Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW. Trump's chances in CO before and after:
Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%
Still doesn't have the Keating poll. He rates them a B, with no bias either way.
Now with Keating included:
Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%
Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.
I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.
What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)