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Author Topic: Monmouth: Clinton +11 in CO  (Read 5335 times)
WI is Safe D
Beef
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« on: October 03, 2016, 01:29:32 pm »

Now Atlas is leaping from "OMG Hillary is in trouble!" to "LOL Trump doesn't want to win, he was doomed from the start" on the basis of one state poll?

EDIT:


We have a second poll now with Clinton +11 from Keating

Now we're getting somewhere.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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Posts: 5,839
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 01:39:30 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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Posts: 5,839
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 02:09:36 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
YaBB God
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Posts: 5,839
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 02:43:21 pm »

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)

Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988.  It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.

Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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Posts: 5,839
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 03:33:00 pm »


I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp.  Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating?  I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there. 

Wisconsin Republicans really don't like Trump, and Wisconsin Democrats like Hillary well enough.

Also, WCWs in Wisconsin (and Minnesota) have stuck with the Democratic Party when they abandoned it elsewhere.  This is why WI was among the Dukakis Five.  Wisconsin has been a focal point for right-wing union busting, and labor Democrats still have a lot of solidarity as a result.

If someone like Mike Pence were heading the ticket, however, WI would stand a good chance of flipping.
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