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Author Topic: TN-MTSU: Trump+12  (Read 2184 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 04, 2016, 01:16:35 pm »

Middle Tennessee State University:

50% Trump
38% Clinton
  5% Johnson
  1% Stein

http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres
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Deep Blue Montana
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2016, 01:18:52 pm »

TN polls almost always underestimate Republican strength in the state. But we're talking about Trump here, so who knows.
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2016, 01:21:36 pm »

Typical safe state poll underestimating the eventual margin of victory.
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Southern Delegate Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2016, 01:23:47 pm »

Safe R, but nice to get a poll confirming it.
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2016, 01:26:08 pm »

TN polls almost always underestimate Republican strength in the state. But we're talking about Trump here, so who knows.

Got a bet for Trump < 17.5% margin made this May. Feeling pretty good
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2016, 01:30:38 pm »

Angry Tennessee men will ensure a Trump victory. Safe R. Smiley
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2016, 01:32:59 pm »

Typical safe state poll underestimating the eventual margin of victory.

If you fill in the undecideds breaking for Trump it'd be T+18.  The reality is probably somewhere between that and this result.
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Deep Blue Montana
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2016, 01:34:39 pm »

TN polls almost always underestimate Republican strength in the state. But we're talking about Trump here, so who knows.

Got a bet for Trump < 17.5% margin made this May. Feeling pretty good

Maybe. A generic Republican running against Clinton would have cracked 60% without breaking a sweat.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 01:38:53 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2016, 01:40:33 pm »

TN polls almost always underestimate Republican strength in the state. But we're talking about Trump here, so who knows.

Got a bet for Trump < 17.5% margin made this May. Feeling pretty good

Maybe. A generic Republican running against Clinton would have cracked 60% without breaking a sweat.

I know at least 4 Romney voters in Tennessee that are probably voting for Clinton.
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2016, 01:48:38 pm »

Weak margin for Donald Trump.
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2016, 01:50:46 pm »

I can see the tweet now: "Thanks, Tennessee! We are surging! The movement is real! Real Americans reject Crooked Hillary! Sad! #MAGA"
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2016, 02:20:31 pm »

I can see the tweet now: "Thanks, Tennessee! We are surging! The movement is real! Real Americans reject Crooked Hillary! Sad! #MAGA"


@RealDonaldTrump

Home State of favorite son Al Gore rejects #CrookedHillary.  FORMER COLLEAGUES!  PRACTICALLY HOME STATE!  SAD! 
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2016, 08:03:43 pm »

Weak R margin for a Republican nominee.
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2016, 08:16:19 pm »

This probably understates the real margin, but TN isn't voting for Clinton.  We will get the Vanderbilt poll on Thursday.  I might go to the reveal show if I don't have anything going on that morning/early afternoon.
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2016, 07:37:02 am »

11/8 result:

Trump 55%
Clinton 39%
Lol 6%
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2016, 06:59:18 pm »

Wow, Trump won by 61-35-4 in the end. POLLS SUCK!!!
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2016, 07:01:39 pm »

Wow, Trump won by 61-35-4 in the end. POLLS SUCK!!!

When was the last time polls in TN didn't underestimate Republicans?
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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2016, 08:10:09 pm »

Wow, Trump won by 61-35-4 in the end. POLLS SUCK!!!

When was the last time polls in TN didn't underestimate Republicans?

That often happens in safe states.  But, my Trump +33 GCS poll was actually closer than what either MTSU or Vanderbilt could come up with!
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2016, 12:25:32 am »

Interestingly enough - Cooper's district actually trended Democrat. Clinton won it by 19 while Obama won it only by 12 in 2012 and 16 in 2008. Can we primary that guy yet or what?
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2016, 12:35:39 am »

Interestingly enough - Cooper's district actually trended Democrat. Clinton won it by 19 while Obama won it only by 12 in 2012 and 16 in 2008. Can we primary that guy yet or what?

As a resident of that district, I can tell you that there are a ton of suburban anti-Trump style rich Republicans in it that increased her margin.  The Davidson County mayoral race was actually quite close last year, the closest a conservative has come to winning it in a long time.  Jim Cooper also won by less than he did in 2012 or 2014.  Either way, he will be gerrymandered out of a district in 2022 (I'm not sure why they didn't do it last time)!
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2016, 12:39:09 am »

Interestingly enough - Cooper's district actually trended Democrat. Clinton won it by 19 while Obama won it only by 12 in 2012 and 16 in 2008. Can we primary that guy yet or what?

As a resident of that district, I can tell you that there are a ton of suburban anti-Trump style rich Republicans in it that increased her margin.  The Davidson County mayoral race was actually quite close last year, the closest a conservative has come to winning it in a long time.  Jim Cooper also won by less than he did in 2012 or 2014.  Either way, he will be gerrymandered out of a district in 2022 (I'm not sure why they didn't do it last time)!
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Far-right social, fiscal, and neo-conservative.  Christian conservative.  My #1 goal is to overturn Roe v. Wade and end abortion worldwide.  Reaganite movement conservatism is the path forward for the GOP, not populism, nationalism, or liberal-tarianism!

Pro-immigration (secure the border and end sanctuary cities, but don't deport non-criminal illegals).

Returned to GOP avatar since Trump mostly defunded PP via executive action.

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