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Author Topic: TX-Dixie Strategies: Trump +7  (Read 1341 times)
Interlocutor
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« on: October 05, 2016, 07:07:36 pm »

KTVT-CBS 11/ Dixie Strategies
Sept. 29 - Oct. 1 (Last poll Aug. 8-9)
780 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.51%
538 rating: C+

Trump: 44.87% (-1.4)
Clinton: 37.95% (+2.5)
Johnson: 4.23%
Stein: .9%

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/10/05/trump-leads-clinton-gains-in-latest-texas-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-poll/
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 07:10:06 pm by Interlocutor »Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 07:09:10 pm »

I mean "decimals" but Trump by 6-9% is about where I think TX is... so.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 07:20:16 pm »

I mean "decimals" but Trump by 6-9% is about where I think TX is... so.

Agree.  This is consistent with a national Clinton lead of 5 or so, which the most recent polls seem to be indicating.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 07:24:03 pm »

TWO decimals places!? LOL, but this does look about right. I really want to see some Arizona polls, though.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 07:36:14 pm »

Wow, a four point improvement since early August, when Clinton was at her peak nationally?? It's a landslide, folks.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2016, 07:44:55 pm »

I want an Arizona poll pronto.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 07:48:24 pm »

I want an Arizona poll pronto.

Ditto. Arizona is right on the cusp of flipping if this TX poll is accurate.

Some interesting demographic results:

White: Trump 59, Clinton 32
Hispanic: Clinton 52, Trump 39
Black: Clinton 69, Trump 20

I think this poll understates Clinton with minority voters and could be understating Trump with white voters. When you balance them out to more expected results (ex. Trump 66-27 with whites, Clinton 65-25 with Hispanics, Clinton 90-5 with African-Americans) the result stays around the same
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 07:48:46 pm »

Wow, a four point improvement since early August, when Clinton was at her peak nationally?? It's a landslide, folks.
This, minus the landslide (bit too early to say!)
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2016, 07:53:49 pm »

Another few interesting pieces of info in the poll:

There are 10% undecided. Most of them are women.

Among those 10% undecided, there are more nonwhites than whites
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2016, 08:38:53 pm »

Plausible.

The next Republican president midterm will be very, very interesting in Texas.

Well, I still see Cruz and Abbott cracking 60% in 2018. But if we get more Trumpish Republican nominees, this isn't going to end well for the TX GOP.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2016, 03:40:09 pm »

I have long said that Texas will be much more competitive this cycle than in previous elections, because of the candidate that the Republican Party selected is not only unappealing to Tejanos and Latinos in Texas, but in addition will significantly under-perform in heavily-Anglo and Upper-Middle Class suburbs surrounding Houston, DFW, Austin, and San Antonio.

That being said, we haven't really seen very many polls from Texas from decent polling organizations at all, so it's difficult to have an idea of where the race is at, and I have no reason to trust this poll any more or less than most of the others, in a state that is extremely difficult to poll.

However, IF voting registration & turnout significantly increase among working-class Latinos that typically vote 80% Democratic in Texas, AND Middle-Class Latinos start breaking heavily Democratic (as opposed to 55-45) that will definitely have an impact on the final margins, even without a collapse of Republican Presidential support in places like Montgomery and Fort Bend counties, etc....
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2016, 03:43:00 pm »

I want an Arizona poll pronto.

Ditto. Arizona is right on the cusp of flipping if this TX poll is accurate.

Some interesting demographic results:

White: Trump 59, Clinton 32
Hispanic: Clinton 52, Trump 39
Black: Clinton 69, Trump 20


I think this poll understates Clinton with minority voters and could be understating Trump with white voters. When you balance them out to more expected results (ex. Trump 66-27 with whites, Clinton 65-25 with Hispanics, Clinton 90-5 with African-Americans) the result stays around the same

You might look at this at first glance on the Dem side and say... TRUMP with 20% of blacks... 40% of browns?!  But remember, this is the record tumor on America that we know as "Texas".  We should never be surprised at how much they suck.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2016, 03:45:18 pm »

The main reason Trump is ahead in Texas are the older voters. He's getting hammered even among younger whites.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2016, 07:05:55 pm »

The main reason Trump is ahead in Texas are the older voters. He's getting hammered even among younger whites.

Texas is one of the few states where Trump has appeal among White youth.
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