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Author Topic: NM-SUSA: Clinton+13 (HRC:46/DJT:33/GEJ:14)  (Read 1507 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 05, 2016, 01:50:43 pm »

46% Hillary
33% Trump
14% Johnson
  2% Stein
  2% Others

Quote
Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of NM adults 09/28/16 through 10/02/16. Of the adults, 682 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election; 524 were likely to vote in the Secretary of State contest. 5% of registered voters say they almost always vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 7% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential election, but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and defeated Republican John McCain by 15 points in 2008. In 2004 and 2000, Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore carried New Mexico by less than 1 percentage point. New Mexico's last elected Secretary of State, Republican Dianna Duran, resigned after pleading guilty to felony embezzlement and money laundering. The seat is open. Gary Johnson was elected Governor of New Mexico in 1994 and 1998. He ran as a Republican.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fda53900-e6db-46a6-86a5-81e39fd92d32
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 02:19:51 pm by Likely Voter »Logged
Xing
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 01:55:15 pm »

B-b-b-but Battleground New Mexico!
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 01:56:27 pm »

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Hillary wallops Trump,much to the chagrin of Tender, Johnson not as strong anymore
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 01:57:50 pm »

Who didn't see this happening?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 02:00:32 pm »

JUST PUT THE NUMBERS IN THE HEADER AHHHHH
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2016, 02:03:06 pm »

Yeah makes that Nate Silver article look pretty f[Inks]ing dumb in retrospect.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 02:42:56 pm »

A reminder - Obama won New Mexico by 10 in 2012. This is a larger margin than that, and Trump is only at 33%.

This poll also contradicts what a lot of people are saying - that people are voting enthusiastically for Trump.

50% of Trump voters are voting against Clinton. Only 33% of Clinton voters are voting against Trump. A whopping 66% of Clinton voters are voting FOR HER.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 02:45:02 pm by Maxwell »Logged
King Francis I
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 02:46:50 pm »

Guys come on,
Did any on you seriously believe NM was going to be competitive?
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2016, 02:53:29 pm »

New New New Mexico is ultra safe D, while New New Mexico is likely D. Great news. Soon AZ will join.
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Sic semper tyrannis.
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2016, 03:02:03 pm »

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2016, 03:04:07 pm »

how the floodgates opened everywhere at the same time.....
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Alcon
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2016, 03:11:12 pm »

Nate Silver must be sweating bullets after his last New Mexico article!  Clinton is putting away Johnson and Trump faster than a Millennial puts away his iPad when his mom walks in unexpectedly on his viewing of the Trump sex tape.

I don't know why I've become the designated "let's be fair to Nate Silver's arguments" guy, but:

Quote
But plausible is a long way from likely. Itís not far-fetched to think the Electoral College would be close enough that New Mexico would make the difference, and itís not totally crazy to think that Johnson could win his home state. But for both to occur together is quite a parlay.1 In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at 0.15 percent. Most of those did involve Johnson winning New Mexico, sometimes along with Alaska (probably his second-best state).
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n/c
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2016, 03:16:51 pm »

Tender and Nate both drenched in dog sweat after this result, no doubt. Sad!
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2016, 03:21:31 pm »

how the floodgates opened everywhere at the same time.....

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2016, 03:24:42 pm »

Nate Silver must be sweating bullets after his last New Mexico article!  Clinton is putting away Johnson and Trump faster than a Millennial puts away his iPad when his mom walks in unexpectedly on his viewing of the Trump sex tape.

I don't know why I've become the designated "let's be fair to Nate Silver's arguments" guy, but:

Quote
But plausible is a long way from likely. Itís not far-fetched to think the Electoral College would be close enough that New Mexico would make the difference, and itís not totally crazy to think that Johnson could win his home state. But for both to occur together is quite a parlay.1 In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at 0.15 percent. Most of those did involve Johnson winning New Mexico, sometimes along with Alaska (probably his second-best state).

Yeah, I don't get the Nate-hate from some on this board.  He wrote an article about a hypothetical election scenario that he admitted up front was unlikely.  That's no different from half the posters on this forum, except that he gets paid for it. Wink
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Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2016, 06:17:05 pm »

Trump and Clinton basically tied among White voters... God, Trump is collapsing everywhere. What a terrible candidate.

JUST PUT THE NUMBERS IN THE HEADER AHHHHH

^And call her "Clinton", not Hillary.

The last name belongs to the husband, you see. If HILLARY wanted to be her own person she should have kept her maiden name.
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

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King
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2016, 06:22:26 pm »

Johnson is just getting creamed in the local media right now. The whole state is embarrassed.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2016, 07:49:42 pm »

Johnson is just getting creamed in the local media right now. The whole state is embarrassed.

Over Aleppo or something else?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2016, 09:51:55 pm »

That's more like it.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
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