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Author Topic: Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO  (Read 4268 times)
Beef
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« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2016, 02:09:36 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2016, 02:29:24 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2016, 02:35:04 pm »

Given that the Clinton campaign is only spending significant amounts of advertising money in seven states-- FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA-- one of those seven will almost certainly be the tipping point state.

So PA is my first guess for tipping point state, followed by NH.
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Beef
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« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2016, 02:43:21 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)

Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988.  It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.

Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2016, 03:03:56 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)

Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988.  It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.

Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.

I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp.  Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating?  I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there. 
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Beef
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« Reply #55 on: October 03, 2016, 03:33:00 pm »


I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp.  Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating?  I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there. 

Wisconsin Republicans really don't like Trump, and Wisconsin Democrats like Hillary well enough.

Also, WCWs in Wisconsin (and Minnesota) have stuck with the Democratic Party when they abandoned it elsewhere.  This is why WI was among the Dukakis Five.  Wisconsin has been a focal point for right-wing union busting, and labor Democrats still have a lot of solidarity as a result.

If someone like Mike Pence were heading the ticket, however, WI would stand a good chance of flipping.
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SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT
Antonio V
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« Reply #56 on: October 03, 2016, 05:31:14 pm »

Good. This is the kind of results we need.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

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« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2016, 05:33:37 pm »

This is the first batch of polls I've seen marked upward for Clinton and not downward in quite a while. That debate performance really is shaking up the model in a very satisfying way.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #58 on: November 20, 2016, 11:03:25 am »

Trump supporters shouldn't fool themselves, this election is over. The only question right now is how badly does he lose? (Quite frankly, I think even TX might be in danger for Republicans at this point)

Trump supporters shouldn't fool themselves, this election is over. The only question right now is how badly does he lose? (Quite frankly, I think even TX might be in danger for Republicans at this point)

I can never tell if your serious.

I am. It's pretty clear that he doesn't want to win and Republicans should dump him and focus on winnable Senate races.

Oh yeah....
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RFayette
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« Reply #59 on: November 20, 2016, 12:55:33 pm »

Trump supporters shouldn't fool themselves, this election is over. The only question right now is how badly does he lose? (Quite frankly, I think even TX might be in danger for Republicans at this point)

Trump supporters shouldn't fool themselves, this election is over. The only question right now is how badly does he lose? (Quite frankly, I think even TX might be in danger for Republicans at this point)

I can never tell if your serious.

I am. It's pretty clear that he doesn't want to win and Republicans should dump him and focus on winnable Senate races.

Oh yeah....

Better than mine, directly after the Access Hollywood tapes. Tongue

I have a gut feeling that Clinton is going to win Wisconsin by around 5 and Feingold will win by around 6-7.

Lol, Clinton is going to win Wisconsin by at least 15.  Trump's going to probably lose this election by 20 points nationally.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #60 on: November 21, 2016, 01:58:12 am »

^ Well, you were both correct in explaining what should have happened.

And to be frank, it's why I get a bit pissed off at the Monday morning quarterbacking. It was always reasonable to assume she was far ahead. It's what the data showed and what common sense dictated, at least up until Comey's October Surprise when things got hazy. So given all this, I don't think you can really blame them for not seeing the need to shake up their strategy. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but... you don't have hindsight when you're in the thick of it, and most "evidence" suggested her strategy was getting the job done. Her enthusiasm registered as on par with Trump's, she was winning everywhere she needed and then some, and the senate definitely looked like it would flip.

It wasn't the case. Were she and her team expected to be magical?
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colourful milieux
dax00
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« Reply #61 on: November 27, 2016, 12:39:47 am »

^ Well, you were both correct in explaining what should have happened.

[...]Her enthusiasm registered as on par with Trump's, she was winning everywhere she needed and then some, and the senate definitely looked like it would flip.

It wasn't the case. Were she and her team expected to be magical?
wrong
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purple doesn't exist
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