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Author Topic: Keating Research: Clinton +11 in CO  (Read 2013 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: October 03, 2016, 01:16:48 pm »

Harry Enten just tweeted about another CO poll that shows same margin as Monmouth:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/783004625263820801

https://twitter.com/JoeStGeorge/status/783003698460971008

Clinton - 44
Trump - 33
Johnson - 10
Stein - 3

602 LVs polled 9/27-9/29
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 01:17:11 pm »

Sweet sassy mollassy...
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 01:17:31 pm »

CO is definitely gone.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 01:18:46 pm »

Looks like Colorado really is New New Mexico.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 01:26:07 pm »

Looks like Colorado really is New New Mexico.

Not really, CO would have been perfectly winnable with just about any other Republican candidate.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2016, 01:41:16 pm »

Looks like Colorado really is New New Mexico.

Not really, CO would have been perfectly winnable with just about any other Republican candidate.

If Hillary's winning by this margin, I tend to doubt that another Republican would have an easy time here.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2016, 01:47:59 pm »

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Beef
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2016, 01:54:52 pm »

Looks like Colorado really is New New Mexico.

Not really, CO would have been perfectly winnable with just about any other Republican candidate.

I honestly have no clue why Trump had been polling within 5% of Hillary in the first place.  Everything about that state looks like a disaster for him.  The GOP base consists of:
1. Educated, wealthy elites.
2. The religious right.
3. The military establishment.

All I can think is that Hillary Clinton's unpopularity with both the right and the left (which is basically a transplanted Cascadia) drove voters towards either considering staying home, voting Johnson, or holding their nose and voting Trump.

The right-wing intelligentsia (pro-establishment, pro-globalism, neo-con) has to be the weakest part of the Republican coalition for Trump.

It looks like the state is finally drifting back to what I would expect from them given the fundamentals.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2016, 02:11:49 pm »

Wowza !
Excellent number. Very nice lead in Colorado.
8-)
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mark_twain
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2016, 02:15:43 pm »

Great poll!
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2016, 02:19:01 pm »

Sweet sassy mollassy...

WELL SAID!!!

Great poll!  Monmouth confirmed!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2016, 02:20:50 pm »

Magnificent poll!
Trump is as bad a fit for Colorado as Jennifer Lopez was for Ben Affleck.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2016, 02:47:59 pm »

Yeah, that CNN poll with Trump leading by 1 was a total joke.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 02:57:23 pm »

Yeah, that CNN poll with Trump leading by 1 was a total joke.

Nah, because polls always reflect voter sentiment at a given time.

It could have been the Hillary pneumonia and the deplorables thing. Or ad spending by Trump, which pushed him to a tie a few weeks ago.

That doesn't mean the poll was wrong at that given time. Other polls showed a close race too.

But the debate brought back the educated voters into the Clinton camp it seems.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 03:05:51 pm »

Yeah, that CNN poll with Trump leading by 1 was a total joke.

Nah, because polls always reflect voter sentiment at a given time.

It could have been the Hillary pneumonia and the deplorables thing. Or ad spending by Trump, which pushed him to a tie a few weeks ago.

That doesn't mean the poll was wrong at that given time. Other polls showed a close race too.

But the debate brought back the educated voters into the Clinton camp it seems.

The deplorables thing did absolutely nothing so let's dispel with that fiction. Is it realistic to say she was sliding at the time? Yes. But I don't buy the idea that voters are actually that elastic. Hillary's campaign internals suggested CO was still in the blue wall, while that CNN poll was maybe 6-8 points too Trump-friendly. That's kind of ridiculous.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2016, 03:16:42 pm »

Buhhhh I was told Trump had CO in the bag!
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2016, 01:27:31 pm »

Magnificent poll!
Trump is as bad a fit for Colorado as Jennifer Lopez was for Ben Affleck.
I don't know who Keating Research is, but I know that I like them!
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