CNN/ORC National: Clinton +5 Post-Debate

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sept 28-Oct 2 (Last poll taken Sept. 1-4)
1,213 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3%


Clinton: 47% (+4)
Trump: 42% (-3)
Johnson: 7%
Stein: 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/10/03/2016.race.pdf

[Doimper]

Yuge!

[heatcharger]

CNN/ORC is the 538 of pollsters. Way too much fluctuation. Good poll though, I guess.

[dspNY]

Good poll from the Trump BFF (Jeff Zucker/Corey Lewandowski) network

[Gustaf]

Great news!

[Gass3268]

Great to see Hillary start to creep closer to 50% in the 4 way and she's over 50% in the 2 way for the first time nice after the convention.

[dspNY]

Great to see Hillary start to creep closer to 50%

In the head to head she leads 51-45

[Yank2133]

CNN/ORC is the 538 of pollsters. Way too much fluctuation. Good poll though, I guess.

Yeah, too many swings for me to see them as credible.

[Fargobison]

Seems in line with the recent state polling.

[Gass3268]

Favorables:

Clinton 43/54 -11 (Clinton's best since post-DNC)
Trump 39/59 -20 (Trump's worst since post-DNC)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

SWEET WOWIE KAZOWIE!!!

Donald be feelin' that...

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Dominating!!

[Fargobison]

[dspNY]

The rest of the numbers:

Clinton favorables: 43/54
Trump favorables: 39/59
Kaine favorables: 40/31
Pence favorables: 41/31 (time for those to go down starting tomorrow)
Economy: 49/47 Trump
Terrorism: 48/46 Trump
Immigration: 52/43 Clinton
Foreign policy: 59/36 Clinton
Trade: 49/46 Trump
Taxes: 49/46 Clinton
ISIS: 50/45 Clinton
Criminal justice: 48/46 Clinton
Race relations: 59/34 Clinton
Income inequality: 51/44 Clinton
Decisive leader: 46/43 Clinton
Temperament: 58/33 Clinton
CiC responsibilities: 56/40 Clinton
Honesty: 45/41 Trump
Admire as a person: 41/32 Clinton
In touch with middle class: 51/38 Clinton
Vision for country: 49/43 Clinton
Prepared for Presidency: 58/34 Clinton

86% say it is a civic duty to pay taxes
73% think Trump should release his tax returns
56% think Trump is hiding something bad in his taxes
59/25 Clinton in the debate

Party ID: 27D/24R/49I. Independents are way high in this poll especially because this is going to be a base election

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 91%
Trump 5%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 87%
Clinton 7%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 3%

Midwest: Clinton +9
Northeast: Clinton +8
South: Trump +10
West: Clinton +18

urban: Clinton +29
suburban: Clinton +2
rural: Trump +26

[mark_twain]

A 7-point gain compared to the last poll!

The last poll from CNN was conducted from 9/1 to 9/4, and resulted in Trump +2.

Clinton is now on a roll!

[Wiz in Wis]

Although most interviews in the survey were completed before Saturday night's revelation that Trump may have avoided income taxes for nearly two decades, the results were clear that about three-quarters of voters think Trump should release his tax returns for public review (73% say so, including about half of Trump's own supporters, 47%).

More respondents also see Trump's refusal to release this taxes as a sign that he's hiding something than that he's under audit from the IRS (57% say he's hiding something, 33% that he's holding back due to an audit).

Voters are in near-universal agreement, though, that paying taxes is every American's civic duty. Nearly 9-in-10 feel that way while just 12% say they see taxes as an unnecessary burden to be avoided. Even among Trump backers, 79% see them as a civic duty.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

[OneJ]

Dems
Clinton 91%
Trump 5%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 87%
Clinton 7%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 3%

Midwest: Clinton +9
Northeast: Clinton +8
South: Trump +10
West: Clinton +18

urban: Clinton +29
suburban: Clinton +2
rural: Trump +26

The regions look off. The Northeast should be Hillary's strongest. Also, the south looks too Trump friendly compared to other polls.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The rest of the numbers:

Clinton favorables: 43/54
Trump favorables: 39/59
Kaine favorables: 40/31
Pence favorables: 41/31 (time for those to go down starting tomorrow)
Economy: 49/47 Trump
Terrorism: 48/46 Trump
Immigration: 52/43 Clinton
Foreign policy: 59/36 Clinton
Trade: 49/46 Trump
Taxes: 49/46 Clinton
ISIS: 50/45 Clinton
Criminal justice: 48/46 Clinton
Race relations: 59/34 Clinton
Income inequality: 51/44 Clinton
Decisive leader: 46/43 Clinton
Temperament: 58/33 Clinton
CiC responsibilities: 56/40 Clinton
Honesty: 45/41 Trump
Admire as a person: 41/32 Clinton
In touch with middle class: 51/38 Clinton
Vision for country: 49/43 Clinton
Prepared for Presidency: 58/34 Clinton

86% say it is a civic duty to pay taxes
73% think Trump should release his tax returns
56% think Trump is hiding something bad in his taxes
59/25 Clinton in the debate

Party ID: 27D/24R/49I. Independents are way high in this poll especially because this is going to be a base election

Why are any of his supporters even saying this considering worsening race relations is one of the reasons they adore him so damn much? 

[HillOfANight]

CNN/ORC is the 538 of pollsters. Way too much fluctuation.

Completely useless.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Why are any of his supporters even saying this considering worsening race relations is one of the reasons they adore him so damn much? 

That's why they trust him on race relations, dur.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why are any of his supporters even saying this considering worsening race relations is one of the reasons they adore him so damn much? 

That's why they trust him on race relations, dur.

Are they asking who would improve them or who do ya trust?

[ProudModerate2]

Falls in line with many others who have recently polled Nationally.
The (moderate-size) trend to Clinton is most important here.

[ProudModerate2]

538 has adjusted this up to a Clinton +6 in their model.

[Chaddyr23]

CNN's poll is super volatile, a 5 point deficit with men instead of a 22pt one just 3 weeks ago?!