FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio +7

[MT Treasurer]

47% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
40% Patrick Murphy (D)
5% Paul Stanton (L)

http://mason-dixon.com/News/FL-9-16-Poll-Part2.pdf

Same poll has Clinton up 4 in Florida. Hispanics favor Rubio over Murphy 53%-38%, while Clinton wins them 64%-29% over Trump. Looks like this one's over, folks.

[Fargobison]

Stick a fork in Patrick "Silver Spoon" Murphy, he's done.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It is really amazing how much of a swing vote FL Hispanics are.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Florida remains one of the worst States.

[Xing]

The idea that such a large number of people would reject Trump, while supporting an empty suit who would be a rubber stamp for Trump, is sad.

[Heisenberg]

It is really amazing how much of a swing vote FL Hispanics are.

While I doubt that either Clinton or Murphy are particularly exciting to them, the key to the gap is who the Republican candidates are: It seems that Rubio is basically the best possible candidate for them, Trump the worst possible.

[Figueira]

Stick a fork in Patrick "Silver Spoon" Murphy, he's done.

Rubio is definitely favored (I have this as Lean R), but we definitely can't "stick a fork in" anyone quite yet. Hagan was up by 7 in some polls in late September 2014.

[Figueira]

It is really amazing how much of a swing vote FL Hispanics are.

While I doubt that either Clinton or Murphy are particularly exciting to them, the key to the gap is who the Republican candidates are: It seems that Rubio is basically the best possible candidate for them, Trump the worst possible.

I don't think Rubio is the best possible candidate for them, but I suppose in terms of his personality and some aspects of his foreign policy, he's a good fit for the state.

[Heisenberg]

It is really amazing how much of a swing vote FL Hispanics are.

While I doubt that either Clinton or Murphy are particularly exciting to them, the key to the gap is who the Republican candidates are: It seems that Rubio is basically the best possible candidate for them, Trump the worst possible.

I don't think Rubio is the best possible candidate for them, but I suppose in terms of his personality and some aspects of his foreign policy, he's a good fit for the state.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen or Mario Diaz-Balart would be better possible candidates (for Florida Hispanics as a whole), but Rubio is a really good fit for Florida's Hispanic community, WAY better than Trump, obviously.

[Vosem]

Stick a fork in Patrick "Silver Spoon" Murphy, he's done.

Rubio is definitely favored (I have this as Lean R), but we definitely can't "stick a fork in" anyone quite yet. Hagan was up by 7 in some polls in late September 2014.

I mean, this is true, but it's October at this point. Hagan never led any October poll by more than 4, and that was a junky Elon; besides that, every poll had her at 3 or less. Republican-associated polling generally also had Tillis up through most of the campaign (Vox Populi had him up 5 in mid-October, for instance), as did the occasional rogue legitimate poll, while Murphy hasn't led in any poll, internal or otherwise, since August. Losing in your own internals is never a good sign.

If you wanna look for Democratic equivalents to Thom Tillis this year, you can look at Deborah Ross, Jason Kander, or Caroline Fayard. Murphy is done unless one of the Rubio scandals Maxwell's been hyping for the past year turns out to exist (extremely doubtful).

[Figueira]

Stick a fork in Patrick "Silver Spoon" Murphy, he's done.

Rubio is definitely favored (I have this as Lean R), but we definitely can't "stick a fork in" anyone quite yet. Hagan was up by 7 in some polls in late September 2014.

I mean, this is true, but it's October at this point. Hagan never led any October poll by more than 4, and that was a junky Elon; besides that, every poll had her at 3 or less. Republican-associated polling generally also had Tillis up through most of the campaign (Vox Populi had him up 5 in mid-October, for instance), as did the occasional rogue legitimate poll, while Murphy hasn't led in any poll, internal or otherwise, since August. Losing in your own internals is never a good sign.

If you wanna look for Democratic equivalents to Thom Tillis this year, you can look at Deborah Ross, Jason Kander, or Caroline Fayard. Murphy is done unless one of the Rubio scandals Maxwell's been hyping for the past year turns out to exist (extremely doubtful).

The poll we're discussing here is from late September.

Anyway, you're mostly right, but my point is that it's close enough that it would be wrong to discount Murphy entirely, especially with the presidential race being as volatile as it is.

I would say the same thing about the IL race.

[DavidB.]

Encouraging, but Murphy still got this. Trump will implode and drag down Rubio with him; Rubio will overperform him, but not by enough.

[jamestroll]

It looks like ticket splitting will be more common this year then in 2012..

Hey, perception matters. Floridians perceive Rubio to be very different from Trump. Whether that is actually true or not, does not matter.

I know that to a lot of people, splitting tickets makes little sense. However, we just have two major viable parties, so it will happen from time to time. And lets be honest, if your party's candidate in a local, house, senate, or state race can win in an area that generally voters against your party, you are happy/