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  Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO
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Author Topic: Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO  (Read 6251 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2016, 12:22:31 pm »

Die Freiwal Leben!

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ReapSow
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« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2016, 12:24:06 pm »

Fantastic poll!  Tax Dodger McPorn Star knows he's doomed, so he's going all out like John Spencer in the 2006 New York Senate race.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2016, 12:24:40 pm »

This election has been a disaster from start to finish with a few periods that seemed to give me false hope (notably Iowa and "Hillary's Bad Week".  It seems like Trump might not recover from that debate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2016, 12:24:58 pm »


As a German-speaker I need to correct you: "Die Firewall lebt !"
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Jacobin American
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« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2016, 12:25:27 pm »

As I've been arguing on this forum, watch for the enormous education gap come election day. Any state with a highly educated and/or high minority population will show a very strong performance for Clinton. Colorado is one of the most educated states in the nation, up there with Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont (among others). Trump can kiss this state goodbye. Watch for new polls showing a strong Clinton performance in North Carolina and Georgia as well. Trump has even further alienated the White, College educated population and the defections will be serious.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2016, 12:27:02 pm »

As I've been arguing on this forum, watch for the enormous education gap come election day. Any state with a highly educated and/or high minority population will show a very strong performance for Clinton. Colorado is one of the most educated states in the nation, up there with Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont (among others). Trump can kiss this state goodbye. Watch for new polls showing a strong Clinton performance in North Carolina and Georgia as well. Trump has even further alienated the White, College educated population and the defections will be serious.

There will also be a massive urban/rural divide, much like we saw it in the Austrian Presidential runoff ...
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2016, 12:27:11 pm »

Dont worry Trumpkins.. the joint Dave Matthews and Tim Kaine appearance next week should get this within single digits.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2016, 12:29:08 pm »

6 weeks out and he's down by double digits. That's pretty damning.

What do we think CO's PVI is this year? This implies a mid-to-high single digit lead for Clinton nationally no? As in, more than the 4-5% we saw right after the debate.

It's actually 5 weeks now.

2 weeks until ballots are mailed out to every registered voter in the state.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2016, 12:29:55 pm »

In fact, Colorado is the tipping point state according to 538's all 3 models. Not  that I buy that.

Colorado was the tipping-point state in 2012.
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Jacobin American
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« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2016, 12:38:04 pm »

As I've been arguing on this forum, watch for the enormous education gap come election day. Any state with a highly educated and/or high minority population will show a very strong performance for Clinton. Colorado is one of the most educated states in the nation, up there with Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont (among others). Trump can kiss this state goodbye. Watch for new polls showing a strong Clinton performance in North Carolina and Georgia as well. Trump has even further alienated the White, College educated population and the defections will be serious.

There will also be a massive urban/rural divide, much like we saw it in the Austrian Presidential runoff ...

While that's true, it's also problematic to phrase it in those terms. Undeniably the overwhelming majority of rural areas across America have a very White, uneducated population. However, there are rural areas with high numbers of minorities (Hispanics in Texas and New Mexico, African Americans in the Southeast) and even some with high numbers of college educated Whites (Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, parts of Upstate New York). So in those rural areas, it will be Democratic. Conversely, we could see blue collar urban areas swinging hard for Trump, such as Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Green Bay, and Grand Rapids. Characterizing it as an urban/rural divide simply isn't accurate as it portrays the conflict as one of urbanity, rather than more accurately as one of educational attainment and minority population.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2016, 12:38:46 pm »

In fact, Colorado is the tipping point state according to 538's all 3 models. Not  that I buy that.

Colorado was the tipping-point state in 2012.

I'm betting PA trends at least 0.02% more towards the Republicans than Colorado does this election cycle compared to 2012. Do you disagree? Tongue
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #36 on: October 03, 2016, 12:41:11 pm »

is monmouth any good in CO?

if yes, one more of those from NM or MI/PA and i am going to feel much better.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #37 on: October 03, 2016, 12:46:20 pm »

Trump supporters shouldn't fool themselves, this election is over. The only question right now is how badly does he lose? (Quite frankly, I think even TX might be in danger for Republicans at this point)

No chance they lose Texas.

If there is an Akin effect, it could definitely happen. It would be a one-time thing, though.

I doubt we see an Akin effect even with how terrible Trump is.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2016, 12:48:04 pm »

YOWZA!!!  Great poll!

Confirmed GOP mole Nate Silver gonna be all like...

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Dopey fraud Nate Silver will probably find some way to unskew this down to Clinton +5 or 6 though.

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

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HEELED.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2016, 12:50:51 pm »

The last poll was taken from 7/9 to 7/12, with a result of Clinton +13.

Now the result is Clinton +11.

After all the drama that happened since then, this state is basically back to square one and can be classified as "Safe D".

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2016, 12:51:39 pm »

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

There's nothing wrong with jumping out of bed at 6AM to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios !

BIGOT.

99.9% of posters here do it.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2016, 01:10:12 pm »

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

There's nothing wrong with jumping out of bed at 6AM to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios !

BIGOT.

99.9% of posters here do it.

Why are you feeling the need to defend Mr. Silver's deteriorating mental state? 

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Seriously?
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« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2016, 01:18:51 pm »

Not surprising since it's from Monmouth. They had Clinton +13 in July, so Trump somehow improved....

Clinton 49% (+1)
Trump 38% (+3)
Johnson 7% (+2)
Stein 3% (--)
Other 0% (-3)
Undecided 3% (-4)

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2016, 01:26:19 pm »

Not surprising since it's from Monmouth. They had Clinton +13 in July, so Trump somehow improved....

Clinton 49% (+1)
Trump 38% (+3)
Johnson 7% (+2)
Stein 3% (--)
Other 0% (-3)
Undecided 3% (-4)



At the time, that Monmouth poll was considered a bit of an outlier (in fact, I think it's the best CO result she's ever had).  There really aren't enough data points to say; we need more CO polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2016, 01:27:00 pm »

Not surprising since it's from Monmouth. They had Clinton +13 in July, so Trump somehow improved....

Clinton 49% (+1)
Trump 38% (+3)
Johnson 7% (+2)
Stein 3% (--)
Other 0% (-3)
Undecided 3% (-4)



At the time, that Monmouth poll was considered a bit of an outlier (in fact, I think it's the best CO result she's ever had).  There really aren't enough data points to say; we need more CO polls.

We have a second poll now with Clinton +11 from Keating
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Beef
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« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2016, 01:29:32 pm »

Now Atlas is leaping from "OMG Hillary is in trouble!" to "LOL Trump doesn't want to win, he was doomed from the start" on the basis of one state poll?

EDIT:


We have a second poll now with Clinton +11 from Keating

Now we're getting somewhere.
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Beef
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« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2016, 01:39:30 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2016, 01:44:31 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%
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adrac
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« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2016, 01:50:54 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.
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Beef
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« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2016, 02:09:36 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.
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