Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 21, 2018, 12:23:55 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
| | |-+  Poland General Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 Print
Author Topic: Poland General Discussion  (Read 11519 times)
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,925
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: September 21, 2017, 03:28:20 pm »

what does the German Minority MP do in the Sejm?
Logged

Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: September 21, 2017, 03:33:13 pm »

what does the German Minority MP do in the Sejm?


Represents German minority? Recognized by law minorities had no electoral threshold so thanks to the good organisation they can elect their MP. Generally he votes similarly to the govt.
Logged



Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,357


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: September 21, 2017, 04:30:16 pm »

what does the German Minority MP do in the Sejm?


Represents German minority? Recognized by law minorities had no electoral threshold so thanks to the good organisation they can elect their MP. Generally he votes similarly to the govt.

Not so long ago they had 2 MPs, but their voting share decreased significantly in the Opole Voivodeship (which is an electoral district as well). They have to reach 5% within the district, but don't have to reach 5% nationally, which would be a moot since they're not running anywhere else. Yes, to gain any seats, you must reach 5% nationally (8% for coalitions). To win seats in specific districts you need to get the magic number as well. I don't know whether 8% threshold applied to specific districts as well.
Logged

Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:15 pm »

Hunger strike of resident doctors which is main topic in media since few days now is enlarged into protest of all medical professional representatives which are members of trade union of medical professions (nurses, pharmacists, physical therapists, doctors, paramedics etc.). Main postulates of resident doctors were about financing of health care and general situation of the health care system but also about their wages, which are not that big (although nurses and paramedics have much worse situation). Now we must wait for clarification of situation but probably postulates will remain the same but including proposals for wages for all medical professions going in line with legal act project made by the union (they gathered ca 250k signatures) which was put into the trash by PiS and quickly covered up with their own, much weaker and unsatisfactory for medics one.
Logged



Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: October 31, 2017, 09:09:51 am »

Understanding Poland 101:




Support for UBI among declared voters of different parties/committees from 2015.
Logged



Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: November 21, 2017, 11:15:13 am »

So what was for probably everyone not really possible few months ago soon may become reality. PiS since few weeks are planning to do "reconstruction" of the government, on the beginning they planned only some minor changes (Infrastructure minister and Environment minister posts)  but now media are seriously telling that there are chances that Kaczyński himself will become PM, and there will be personal changes in Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministry what is a result in deal between president and Kaczyński.

PiS and its allies are also planning their new government strategy on next two years - hyperminister Morawiecki, both Minister of Finances and Developement (what is equivalent of Minister of Economy or something like that) and minister Gowin (Higher Education and Science, both are also deputy prime ministers) are strongly lobbying for focusing on economy in next two years what probably will force PiS to switch into more liberal, or at least entrepreneurship-friendly narration. But PiS is probably gearing up for next elections (and local elections are scheduled for 2018) so such change is unlikely and probably will require Morawiecki as PM, and he as a outsider still has too weak position in the party. 

Although this is not confirmed and these are still pretty much only gossips we should observe what will happen in next few weeks. I personally doubt that such major changes will happen, still I see many very solid argument for such change.


Also, Nowoczesna will have this week its congress and they will choose their new or old leader. Ryszard Petru have serious competition from Katarzyna Lubnauer, parliamentary club leader and one of the most well known politician of Nowoczesna.
Logged



wxtransit
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,881


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 3.48

P P
View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: November 21, 2017, 11:28:16 am »

So what was for probably everyone not really possible few months ago soon may become reality. PiS since few weeks are planning to do "reconstruction" of the government, on the beginning they planned only some minor changes (Infrastructure minister and Environment minister posts)  but now media are seriously telling that there are chances that Kaczyński himself will become PM, and there will be personal changes in Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministry what is a result in deal between president and Kaczyński.

PiS and its allies are also planning their new government strategy on next two years - hyperminister Morawiecki, both Minister of Finances and Developement (what is equivalent of Minister of Economy or something like that) and minister Gowin (Higher Education and Science, both are also deputy prime ministers) are strongly lobbying for focusing on economy in next two years what probably will force PiS to switch into more liberal, or at least entrepreneurship-friendly narration. But PiS is probably gearing up for next elections (and local elections are scheduled for 2018) so such change is unlikely and probably will require Morawiecki as PM, and he as a outsider still has too weak position in the party. 

Although this is not confirmed and these are still pretty much only gossips we should observe what will happen in next few weeks. I personally doubt that such major changes will happen, still I see many very solid argument for such change.


