NV-Hart/WSJ: Clinton +3

[heatcharger]

Link.

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%

[Doimper]

Between the fact that Nevada's been trending R and that polls generally understate Democratic support, I'll gladly take this one.

[dspNY]

Nevada goes back to Lean D. The last poll out of here from WSJ had Trump up a point. The last 3 polls out of NV show a Clinton lead

[Xing]

Hillary's back to Obama's 2012 polling numbers in NV. Not bad.

[Lief 🗽]

Nevada seems to have been the epicenter of Clinton's post-debate surge, for some reason.

[Ozymandias]

Trump Favorables:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  16m16 minutes ago

NBC/WSJ:

6/15: Trump is 26/56
9/16: Trump is 28/61

“He hasn't moved anybody.” -- Peter Hart

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/783126954820050944

EDIT: I think Hart is referring to National NBC/WSJ polls here.

[Ozymandias]

Senate race:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  11m11 minutes ago

Hart poll shows @RepJoeHeck up by 1, 47-46. #WeMatter

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/783128701127065600

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is an improvement....especially since NV polling is bad.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is an improvement....especially since NV polling is bad.

Are you Tender's brother?

improvement for clinton i meant ofc...

and not such a bern-feeler myself.

[mark_twain]

Let's keep it up, D...I mean H!

[Likely Voter]

The last NBC/WSJ poll of NV in early Sept. was Trump+1 (3-way). But that was done by Marist

[Ozymandias]

The last NBC/WSJ poll of NV in early Sept. was Trump+1 (3-way). But that was done by Marist

Good point-- looking at 538's database, I think Hart was referring to Trump favorability ratings in National NBC/WSJ polls.

[Rand]

The surge in Latino voter registration and potential turnout is understated. Hillary will outperform the polls in this and many other states as a result of this.

[ProudModerate2]

Not bad .... not bad at all.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Clearly undersampled college grads from New Mexico. If you unskew, it looks more like:

JOHNSON 78% Clinton 14% donald 1%

[Seriously?]

FYI this is 700 RV on this poll. I don't see a pollster date range in this blog, although they say it began the day after the debates, which would be 9/27, and concluded over the weekend, so it's likely 9/27-10/1 or 9/27-10/2. Not even sure if this is just Hart Associates or Hart/WSJ/NBC at the end of the day.

I managed to get around the paywall with a Google search, for whomever doesn't want to get stuck with a paywall.

[Ozymandias]

I managed to get around the paywall with a Google search, for whomever doesn't want to get stuck with a paywall.

Thanks for the tip!

Here's what the article said about actual NV favorables:

"47% viewed Donald Trump strongly unfavorably, vs. 22% with a strongly favorable impression.

 45% viewed Hillary Clinton strongly unfavorably, vs. 28% with a strongly favorable impression."

[HillOfANight]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/new-poll-nevada-races-for-president-senate-remain-close
https://www.scribd.com/document/326366513/TOPLINE-Nevada-Poll-September-2016-n-700-final-wtd?content=10079&ad_group=Online+Tracking+Link&campaign=Skimbit%2C+Ltd.&keyword=ft500noi&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate&irgwc=1 (crosstabs)

(The survey has 18 percent Hispanic voters, which would match the 2012 result.)

[Seriously?]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/new-poll-nevada-races-for-president-senate-remain-close
https://www.scribd.com/document/326366513/TOPLINE-Nevada-Poll-September-2016-n-700-final-wtd?content=10079&ad_group=Online+Tracking+Link&campaign=Skimbit%2C+Ltd.&keyword=ft500noi&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate&irgwc=1 (crosstabs)

(The survey has 18 percent Hispanic voters, which would match the 2012 result.)

Great find. I hate when they break out Hispanic separately.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Scribd is a terrible site. I wish that people would just use PDFs. Are there regional breakdowns?

[Seriously?]

Scribd is a terrible site. I wish that people would just use PDFs. Are there regional breakdowns?

yes, 60% vegas; 20% reno; 19% rural NV

[NOVA Green]

The trend in NV has been very favorable towards Clinton over the past week.

Also, this poll was conducted pre "Taxgate" with a B+ rating.

Angry SoCal retired women starting to come home to Clinton?