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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH  (Read 3114 times)
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realisticidealist
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« on: October 03, 2016, 01:30:56 pm »

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7
OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 01:31:16 pm »

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7

OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6, Stein 1

PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384

EDIT: feel free to delete since poll already posted
« Last Edit: October 03, 2016, 01:36:45 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 01:32:51 pm »

Christ, Ohio might really be lost for Hillary.

I'm overall happy with these numbers, though.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 01:33:17 pm »

Oh wow, time to flip NC blue on 538's polls plus Smiley
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Mike88
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 01:33:18 pm »

New Quinnipiac polls:

Florida

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 5%

North Carolina

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 43%
Johnson: 7%

PA

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 5%

Ohio

Trump: 47%
Clinton: 42%
Johnson: 6%

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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2016, 01:33:35 pm »

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7
OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384

Not great but that still equals a President Clinton
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Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2016, 01:34:13 pm »

OH, what are you doing!? Things are looking extremely dire for Trump especially in FL and NC. PA is Likely D, as expected.
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2016, 01:34:54 pm »

lol okay

Ohio becoming the new Missourah.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2016, 01:35:25 pm »

Head to head:

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 44
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 43
OH: Trump 49, Clinton 46
NC: Clinton 49, Trump 46
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2016, 01:35:50 pm »

Question is if +4 is enough of a margin for Clinton to drag in McGinty.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2016, 01:36:20 pm »

I will GLADLY trade Ohio and Florida. These numbers aren't "great" but they aren't bad by any stretch.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2016, 01:38:21 pm »

"From September 27 - October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

545 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points;
507 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
497 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
535 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points."
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2016, 01:39:23 pm »

What are you doing Ohio?
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Mike88
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 01:40:15 pm »

Weird to see FL and NC more blue than PA and even OH.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 01:42:30 pm »

I expect Johnson and Stein's share to get cut in half again. OH will be really close come Nov
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dspNY
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2016, 01:43:12 pm »

Florida Party ID: 33D/30R/32I
Florida Demographics: 63W/15B/16H/6 other

Pennsylvania Party ID: 38D/31R/27I
Pennsylvania Demographics: 77W/12B/5H/7 other

Ohio Party ID: 33D/31R/30I
Ohio Demographics: 84W/11B/1H/3 other

North Carolina Party ID: 33D/28R/33I
North Carolina Party ID: 65W/21B/5H/9 other

All these numbers look OK except for Ohio's demographics. The electorate in Ohio will be 79-80% white, not 84% white
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2016, 01:44:14 pm »

Maybe everyone has been too hard on Strickland for not being able to win an impossible race.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2016, 01:49:47 pm »

In the 4-way…Trump gets between 84 and 89% of Republicans in these four polls, while Clinton’s share of the Dem vote varies all the way between 81% and 92%.

Ohio gender gap is 39 points:

men:
Trump 58%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

women:
Clinton 51%
Trump 39%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Consistent with other polls we’ve seen of Southern states, Clinton’s share of the white non-college vote in North Carolina is pretty dismal (19%), whereas she manages 34% of non-college whites in Ohio, despite the fact that overall she’s winning the former and losing the latter.  Of course, part of it is that Trump is winning whites with a college degree by double digits in the Ohio poll, and only leads them by 1 in NC.
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2016, 01:51:24 pm »

Clinton has work to do in Ohio, but the other numbers are very, very good.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2016, 01:53:55 pm »

Ohio is disappointing, but if that is the price we have to pay for FL and NC then so bit.
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2016, 01:56:57 pm »

I have a hard time believing that PA is to the right of FL, and that OH is that much more Republican than the other swing states, but I'll take Hillary winning two out of the three must-win states for Trump.
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2016, 02:00:54 pm »

Acceptable & Happy.
8-)
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dspNY
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2016, 02:01:09 pm »

I believe every post-debate poll of FL and NC has shown Clinton ahead
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2016, 02:03:27 pm »

This is pre-LeBron endorsement ftr
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2016, 02:03:52 pm »

Johnson and Stein's vote share has collapsed from 14 to 7%. Just like everyone expected.
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