CBS/NYT National: Clinton +6/+4

[NOVA Green]

It does appear that Post-Debate and Pre-Taxgate national polls that Clinton is leading by somewhere close to 4 points in a 4-Way and 5-6 in a 2-Way.

This does NOT mean that "swing states" will move as dramatically, when one considers "Deep Blue" and "Deep Red" states like California, New York, Mass, Texas, Tennessee, etc will counterbalance a bit, but if Clinton is starting to consolidate Millennials in Atlas Red States, her national numbers will be overstated although there might only be a shift in 2-3 points in places like OH, PA, WI, etc....

Regardless, this is starting to look currently alot more like a Obama-Romney recap, with NC and IA possibly shifting places, along with OH () and possibly GA or AZ on the Dem side depending on national margins and favorable demographic changes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It does appear that Post-Debate and Pre-Taxgate national polls that Clinton is leading by somewhere close to 4 points in a 4-Way and 5-6 in a 2-Way.

This does NOT mean that "swing states" will move as dramatically, when one considers "Deep Blue" and "Deep Red" states like California, New York, Mass, Texas, Tennessee, etc will counterbalance a bit, but if Clinton is starting to consolidate Millennials in Atlas Red States, her national numbers will be overstated although there might only be a shift in 2-3 points in places like OH, PA, WI, etc....

Regardless, this is starting to look currently alot more like a Obama-Romney recap, with NC and IA possibly shifting places, along with OH () and possibly GA or AZ on the Dem side depending on national margins and favorable demographic changes.

For a good article on Ohio, check out the new Crystal Ball article "Why Trump Will Do Better in Ohio Than He Does Nationally". (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/)

[Likely Voter]

With the inclusion of this and today's other polls Clinton's margin on RCP (2-way) is +3.1. On Oct. 3 2012 (the day of the first Obama/Romney debate) Obama's margin was +3.1.

A week after that debate it dropped to Obama 0.7 and the margin stayed within 1% of a tie all the way to election day.

Hillary got about the same bounce from the debate as Romney did. One could argue that if Trump won the debate in the same way that Clinton and Romney 'won', Trump would be ahead. If Trump ends up losing the election, many may say he lost the election last Monday.

[NOVA Green]

It does appear that Post-Debate and Pre-Taxgate national polls that Clinton is leading by somewhere close to 4 points in a 4-Way and 5-6 in a 2-Way.

This does NOT mean that "swing states" will move as dramatically, when one considers "Deep Blue" and "Deep Red" states like California, New York, Mass, Texas, Tennessee, etc will counterbalance a bit, but if Clinton is starting to consolidate Millennials in Atlas Red States, her national numbers will be overstated although there might only be a shift in 2-3 points in places like OH, PA, WI, etc....

Regardless, this is starting to look currently alot more like a Obama-Romney recap, with NC and IA possibly shifting places, along with OH () and possibly GA or AZ on the Dem side depending on national margins and favorable demographic changes.

For a good article on Ohio, check out the new Crystal Ball article "Why Trump Will Do Better in Ohio Than He Does Nationally". (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/)

Thanks Georgia Moderate for posting this link!!!

A fascinating read and highly recommended for others on the forum.

OT: I did live in OH for four years back in my college days in the early '90s, and well understand some of the complexities and demographics of the state. It will be interesting to see how the state breaks on election day.... I could well see it swinging dramatically either way from polling over the past few months.

[mark_twain]

Good poll!

Keep the results coming in!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Wowzers!  What a beautiful rainbow of blacks, browns, yellows, and educateds... coming together as one to smash the Alt Right and their God-Emperor. 

[Virginiá]

With the inclusion of this and today's other polls Clinton's margin on RCP (2-way) is +3.1. On Oct. 3 2012 (the day of the first Obama/Romney debate) Obama's margin was +3.1.

I don't understand why they keep adding the LA Times tracking poll. It's +Trump no matter what. Before they were just updating a single entry whenever a new one was released, but now they add a new entry for every new tracking poll and it's dragging her average down a decent bit. I only mention this one specific tracker because it seems like blatant junk.

[cinyc]

With the inclusion of this and today's other polls Clinton's margin on RCP (2-way) is +3.1. On Oct. 3 2012 (the day of the first Obama/Romney debate) Obama's margin was +3.1.

I don't understand why they keep adding the LA Times tracking poll. It's +Trump no matter what. Before they were just updating a single entry whenever a new one was released, but now they add a new entry for every new tracking poll and it's dragging her average down a decent bit. I only mention this one specific tracker because it seems like blatant junk.

The LA Times poll showed a Clinton lead for a good portion of August.  And you can't just start excluding perceived outliers from polling averages without messing up the average.  There are likely to be supposed pro-Clinton outliers on the other side that move the average the other way.

I also think talk of polls being "junk" is way premature.  You really won't know which poll is junk until after the election.

[Virginiá]

The LA Times poll showed a Clinton lead for a good portion of August.  And you can't just start excluding perceived outliers from polling averages without messing up the average.  There are likely to be supposed pro-Clinton outliers on the other side that move the average the other way.

I also think talk of polls being "junk" is way premature.  You really won't know which poll is junk until after the election.

Even in August her lead in that poll seemed less in line with the others. Either it's onto something big that no other polls are, or it's quite a bit more Republican to the point of uselessness. Is there an outlier on the level of LA Times/USC for Clinton/Democrats? I don't see one as obvious as this USC poll but I could be wrong.

Anyway, you're right. We won't know until after the election. If you look at my history in this board, I rarely call polls junk, but this one is consistently riding on its own track and to me it just seems useless. Right now it's T+5, a 10-11 point difference from the recent Fox/CNN polls, and that is two USC polls in a row with a lot of overlap after the debate. Doesn't add up to me.

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And that does seem to be what it's doing. With the other factors in mind, I don't see why I should give this nearly the same credit as other polls.. So, I won't. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html

[pbrower2a]

Republicans have a nightmare on their hands if the white college-graduate vote breaks for Hillary Clinton. Such people are more likely to win an argument with a Trump voter with less than a college education. College educations generally make people more persuasive. Try arguing with me and I might start by suggesting that a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for the Reagan-Bush foreign policy from which Obama has strayed little. 

White college graduates used to be one of the the most reliable voting blocs for Republicans. Although the category might be different in ways from what it was fifty years ago (because college education is less a preserve of WASP elites than it was then), one might find that college-educated white people voted for Goldwater in 1964.

OK, Goldwater never had the populist streak that Trump has.     

[Maxwell]

Post-debate polls have been remarkably consistent - removing obvious jokesters like L.A. Times, Gravis, and Reuters, I get Clinton averaging 49.3% and Trump at 44%, a solid 5 point lead (assuming 2 ways, obviously).

The lead shrinks to 4 points in the 4 way, but what's interesting is that Trump seems to max out at around 45% in the 2 way and 40% in the four way.