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| | | | |-+  YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA
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Author Topic: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA  (Read 8784 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #50 on: October 17, 2016, 08:33:12 am »

I don't think this is an actual Georgia specific poll, but part of their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) project. They take lots of responses, not necessarily Georgia specific, and then model those responses back to Georgia, based on similar profiles.
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Georgia

See the 47-44 result here.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247418.msg5321100#msg5321100

Yeah, it's already down to Clinton +1.4
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« Reply #51 on: October 17, 2016, 08:35:50 am »

WHOA
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« Reply #52 on: October 17, 2016, 08:36:39 am »

Magnificent!
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« Reply #53 on: October 17, 2016, 08:37:56 am »

Better than I was expecting at this stage!
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« Reply #54 on: October 17, 2016, 08:51:12 am »

The latest bunch of polls on some of the states which have been polled the least (Idaho, Louisiana) or not a lot (Georgia) seems to show that Clinton is overpeforming by 5 to 8 points relatively to 538's polls-only state forecasts.
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« Reply #55 on: October 17, 2016, 09:08:06 am »

not unexpected...will be close
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« Reply #56 on: October 17, 2016, 09:19:52 am »

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #57 on: October 17, 2016, 09:28:49 am »

BOOM!



1. after one day, Yougov Georgia 10/16
Hillary 45.8 | TRUMP 45.4  (10/15 it was Hillary 46.9 | TRUMP 44.4)

2. Yougov Model(GA) underweighted White Voters.

 
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Klepto Kemp
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« Reply #58 on: October 17, 2016, 09:31:54 am »

Well Clinton is up 7 points nationally so it makes since she winning GA.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #59 on: October 17, 2016, 09:43:21 am »

This is absolutely amazing. The Trumpster is melting down. However, I still believe he will carry GA, though AZ may be really in play. Especially if Johnson takes enough votes away from Trump. GA is not a good fit for Johnson as is AZ.
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« Reply #60 on: October 17, 2016, 10:04:53 am »


Great poll!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #61 on: October 17, 2016, 10:09:42 am »

Georgia going for Hillary Clinton indicates a Trump crash.
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« Reply #62 on: October 17, 2016, 10:14:40 am »

I am a realist (the North Georgia exurban vote is tremendous and will deliver 75-80% for Trump)--but I am optimistic.  

I believe the media advertising here for Hillary is going fine, but it would be good to have the Obamas come here to help drive the vote in Atlanta and the suburbs.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #63 on: October 17, 2016, 10:45:27 am »

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mark_twain
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« Reply #64 on: October 17, 2016, 11:36:53 am »


A huge improvement over the last poll from YouGov taken for GA from 8/10 to 8/12, which was Trump +4.

That was from Clinton's high point in August. Having a +7 jump from that poll is an extraordinary result for Clinton in GA.

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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #65 on: October 17, 2016, 05:03:25 pm »

Not buying this, but it would be nice to see GA be at least somewhat close on election day.
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OneJ
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« Reply #66 on: October 17, 2016, 09:55:06 pm »

Speaking of the Sipp, looks like the state Democratic Party is kinda excited about this "poll".

http://www.msnewsnow.com/story/33411331/latest-presidential-poll-breakdown-for-mississippi-shows-narrow-margin
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« Reply #67 on: October 17, 2016, 10:20:16 pm »

One thing that jumps out at me in Yougov's analysis is they think only half of hispanics & others in GA will be voting for Hillary - she will take 2/3 from both groups at the very least
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« Reply #68 on: October 19, 2016, 01:54:02 am »

I thought it felt more pleasant recently ... now I know. I look forward to SP and others crawling back under their rocks on November (I was going to say 9th, but sometime around) November 8th at about 8pm.
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« Reply #69 on: October 19, 2016, 02:00:45 am »

Why has Statespoll not been banned?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2016, 02:04:10 am »

Why has Statespoll not been banned?

you should be banned, not me Wink

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« Reply #71 on: October 19, 2016, 02:10:33 am »

Why has Statespoll not been banned?

you should be banned, not me Wink



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« Reply #72 on: October 19, 2016, 02:13:31 am »

Why has Statespoll not been banned?

you should be banned, not me Wink



Why?
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« Reply #73 on: October 21, 2016, 06:10:17 am »

 
10/20(Post Final Debate)
TRUMP flipped Georgia[/b][/size]

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/


GA: TRUMP 46.7% | Hillary 46.2%
AZ: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 41.3%
NC: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 47.9%

PA: TRUMP 45.8% | Hillary 46.4%
OH: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 46.9%
FL:  TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 47.7%
WI: TRUMP 44.1% | Hillary 47.7%
CO: TRUMP 42.6% | Hillary 47.2%

IA: TRUMP 43.5% | Hillary 45.7%
NV: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 46.6%
MI: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 48.7%

MN: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 48.4%
ME: TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 49.1%
OR: TRUMP 39.9% | Hillary 49.5%
VA: TRUMP 41.0% | Hillary 49.9%
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 06:16:16 am by StatesPoll »Logged
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« Reply #74 on: October 21, 2016, 07:49:54 am »


10/20(Post Final Debate)
TRUMP flipped Georgia[/b][/size]

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/


GA: TRUMP 46.7% | Hillary 46.2%
AZ: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 41.3%
NC: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 47.9%

PA: TRUMP 45.8% | Hillary 46.4%
OH: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 46.9%
FL:  TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 47.7%
WI: TRUMP 44.1% | Hillary 47.7%
CO: TRUMP 42.6% | Hillary 47.2%

IA: TRUMP 43.5% | Hillary 45.7%
NV: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 46.6%
MI: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 48.7%

MN: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 48.4%
ME: TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 49.1%
OR: TRUMP 39.9% | Hillary 49.5%
VA: TRUMP 41.0% | Hillary 49.9%

Oh yes, that all important swing state of Georgia. How will any Democrat ever win without it.
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