Stick a fork in Patrick "Silver Spoon" Murphy, he's done.
Rubio is definitely favored (I have this as Lean R), but we definitely can't "stick a fork in" anyone quite yet. Hagan was up by 7 in some polls in late September 2014.
I mean, this is true, but it's October at this point. Hagan never led any October poll by more than 4, and that was a junky Elon; besides that, every poll had her at 3 or less. Republican-associated polling generally also had Tillis up through most of the campaign (Vox Populi had him up 5 in mid-October, for instance), as did the occasional rogue legitimate poll, while Murphy hasn't led in any poll, internal or otherwise, since August. Losing in your own internals is never a good sign.
If you wanna look for Democratic equivalents to Thom Tillis this year, you can look at Deborah Ross, Jason Kander, or Caroline Fayard. Murphy is done unless one of the Rubio scandals Maxwell's been hyping for the past year turns out to exist (extremely doubtful).
The poll we're discussing here is from late September.
Anyway, you're mostly right, but my point is that it's close enough that it would be wrong to discount Murphy entirely, especially with the presidential race being as volatile as it is.
I would say the same thing about the IL race.