Also, Nowoczesna will have this week its congress and they will choose their new or old leader. Ryszard Petru have serious competition from Katarzyna Lubnauer, parliamentary club leader and one of the most well known politician of Nowoczesna.
That would be pretty big.
Logged

Moderate conservative (E: 1.94, S: 3.48)
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Disputed
"To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time." - Leonard Bernstein

Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: November 22, 2017, 01:22:51 pm »

Indeed, although there is also possibility that they are doing media buzz just to cover some more controversial topics like courts reform which today was discussed in parliament. 
Logged



Heat
Full Member
***
Posts: 105
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: November 25, 2017, 10:14:57 am »

Also, Nowoczesna will have this week its congress and they will choose their new or old leader. Ryszard Petru have serious competition from Katarzyna Lubnauer, parliamentary club leader and one of the most well known politician of Nowoczesna.
Lubnauer won in a squeaker, humiliating Petru who openly expected to win by a landslide. He will not be missed.
Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,357


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: November 25, 2017, 04:42:15 pm »

A historii tego swetra i tak byś nie zrozumiał.
Logged

Heat
Full Member
***
Posts: 105
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: November 25, 2017, 10:47:09 pm »

A historii tego swetra i tak byś nie zrozumiał.
Ein Kredyt, Ein Debet, Ein Ryszard.
Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,925
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: November 25, 2017, 10:47:24 pm »

Does this represent an ideological shift for Modern or what?
Logged

Pennsylvania Deplorable
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 475


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: November 25, 2017, 10:52:18 pm »

CBOS poll:

PiS: 42%
PO: 20%
Kukiz: 8%
.Nowoczesna: 6%
-----------------------
PSL: 4%
SLD: 4%
"Wolność": 2%
Razem: 2%

What a great country! Smiley

I like Poland. I wonder if the international media attacking them for their awesome independence day rally is making them rally around PiS even more.
Logged

I endorse: President Donald Trump
Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Steve King (R-IA)
Lou Barletta (R-PA)
Dave Brat (R-VA)
Lamar Smith (R-TX)
and literally anyone who runs against John McCain
Heat
Full Member
***
Posts: 105
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: November 25, 2017, 10:55:25 pm »

Does this represent an ideological shift for Modern or what?
Ideologically they're basically the same, apart from maybe abortion where Lubnauer is marginally more liberal (she wants a slight liberalisation of existing laws, Petru didn't want to discuss the issue at all). The main difference is that Petru is an extremely gaffe-prone, tone-deaf and basically rather incompetent politician and his approval rating has fallen off a cliff. Lubnauer is considerably more popular with liberal voters and is an absolute darling of the liberal media, so her becoming leader may make it easier for them to eat away at PO again.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 05:45:23 pm by Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin »Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
Speaker Scott🦋
Ascott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,942
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: November 26, 2017, 08:27:52 am »

Polish MPs have approved a bill that will end Sunday shopping by 2020.

The trade unions wanted it, but PiS supported it from a pro-family stance.
Logged

PLAY NOW!



President Infinity: 1992

Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: November 26, 2017, 10:10:48 am »

Polish MPs have approved a bill that will end Sunday shopping by 2020.

The trade unions wanted it, but PiS supported it from a pro-family stance.


Not all trade unions, only pro-govt Solidarność. OPZZ supported 250% increase in wages for work during Sundays not only for trade but also other services like security or gastronomy.
Logged



Pennsylvania Deplorable
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 475


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: November 27, 2017, 12:19:51 am »

PiS has seen a rise in the polls despite many controversial reforms. A large part of their success is due to the fact that they've stood up to the EU's demands on immigration. Victor Orban is popular in Hungary for the same reason. It seems logical that they would double down when the world media keeps attacking an annual celebration of Polish independence, which has always been a big nationalist event.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 05:46:23 pm by Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin »Logged

I endorse: President Donald Trump
Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Steve King (R-IA)
Lou Barletta (R-PA)
Dave Brat (R-VA)
Lamar Smith (R-TX)
and literally anyone who runs against John McCain
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: November 27, 2017, 02:47:30 am »

I like Poland. I wonder if the international media attacking them for their awesome independence day rally is making them rally around PiS even more.
It's not and you're an idiot.
PiS has seen a rise in the polls despite many controversial reforms. A large part of their success is due to the fact that they've stood up to the EU's demands on immigration. Victor Orban is popular in Hungary for the same reason. Calling me an idiot won't change the fact that Eastern Europe has embraced nationalism. It seems logical that they would double down when the world media keeps attacking an annual celebration of Polish independence, which has always been a big nationalist event.

1. Central Europe
2. Nothing has changed in Polish society, maybe a little bit get more polarized.
3. This wasn't annual celebration of Polish independence but annual political event celebrating Polish independence organized by some nationalist groups, there were many different events celebrating Polish independence.
4.  PiS last elections got 37.58% of votes, now they get in polls something between 37 and 43 so the support realy didn't increased that much. People are happy with social policies like increase of minimal hour wage for civil law contracts, child benefits or plans for eradicating VAT evasion. Immigrants are issue for only some part of PiS electorate. Their support is much more complex phenomenon than simply effect of opposing immigrant quotas.
Logged



Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,357


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: November 27, 2017, 05:57:22 pm »

OK, I've just cleared up this thread from flames/personal attacks.

Kaatak's response was correct. I should add the fact PiS enjoys an absolute majority with less than 40% is, so far, a bit of a fluke. SLD-UP got over 40% in 2001, PO in 2011, and yet both failed to gain a majority. One can speculate that if, among other factors, ZL did reach 8% threshold for coalitions, PiS' absolute majority would be in doubt due to the way seats are distributed. On the other hand, PiS' majority could've been bigger if PSL was under.

