 percent from 85 percent in the polls-only model.

3-point shift in odds = GAME CHANGER.

lol
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #43 on: October 02, 2016, 02:56:30 pm »

"Ok, you only won your home state, which is worth 5 EVs. Here's your prize: The presidency."

Ah, the Kasich strategy.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: October 02, 2016, 03:04:10 pm »

New Mexico is not nearly as solidly a Democratic state as some on the forum would believe.

However, I still envision Clinton winning by 8-10 points depending upon the final 3rd party numbers.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #45 on: October 02, 2016, 03:11:29 pm »

Wow, looks like Tender's disgusting and all-consuming hatred of women and immigrants has turned his brain to mush. Very sad.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #46 on: October 02, 2016, 03:38:31 pm »

Would be impossible to actually pull off but the smart play would for Trump supporters to vote for Johnson. An election thrown to the House would likely mean a President Trump. Of course your average Trump supporter would never grasp the concept.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #47 on: October 02, 2016, 08:29:41 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I know things are a bit different in Hackland, but he's pretty clearly a liberal Democrat.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #48 on: October 02, 2016, 08:42:15 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I know things are a bit different in Hackland, but he's pretty clearly a liberal Democrat.

Uh no, in 2012 he said "I'd say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose." Doesn't sound like a Democrat to me.

Regardless, his model is too volatile because he's committed to adding every single poll even if they are junk tracking polls with supposedly large sample sizes like USC/LA Times or Reuters. It exaggerates the amount of fluctuation in the race.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #49 on: October 02, 2016, 08:42:36 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I know things are a bit different in Hackland, but he's pretty clearly a liberal Democrat.

I have been following Silver since he was posting as Poblano on Daily Kos during the Dem primaries in 2008. He is definitely not a Republican.  
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