Morning Consult: Clinton +7, Clinton +6 (4-way)

[dspNY]

A decent bounce for Clinton after the debate.

The two way numbers are Clinton 46, Trump 39
The four way numbers are Clinton 42, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 3

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/MCTrend10.2-1.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

lol, RIP Tender Branson. His beloved Trump is crashing and burning now!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Nice...I believe it was +2 for clinton the last time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nice...I believe it was +2 for clinton the last time.

Nope +3 in the four way and +4 in the two-way.

The interesting element in this poll is that Clinton's net favourables improved from -16 to -10 and Trump moved from -18 to -20.

[Gass3268]

Great honor!

[Tender Branson]

lol, RIP Tender Branson. His beloved Trump is crashing and burning now!

Trump is not my beloved anything ...

I just don't like either candidate.

[mark_twain]

The 1st post-debate poll from this organization gave Clinton a +3 lead. I believe the additional gain in the polls was due to the post-debate antics of Trump.

We may be heading towards a consolidation of Clinton's lead in the coming weeks. The word "bounce" may not be the best word to describe this effect in the polls. Perhaps "elevation" may be a better term for it.

[Tender Branson]

It's not yet clear exactly what's going on right now, with some national polls showing Hillary gaining, but some state polls showing a race that is closer than 2012 ...

[HillOfANight]

It's not yet clear exactly what's going on right now, with some national polls showing Hillary gaining, but some state polls showing a race that is closer than 2012 ...

Which ones? The junky university ones?

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/782900135953063936
Post-debate polls have Clinton up by 6 points in Nevada, 4 in Florida, by 7 in Michigan and by 7 in New Hampshire.

There has been a swing this cycle, non college whites to Trump, and college whites and Latinos to Clinton, with the latter being better overall for her.
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/763388162832003073

[Gustaf]

Tender has been concern trolling for Trump for quite a while. It's pretty clear we have a post-debate swing towards Clinton.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tender has been concern trolling for Trump for quite a while. It's pretty clear we have a post-debate swing towards Clinton.

And outside of those sh**te outliers, the state polls are starting to line up.

[Gustaf]

Tender has been concern trolling for Trump for quite a while. It's pretty clear we have a post-debate swing towards Clinton.

And outside of those sh**te outliers, the state polls are starting to line up.

Most state polls of last week were consistent with Clinton +4/+5. We will see soon whether we're looking at an even larger lead than that.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 81%
Trump 9%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

GOP
Trump 77%
Clinton 7%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 30%
Clinton 25%
Johnson 19%
Stein 7%

whites: Trump +4
Hispanics: Clinton +23
blacks: Clinton +68
urban: Clinton +34
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +23
Midwest: Clinton +8
Northeast: Clinton +13
South: tie
West: Clinton +8

fav/unfav %:
Pence 35/32% for +3%
Kaine 30/30% for +/-0
Clinton 44/54% for -10%
Johnson 22/34% for -12%
Trump 39/59% for -20%

So I guess we’re now up to more than 50% of voters having an opinion of Johnson.  But he’s still more unknown than Kaine and Pence.

[ApatheticAustrian]

as an european i am at the moment highly poll-critical (add colombia to the list of anti-poll-results) but i guess a swing is a good thing anyway as long as over-confident voters don't stay at home.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tender showed his true colors with that ridiculous "tied" Nevada poll.

[ApatheticAustrian]

does anyone here really think sanders would do better?

he would have killed it with the millenials but he seemed to have problems with the black vote.....and is there any indicator he would have produced more latino energizing?

besides the fact that i am not sure, a trump-sanders fight would have split the blue-collar workers.

[mark_twain]

The 1st post-debate poll from this organization gave Clinton a +3 lead. I believe the additional gain in the polls was due to the post-debate antics of Trump.

We may be heading towards a consolidation of Clinton's lead in the coming weeks. The word "bounce" may not be the best word to describe this effect in the polls. Perhaps "elevation" may be a better term for it.

After seeing the other poll results today, I think the word "elevation" is now closer to reality.

[Rand]

Sweet numbers. Tax Evader McPorn Star is already criticizing the polls this morning after weeks of praising them when he was beating Hillary. So transparent.

[mark_twain]

It's not yet clear exactly what's going on right now, with some national polls showing Hillary gaining, but some state polls showing a race that is closer than 2012 ...

I agree on one thing, that it would be better to have more state polls.

But I'm afraid that after seeing those results, you may be disappointed.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sweet numbers. Tax Evader McPorn Star is already criticizing the polls this morning after weeks of praising them when he was beating Hillary. So transparent.

Stealing this...

[ProudModerate2]

Excellent movement post-debate.
And these numbers don't yet take the full effect of trump's tax dodging into consideration, so additional increase to a Clinton lead could be coming .... to be continued.

[Virginiá]

Democrats +9 points ahead in their Generic Congressional ballot question. Winning the House PV by 9 points is larger than 2006's margin. Their last poll on this was D+8 on Sept 26-27, and D+3 before that.

D+8-9 is quite a stretch but one consistent thing in this poll question is that Democrats have often led by an average of 3 - 5 points ever since Trump entered the campaign.