The Great Thailand Thread
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Author Topic: The Great Thailand Thread  (Read 2312 times)
Simfan34
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« on: August 04, 2015, 08:41:24 AM »
« edited: August 04, 2015, 08:46:13 AM by Simfan34 »

Continually postponed elections continue to be postponed

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Wissanu doing the delay dance as usual.

Depending on who you ask, this means they're either still waiting on a certain someone to die (which of course will mean postponing the elections for even longer), or, if you believe said person will be hooked to a machine and kept alive until the age of 100, are trying to stall while they carry out their "reforms", a word which here means "beating all political parties (not just Thaksin's) into a great neutered pulp" and purging the police. And maybe Prayuth will stay in office after elections in which no party wins more than 20% of the vote, as they used to. Or perhaps both.  Either way, updates to follow.
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Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2015, 09:14:14 PM »

Who would be the immediate winners and losers in the event of the demise of a certain individual?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2015, 01:17:55 PM »

Immediate winner: said individual's son, his son's close associates, and probably the kind of people who want to abolish his job

Immediate losers: pretty much everyone else

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named(-In-This-Context) is so ingrained into the national consciousness that his death would induce mass disorientation across the public that would preempt any kind of reaction for some time. Many if not most Thais simply refuse to consider the event of his death, and when they do, the speak of it in circumlocutions like this.  Fewer still, then know what they'll do after it happens.

A professor of mine once told me the story of a woman at a lecture he was giving. He mentioned that you-know-who would die, at which a Thai woman promptly burst into tears and ran out of the room. She came back, but could not control herself and ran out again, this time not to return.

There are many who have taken shelter under the institution's prestige (the military, commercial groups, elements within the sangha) and many that have been stymied by opponents benefiting from having that... umbrella extended over them. Once that it is removed it is likely people will be more inclined to speak out and redress present imbalances... but in the immediate aftermath it's hard to see anything in particular, except what I imagine foreigners will consider somewhat unsettlingly excessive levels of mourning.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2015, 11:28:30 PM »

Thai PM says brother could be new army chief



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I can appoint my brother Army commander AND THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT!

After all, Thailand must be protected from the corrupt and nepotistic Thaksin.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2015, 06:06:41 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2015, 06:11:03 PM by Zioneer »

So what exactly is Prayut Chan-o-cha doing? I went on an LDS mission (not in Thailand obviously) shortly before the coup, so I'm a little out of the loop. I know he's taken power and done what generals taking power generally do, but what exactly has he been doing while in power?
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2015, 11:41:57 AM »

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Article.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2015, 03:20:00 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2015, 03:37:45 PM by Simfan34 »

A bomb at the Erawan Shrine? Goodness, that's huge. It's one of the most popular shrines in the city. I can't think of who would do such a thing; if it were Muslim insurgents (who are not terribly organised in the first place) it would be represent a massive escalation of the conflict. The spiritual/psychological effect is likely to be large as well, Thais generally take these sorts of things seriously (most Thais will have a "spirit house" in/outside their homes, a sort of lodge for the "household spirits").

It was actually attacked already once by a crazed man in 2006, but there were no fatalities, Sondhi tried to claim it was the EVIL HAND OF THAKSIN at work but he was obviously being ridiculous.

Here's a picture:



The statue, oddly enough, is one of Shiva.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2015, 03:33:28 PM »

So what exactly is Prayut Chan-o-cha doing? I went on an LDS mission (not in Thailand obviously) shortly before the coup, so I'm a little out of the loop. I know he's taken power and done what generals taking power generally do, but what exactly has he been doing while in power?

I actually wrote a paper on the politics of the Thai middle classes last semester for a class, so I'll simply paste what I wrote on the latest coup:

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In office, Prayuth has mainly been doing usual junta stuff: arresting critics, banning protests, passing strict internal security laws, writing a new constitution, and repeatedly delaying elections.

He's done some new things as well: purging the police (since Thaksin came from the police, he had many supporters there), dramatically ratcheting up lese-majesty prosecutions on increasingly tangential grounds, pursuing closer relations with China, indulging the Royal Thai Navy's decades-old wish for submarines, and working to hamper political activities of all sorts, and not just Thaksin-ite politics. Judging from his rhetoric and the draft constitution, it seems he is contemptuous of partisan politics in general (corrupt and inefficient, as is said), as people like Abhisit have found, to their dismay.
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Knives
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2015, 06:45:33 PM »

Hopefully he purges the Thai middle class who sound like the scum of the earth.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2015, 09:13:53 PM »

After deadly Bangkok bomb blast, questions arise about culprits, motives

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Nathan
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« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2015, 09:27:07 PM »

I'm surprised the Prayuth people are the pro-China ones.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2015, 09:59:47 PM »

I'm surprised the Prayuth people are the pro-China ones.

The US has proven largely unwilling to work with the junta.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2015, 10:40:26 PM »


Option 4: The junta themselves, to scapegoat it on someone else of their convinence.
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politicus
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2015, 01:11:26 AM »

I'm surprised the Prayuth people are the pro-China ones.

The US has proven largely unwilling to work with the junta.

China is today all authoritarian's great friend and protector.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2015, 01:13:55 AM »

The junta has tried to appear even handed by cracking down on both Thaksin supporters and anti-Thaksin supporters.

Really though, rank and file anti-Thaksin people support the junta completely and don't really care what happens to their former protest leaders, they were never personally that popular, they were just a front for anti-Thaksin feelings.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2015, 12:51:11 PM »

A Turkish national was arrested by police yesterday in connection to the bombing, was found with 10 fake passports and bomb making material. Not suspected to be the actual bomber, though.

Turkish involvement would suggest a connection to the deportation of Uyghur refugees to China two months ago. If you recall there were riots in Turkey over that incident, and the Thai embassy was attacked. It would also provide an answer to the question of who in Thailand would bomb a Buddhist shrine (answer: someone who was neither Thai nor Buddhist).
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Nhoj
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2015, 03:01:38 PM »

A Turkish national was arrested by police yesterday in connection to the bombing, was found with 10 fake passports and bomb making material. Not suspected to be the actual bomber, though.

Turkish involvement would suggest a connection to the deportation of Uyghur refugees to China two months ago. If you recall there were riots in Turkey over that incident, and the Thai embassy was attacked. It would also provide an answer to the question of who in Thailand would bomb a Buddhist shrine (answer: someone who was neither Thai nor Buddhist).
The turkish passport found is a very fake one, so its not clear what nationality he is.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2015, 08:09:01 AM »

Constitutional draft thrown out and elections officially delayed until... God knows when.

Thailand constitution: Military's council rejects draft - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-34149523
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Simfan34
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2015, 07:31:52 PM »

I suspect this was what they wanted to happen.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2015, 03:32:39 PM »

Nation senior reporter taken in for "attitude adjustment"

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Nation-demands-immediate-release-of-reporter-30268751.html

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/thai-junta-detains-journalist-pravit-rojanaphruk
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Simfan34
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2016, 05:50:17 PM »

So how about that election... (no one's really talking about that now, but the few who are are saying late 2018 or early 2019.)
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