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November 17, 2019, 03:11:23 am
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO  (Read 6264 times)
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
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« on: October 03, 2016, 12:11:20 pm »

YOWZA!!!  Great poll!

Confirmed GOP mole Nate Silver gonna be all like...

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HokeyDood
HockeyDude
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Posts: 10,725
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 12:48:04 pm »

YOWZA!!!  Great poll!

Confirmed GOP mole Nate Silver gonna be all like...

Image Link

Dopey fraud Nate Silver will probably find some way to unskew this down to Clinton +5 or 6 though.

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

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HEELED.
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HokeyDood
HockeyDude
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Posts: 10,725
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 01:10:12 pm »

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

There's nothing wrong with jumping out of bed at 6AM to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios !

BIGOT.

99.9% of posters here do it.

Why are you feeling the need to defend Mr. Silver's deteriorating mental state? 

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HokeyDood
HockeyDude
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Posts: 10,725
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 03:03:56 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)

Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988.  It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.

Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.

I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp.  Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating?  I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there. 
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