NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,447
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« on: October 06, 2016, 03:40:09 PM » |
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I have long said that Texas will be much more competitive this cycle than in previous elections, because of the candidate that the Republican Party selected is not only unappealing to Tejanos and Latinos in Texas, but in addition will significantly under-perform in heavily-Anglo and Upper-Middle Class suburbs surrounding Houston, DFW, Austin, and San Antonio.
That being said, we haven't really seen very many polls from Texas from decent polling organizations at all, so it's difficult to have an idea of where the race is at, and I have no reason to trust this poll any more or less than most of the others, in a state that is extremely difficult to poll.
However, IF voting registration & turnout significantly increase among working-class Latinos that typically vote 80% Democratic in Texas, AND Middle-Class Latinos start breaking heavily Democratic (as opposed to 55-45) that will definitely have an impact on the final margins, even without a collapse of Republican Presidential support in places like Montgomery and Fort Bend counties, etc....
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