NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24 (user search)
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  NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24  (Read 5884 times)
Alcon
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« on: October 02, 2016, 09:33:57 PM »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

Just what.

He accepted a paid speaking event in front of a Republican group...which somehow makes him a "paid Republican operative," as if he was giving them any proprietary information, and not just stuff he's said in public a bunch (as if that matters anyway).  It's silly nonsense.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2016, 09:45:14 PM »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

Just what.

He accepted a paid speaking event in front of a Republican group...which somehow makes him a "paid Republican operative," as if he was giving them any proprietary information, and not just stuff he's said in public a bunch (as if that matters anyway).  It's silly nonsense.

Uh, he's also been unskewing polls like crazy in favor of Trump this year. Actually behaving exactly like that Dean Chambers joke who attacked him so much in 2012 hilariously.

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  I've never seen Silver advocate for weighting based on political variables; quite the opposite, in fact.  Explain?

It's probably not even an issue of party. You have to remember that Silver works for a media outlet and the media needs a horse race when it comes to presidential elections. He's only doing what he needs to do for his employer to stay relevant.

Do you have any evidence he's "unskewing" unreasonably, or exaggerating uncertainty, or whatever?  I get that there's probably some pressure to focus on competitiveness and uncertainty -- not sure how much of that is coming from ESPN -- but it's not like this hasn't been a fairly high-uncertainty and reasonably competitive election year.  I don't know when he's been hyperbolic about that.
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 09:48:58 AM »

Nate Silver is literally a paid GOP operative so this is hardly surprising. NM is safe D and I invite Trump/Johnson to waste all the money they want there.

I forget the source (I think it was CNN) that said that Nate Silver is the Democrats' "re-assure" guy. He skews the polls as you probably know to fit the picture better. He does have a very cool map though.

Did "CNN" (the network said it?) explain what any of that means?  The "house effect" correction skews toward neither party by definition.  For most of this year, the "polls-plus" model he does has benefited Trump, because it sees "the fundamentals" as favoring a tight election.  The FiveThirtyEight model has pretty consistently given Trump higher chances than any of the other models out there.  Besides Silver's clear personal animosity for Trump, how is he the "re-assure" guy, and how does he "skew" the polls?
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