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Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24  (Read 3590 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2016, 01:36:06 am »

35% Clinton
31% Trump
24% Johnson
  2% Stein

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The poll was conducted from Sept. 27-29, beginning the day after the first presidential debate. The poll surveyed 501 likely New Mexico voters and contained a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. All of the poll respondents were questioned by live interviewers, with 52 percent of respondents reached by cellphone and 48 percent on land lines.

https://www.abqjournal.com/857961/clinton-trump-in-tight-race-in-new-mexico.html
« Last Edit: October 02, 2016, 10:24:06 am by Likely Voter »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2016, 01:38:18 am »

WOWza !

Looks like there's a huge disconnect between the hype of the Hillary fetishists this week and the real world and actual voters ... hopefully Hillary is not in for a rough surprise on election night when the actual votes are counted, not just those of her out-of-touch supporters and the media pundits.

Wink
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2016, 01:41:13 am »

Here we go with the editorializing again. Are you literally unable to follow basic forum decorum?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2016, 01:43:09 am »

New Poll: New Mexico President by Research & Polling Inc on 2016-09-29

Summary: D: 35%, R: 31%, I: 26%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2016, 01:44:01 am »

Bizarre.  I'd like to see PPP poll here again.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2016, 01:45:00 am »

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%

By the way, how hard is it to put at least the Clinton +4 number in the thread title instead of editorializing?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2016, 01:46:26 am »

WOWza !

Looks like there's a huge disconnect between the hype of the Hillary fetishists this week and the real world and actual voters ... hopefully Hillary is not in for a rough surprise on election night when the actual votes are counted, not just those of her out-of-touch supporters and the media pundits.

Wink

The Wink doesn't make it less insufferable.

Your HHB remains quite sad.

I also don't but for a SECOND that this is anywhere near the likely result.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2016, 01:46:59 am »

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%

By the way, how hard is it to put at least the Clinton +4 number in the thread title instead of editorializing?

I put it into the database entry, so you guys are not freaking out entirely again ...

If you click on the thread, you'll see the +4 number anyway.
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Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2016, 01:47:11 am »

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%

By the way, how hard is it to put at least the Clinton +4 number in the thread title instead of editorializing?

Clinton+10 in the head-to-head, +4 even with Johnson in the mix (as he's progressively fading the closer we are to election day), and Tender says: "Muh swing state." Please.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2016, 01:48:47 am »


here Red Avatars used to understimate Google Survey NM Polls & Reuters/Ipsos NM Polls
But it seems Google Survey & Reuters/Ipsos wasn't outlier.
Wink

   #BattleGroundNewMexico

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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2016, 01:49:48 am »


here Red Avatars used to understimate Google Survey NM Polls & Reuters/Ipsos NM Polls
But it seems Google Survey & Reuters/Ipsos wasn't outlier.
Wink

   #BattleGroundNewMexico

Img


#TossUpWyoming
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2016, 01:50:10 am »

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%

By the way, how hard is it to put at least the Clinton +4 number in the thread title instead of editorializing?

Clinton+10 in the head-to-head, +4 even with Johnson in the mix (as he's progressively fading the closer we are to election day), and Tender says: "Muh swing state." Please.

Not in NM -> Johnson's 24% are a record-high there.

So, he's not fading away. He's an established factor in the state.

Even in 2012, when the ABQ Journal poll came pretty close to the actual election result (O+10), by showing O+9, they got the eventual Johnson number right ...
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matthew27
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2016, 01:52:47 am »

Lol,

Hispanic support in this country is under 20% for Trump and New Mexico is like 48% Hispanic. So I seriously doubt that she doesn't win by at least 10% on election day.

The state should be more favorable then 2008 or 2012 for her.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2016, 02:40:12 am »

New Mexico is very hard to poll for even good pollsters.
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2016, 03:52:11 am »

(Obligatory include the actual number in the title comment)

Johnson could conceivably win a county or two with numbers like that. Fascinating.

Edit: Thinking about it, this would be the best third party result in a state since 1992. I'll bet that he will win some precincts at the very least.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2016, 03:54:45 am by Fubart Solman »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2016, 03:54:59 am »

(Obligatory include the actual number in the title comment)

Johnson could conceivably win a county or two with numbers like that. Fascinating.
More than likely inflated. A PPP poll of New Mexico prior to the 2012 election has Johnson at 24 points. He ended up getting less than 4.
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dax00
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2016, 04:18:06 am »

interesting. i'm rooting for johnson to actually win new mexico here
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2016, 05:18:43 am »

(Obligatory include the actual number in the title comment)

Johnson could conceivably win a county or two with numbers like that. Fascinating.
More than likely inflated. A PPP poll of New Mexico prior to the 2012 election has Johnson at 24 points. He ended up getting less than 4.

That poll was taken in December of 2011. It's not comparable to a poll taken a month and a half before the election. His numbers may go down, but they won't drop to 4%. Hell, I doubt his nationwide numbers will go down to 4%.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2016, 05:22:25 am »

Bad! Third party candidates are a joke.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2016, 05:52:02 am »

Looks like there's a huge disconnect between the hype of the Hillary fetishists this week and the real world and actual voters ... hopefully Hillary is not in for a rough surprise on election night when the actual votes are counted, not just those of her out-of-touch supporters and the media pundits.

Ah, so Hillary supporters are the real problem, nevermind the substantial minority of this country right now that is enthusiastic for someone like Donald Trump. I've always respected a lot of what you've had to say on various topics, but this is not funny. You may not like Hillary Clinton, but she's actually tried to accommodate Bernie supporters (not to mention having his strong and unwavering support). Let me put this in simple terms: a Clinton landslide with downballot coattails means a strong progressive agenda actually gets signed into law, a narrow Clinton victory basically means Democratic domination in the federal judiciary for a generation and continued control of executive agencies, and a Trump victory is pretty self-explanatory I think.

With that said, in the end, I don't think Gary Johnson will get above 15% in any state when all is said and done.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2016, 05:56:47 am »

as was explained this week once again, debates like the first one of 2016 or the first one of 2012 make supporters of the losing candidate less likely to participate in surveys for some days....which results into making a poll-winning-margin even bigger.

this is very much the "real" world - it's just not some kind of final truth at the moment and could still change.
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2016, 09:57:43 am »

And while I don't deny that a result showing Clinton up by more would be desirable, why exactly are we so concerned? She is winning after all.  I don't see Johnson gaining any more in NM.  In electoral college system it doesn't matter if you win by 1% or by 50% you get all the votes.  If he does get 25% of the vote and she still wins it will linger forever on some Wikipedia page, but that's about it.

Also, is there really that much support for Johnson among Hispanics as this poll is suggesting?

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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2016, 10:02:55 am »

Oh FFS Tender.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2016, 10:09:25 am »

(Obligatory include the actual number in the title comment)

Johnson could conceivably win a county or two with numbers like that. Fascinating.
More than likely inflated. A PPP poll of New Mexico prior to the 2012 election has Johnson at 24 points. He ended up getting less than 4.

That's from 11 months before the election. We're only a month out.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2016, 11:16:47 am »

Johnson might deliver NM to Trump lol
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