Remember if your party/committee gets less than 5% (8% for coalitions) you have no representation whatsoever. Its not that terrible as with FPTP, but still. It can be a matter of a fraction of percent.


As of trade ban on Sundays, I'm sceptical for one main reason. We don't have strong unions, and those remaining are more or less in bed with political parties (Solidarity with PiS, OPPZ with SLD). And without adequate workers' rights protection the business will be scaling down/reducing on expense of the workers themselves.
Logged

Heat
Full Member
***
Posts: 105
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: November 27, 2017, 09:19:45 pm »

As of trade ban on Sundays, I'm sceptical for one main reason. We don't have strong unions, and those remaining are more or less in bed with political parties (Solidarity with PiS, OPPZ with SLD). And without adequate workers' rights protection the business will be scaling down/reducing on expense of the workers themselves.
There also appear to be some absolutely massive loopholes in it, like the bakery thing (bakeries can remain open on Sundays, but a lot of supermarkets have bakeries on site these days...). I'm not against the trade ban on principle but it's not a great law.
Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
alomas
Full Member
***
Posts: 220
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: November 27, 2017, 09:33:32 pm »

Ban on Sunday trade, restrictions on alcohol consumption, planned restrictions on animals. That's in opposite to Trump, who wants to give people more freedom, PiS takes it away.

Court reforms are clearly politically motivated and would be unthinkable in the US. They keep or even increase their support because the opposition is terrible, they often make contradictory statements regarding important issues or embarrass themselves like ex-Modern Party leader - Ryszard Petru.

But the prices are on the rise and new taxes/restrictions are either start to come up (as mentioned in the beginning of the post) or will have to be put. In the 1970s there was a big improvement in the living standards thanks to the foreign loans but as debt increased, the economic crisis began and it eventually escalated to the martial law.

The light in the tunnel for opposition is the fact that PiS would struggle to find a stable coalition if unable to gain absolute majority (see 2005-2007 years) and if six parties did indeed reach the next parliament, PiS would have to top 40%, which is easier said that done in the election year. Popular reforms are already done and it's hard to think of other major things that can gather further support while a lot of problems loom ahead.
Logged
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 475


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: November 27, 2017, 10:57:49 pm »

I like Poland. I wonder if the international media attacking them for their awesome independence day rally is making them rally around PiS even more.
It's not and you're an idiot.
PiS has seen a rise in the polls despite many controversial reforms. A large part of their success is due to the fact that they've stood up to the EU's demands on immigration. Victor Orban is popular in Hungary for the same reason. Calling me an idiot won't change the fact that Eastern Europe has embraced nationalism. It seems logical that they would double down when the world media keeps attacking an annual celebration of Polish independence, which has always been a big nationalist event.

1. Central Europe
2. Nothing has changed in Polish society, maybe a little bit get more polarized.
3. This wasn't annual celebration of Polish independence but annual political event celebrating Polish independence organized by some nationalist groups, there were many different events celebrating Polish independence.
4.  PiS last elections got 37.58% of votes, now they get in polls something between 37 and 43 so the support realy didn't increased that much. People are happy with social policies like increase of minimal hour wage for civil law contracts, child benefits or plans for eradicating VAT evasion. Immigrants are issue for only some part of PiS electorate. Their support is much more complex phenomenon than simply effect of opposing immigrant quotas.
1. Former Soviet Bloc countries, especially the Visegrad 4
2. You must admit that the left has largely collapsed in Poland since the turn of the century. The center left came in first place in 2001 with over 40%. It's successor parties didn't even earn representation in 2015.
3. I never said it was the only one, but it is the most politically influential.
4. PiS lead PO roughly 32-27 in polling averages in May. Now, their lead is 40-20. Immigration is obviously not the only factor, but it seems to be helping them and it certainly helped Orban in Hungary, where Jobbik was once a real threat to his Fidesz party's majority.
Logged

I endorse: President Donald Trump
Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Steve King (R-IA)
Lou Barletta (R-PA)
Dave Brat (R-VA)
Lamar Smith (R-TX)
and literally anyone who runs against John McCain
Heat
Full Member
***
Posts: 105
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: November 29, 2017, 01:07:45 pm »

Kukiz'15 have offered to help PiS elect the new members of the National Judiciary Council in exchange for passing a bill implementing the institution of justices of the peace, who would be elected for 5-year terms. *facepalm* PiS needs Kukiz's help as under Duda's proposed law on the Council new members must be elected by a 3/5 majority (PiS+Kukiz lack one, but most of the independents are likely to vote with them anyway), and the other opposition parties are not going to cooperate.
Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: December 04, 2017, 04:54:03 pm »

Ugh, those speculations are a little bit tiring. Now media speculate or rather "inform" according to their sources that after meeting between Kaczyński, core of the party and with local party leaders agreed that deputy prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki will be new prime minister. Also Foreign Affairs minister will be out according to the info.
Logged



Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: December 07, 2017, 02:00:28 pm »

One hour or two and we should know who will be prime minister, PiS now have party meeting in their hq.
Logged



Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines