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  NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24
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Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24  (Read 4113 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #50 on: October 02, 2016, 09:33:57 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

Just what.

He accepted a paid speaking event in front of a Republican group...which somehow makes him a "paid Republican operative," as if he was giving them any proprietary information, and not just stuff he's said in public a bunch (as if that matters anyway).  It's silly nonsense.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #51 on: October 02, 2016, 09:34:38 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

Just what.

He accepted a paid speaking event in front of a Republican group...which somehow makes him a "paid Republican operative," as if he was giving them any proprietary information, and not just stuff he's said in public a bunch (as if that matters anyway).  It's silly nonsense.

Uh, he's also been unskewing polls like crazy in favor of Trump this year. Actually behaving exactly like that Dean Chambers joke who attacked him so much in 2012 hilariously.
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« Reply #52 on: October 02, 2016, 09:38:16 pm »

It's probably not even an issue of party. You have to remember that Silver works for a media outlet and the media needs a horse race when it comes to presidential elections. He's only doing what he needs to do for his employer to stay relevant.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #53 on: October 02, 2016, 09:43:39 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

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Alcon
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« Reply #54 on: October 02, 2016, 09:45:14 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

Just what.

He accepted a paid speaking event in front of a Republican group...which somehow makes him a "paid Republican operative," as if he was giving them any proprietary information, and not just stuff he's said in public a bunch (as if that matters anyway).  It's silly nonsense.

Uh, he's also been unskewing polls like crazy in favor of Trump this year. Actually behaving exactly like that Dean Chambers joke who attacked him so much in 2012 hilariously.

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  I've never seen Silver advocate for weighting based on political variables; quite the opposite, in fact.  Explain?

It's probably not even an issue of party. You have to remember that Silver works for a media outlet and the media needs a horse race when it comes to presidential elections. He's only doing what he needs to do for his employer to stay relevant.

Do you have any evidence he's "unskewing" unreasonably, or exaggerating uncertainty, or whatever?  I get that there's probably some pressure to focus on competitiveness and uncertainty -- not sure how much of that is coming from ESPN -- but it's not like this hasn't been a fairly high-uncertainty and reasonably competitive election year.  I don't know when he's been hyperbolic about that.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #55 on: October 02, 2016, 09:47:59 pm »

It's probably not even an issue of party. You have to remember that Silver works for a media outlet and the media needs a horse race when it comes to presidential elections. He's only doing what he needs to do for his employer to stay relevant.

My take on Nate S and 538 is that he started as this political geek in '08, made a big name for himself, shifted and got a raise and hired onto the NYT in time for the '12 election, and then got his dream job working for ESPN in time for '16 and focusing on sport statistics, which is his first geek love, and now has a decent job with people working for him, and doesn't pay as much attention to politics as he used to, since its only one of his business service lines, and the new bosses are a bit more interested in his sports stats than election stats.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #56 on: October 02, 2016, 10:27:22 pm »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I know things are a bit different in Hackland, but he's pretty clearly a liberal Democrat.

Uh no, in 2012 he said "I'd say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose." Doesn't sound like a Democrat to me.

Regardless, his model is too volatile because he's committed to adding every single poll even if they are junk tracking polls with supposedly large sample sizes like USC/LA Times or Reuters. It exaggerates the amount of fluctuation in the race.

Umm, does he mean Gary Johnson or Barack Obama?  Or libertarian and conservative?  I think there must have been a misspeak or a typo there.
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Kempros
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« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2016, 01:23:19 am »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I forget the source (I think it was CNN) that said that Nate Silver is the Democrats' "re-assure" guy. He skews the polls as you probably know to fit the picture better. He does have a very cool map though.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #58 on: October 03, 2016, 07:34:44 am »

WOWza !

Looks like there's a huge disconnect between the hype of the Hillary fetishists this week and the real world and actual voters ... hopefully Hillary is not in for a rough surprise on election night when the actual votes are counted, not just those of her out-of-touch supporters and the media pundits.

Wink

Where is my royalty check, Tender?!  I will also accept a bag of schillings if that's what you can afford.
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PeteB
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« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2016, 09:16:25 am »

Interesting poll.  It does show that, on paper at least, any one of the three could win NM.  However, at this point, the most likely winner is Clinton.  The only other likely scenarios are:

1. Trump implodes while Clinton gets a lot of bad press (Assange?).  Clinton's share holds steady, while many Trump voters switch to Johnson (who itm does NOT have another Aleppo moment) and Johnson carries NM.

2. Trump cleans up his act and for once in his life manages to stay disciplined for a month (Smiley) while Clinton gets buried by new negative revelations.  Johnson figures out that Aleppo is the capital of Mexico and proceeds to tell journalists that.  Trump carries NM.

I would say that the probability of a Clinton win are 85%, of a Johnson upset perhaps 10% and of a Trump comeback less than 5%.
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Alcon
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« Reply #60 on: October 03, 2016, 09:48:58 am »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I forget the source (I think it was CNN) that said that Nate Silver is the Democrats' "re-assure" guy. He skews the polls as you probably know to fit the picture better. He does have a very cool map though.

Did "CNN" (the network said it?) explain what any of that means?  The "house effect" correction skews toward neither party by definition.  For most of this year, the "polls-plus" model he does has benefited Trump, because it sees "the fundamentals" as favoring a tight election.  The FiveThirtyEight model has pretty consistently given Trump higher chances than any of the other models out there.  Besides Silver's clear personal animosity for Trump, how is he the "re-assure" guy, and how does he "skew" the polls?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #61 on: October 03, 2016, 09:54:53 am »

silver isn't reassuring anyone.

i am pretty sure most people in the political data journalism scene are against trump on a personal basis but i haven't seen a single proof that silver is helping anyone...just testing his own assumptions about data.

and i am happier with a trump candidacy looking stronger than it really is than one being stronger than it seems.
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