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| | | | |-+  FL/OH/PA/NC Quinnipiac: Rubio +4, Portman +17, Toomey +8, Tie in NC
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA/NC Quinnipiac: Rubio +4, Portman +17, Toomey +8, Tie in NC  (Read 1416 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: October 05, 2016, 11:01:30 am »

Florida
48% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
44% Patrick Murphy (D)

Ohio
55% Rob Portman (R, inc.)
38% Ted Strickland (D)

Pennsylvania
50% Pat Toomey (R, inc.)
42% Katie McGinty (D)

North Carolina
46% Richard Burr (R, inc.)
46% Deborah Ross (D)

Link.
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 11:06:44 am »

Yes yes yassss at Toomey +8. Go Pat Go!

Portman doesn't need any help. He's got this.

Rubio at only +4 is scary, even as the DSCC is getting out, but maybe this is an outlier.

And of course, North Carolina will sure be a nailbiter. I'm really nervous there, Burr shouldn't be sleepwalking, he should be up by as much as Rubio is up in this poll.
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 11:13:55 am »

You all know what I think of Quinnipiac lol.

I mean, come on, I understand that people believe Toomey has a shot even if I disagree, but he's definitely not leading by 8 points.
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 11:15:53 am »

PA is an outlier, and OH looks a bit too favorable for Portman, which isn't surprising, given that their OH/PA presidential numbers seemed a bit Republican friendly. NC/FL look about right, and on par with other polls. Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart is favored, though I'm not going to give up on Murphy just yet, and North Carolina is looking like it could be the closest Senate race.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 11:18:45 am »

Even if PA is an outlier, Toomey is running 10 points ahead of Trump in the Monmouth poll and 12 points ahead of Trump in the QU poll. This race is a Tossup.
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2016, 11:20:22 am »

Even if PA is an outlier, Toomey is running 10 points ahead of Trump in the Monmouth poll and 12 points ahead of Trump in the QU poll. This race is a Tossup.
And in some others he's not overperforming by much though
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 11:47:15 am »

If Toomey can win, that makes a Senate majority a whole lot easier.  I'm a little worried about that Rubio number and disturbed by what seems to be happening in NC, though.
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 12:15:12 pm »

Quinnipiac must've gotten a junk PA sample because it doesn't make sense even when compared to their own polls.
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2016, 01:58:49 pm »

WHAT
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2016, 02:08:48 pm »

While I don't believe Toomey will win by 8 in the end, the important thing to note is we now have two different polls where Toomey is running 10+ points ahead of Trump. If he actually does that on election day, he can definitely win.
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2016, 02:19:06 pm »

While I don't believe Toomey will win by 8 in the end, the important thing to note is we now have two different polls where Toomey is running 10+ points ahead of Trump. If he actually does that on election day, he can definitely win.
I agree, this is good for Toomey. Trump won't win Pennsylvania, but it will be within 5 points.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 02:45:30 pm by Heisenberg »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2016, 02:39:02 pm »

+4 Rubio would be enough to defeat him should this election go terribly south for The Donald.
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2016, 03:22:54 pm »

A month ago, the same poll had Toomey up by but 1%. Any other polls picking up a Toomey surge? Why is there a Toomey surge if there is one? Is he blanketing the airways with effective ads? Are voters getting tired of McGinty? Did she screw up somehow?
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2016, 04:15:10 pm »

A month ago, the same poll had Toomey up by but 1%. Any other polls picking up a Toomey surge? Why is there a Toomey surge if there is one? Is he blanketing the airways with effective ads? Are voters getting tired of McGinty? Did she screw up somehow?

Monmouth had him at -4 a month ago and now they have it as tied.


Toomey had equalized his TV presence in the Philly market somewhat, at least I had read that somewhere. Not sure if that has impacted these polls or not.
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2016, 04:19:48 pm »

A month ago, the same poll had Toomey up by but 1%. Any other polls picking up a Toomey surge? Why is there a Toomey surge if there is one? Is he blanketing the airways with effective ads? Are voters getting tired of McGinty? Did she screw up somehow?

Monmouth had him at -4 a month ago and now they have it as tied.


Toomey had equalized his TV presence in the Philly market somewhat, at least I had read that somewhere. Not sure if that has impacted these polls or not.

FWIW, Toomey has posted 4 new TV ads on Youtube since the first presidential debate. 8 if we go back to the beginning of September. By comparison, he did not post any new TV ads at all in August, and only 2 in July.
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2016, 04:37:50 pm »

Very cute, heatwarming new Toomey ad. Hopefully this gives him a "better chance" at holding his seat.
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2016, 04:46:56 pm »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2016, 04:48:19 pm »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!

Do you support Toomey or McGinty?
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2016, 05:03:17 pm »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!

Do you support Toomey or McGinty?
That is a good question. His views seem pretty inconsistent.
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2016, 05:41:31 pm »

FTR, this poll was held in the same time frame as the Franklin&Marshall one. So the trend is not that clear. Still very unnerving though. We need more polls.
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2016, 06:31:22 pm »

Rob Portman could win reelection by 20 points. He's a good politician. He beat Lee Fisher and is going to likely beat Ted Strickland.
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2016, 02:45:57 am »

Ross is going strong, Feingold is comfortably ahead of Johnson despite a flurry of super pac ads especially by the Kochs. It just shows strong the progressive candidates are & how they are much more electable than vanilla moderates.

Mcginty should be winning by 6-7% indeed but she is not a very strong candidate. Also Kochs n the superpacs have blasted Katie like there is no tomorrow. If there is 1 candidate they are going madly after, it is Katie - Most number of ads in their youtube page - Probably has to do with Katie being strong environment conservation wise.

Dems have to focus more on Senate & House races with more money & plus campaigns exclusively for Senate & House races by Sanders, Obama, Biden, Warren, etc. You can't have Ayotte & Toomey running 10% points ahead of Trump. Clinton's campaign of projecting Trump as a monster & cosying up to to GOP people is hurting downballot candidates!
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2016, 11:38:29 am »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!

Do you support Toomey or McGinty?

I supported Toomey for most of the campaign, but I'm a bit undecided at the moment. Definitely the toughest race to make a decision on in my neck of the woods.
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2016, 02:54:28 pm »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!

Do you support Toomey or McGinty?

I supported Toomey for most of the campaign, but I'm a bit undecided at the moment. Definitely the toughest race to make a decision on in my neck of the woods.
What CD do you live in? Are you in the 8th (apparently the only competitive one in Pennsylvania this year)?
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MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
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OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2016, 02:59:01 pm »

Glad to see Toomey ahead of Rubio. If only one Republican had to win, I'd prefer it be Toomey to the rest of these horrible candidates - Portman, an acceptable second.

C'mon Murphy, keep on fighting, boy!

Do you support Toomey or McGinty?

I supported Toomey for most of the campaign, but I'm a bit undecided at the moment. Definitely the toughest race to make a decision on in my neck of the woods.
What CD do you live in? Are you in the 8th (apparently the only competitive one in Pennsylvania this year)?

No, I'm in the city - PA-2, the least competitive one in the state.
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