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Author Topic: Emerson: RI - Clinton +20 / AZ - Clinton +2 / NV - Tied / FL - Trump +1  (Read 2269 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 06, 2016, 06:47:02 am »

Emerson College Poll (Landline only):

Rhode Island

Clinton 52
Trump 32
Johnson 5
Stein 5

Arizona

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 9
Stein 1

Nevada

Clinton 43
Trump 43
Johnson 9
Stein 3 (Not on the ballot)

Florida

Trump 45
Clinton 44
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Source
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 06:53:26 am by Assemblyman Gass3268 »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2016, 06:50:17 am »

If that IS landline only, then Clinton is in great shape. Oh, how about Spanish?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2016, 06:54:40 am »

If that IS landline only, then Clinton is in great shape. Oh, how about Spanish?

Doesn't say, so I am guessing they don't.
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3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
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7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
/
darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2016, 06:55:28 am »

Trash
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2016, 07:26:56 am »

Emerson makes Gravis look like a respectable polling company.
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2016, 07:35:18 am »

Emerson makes Gravis look like a respectable polling company.
They're close.
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2016, 07:45:53 am »

wut
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2016, 07:58:31 am »

http://www.theecps.com/ has crosstabs and Excels.

Among whites in Arizona, it's 39% Clinton to 44% Trump and 11% Johnson.

Among whites in Nevada, it's 34% Clinton, 53% Trump, 7% Johnson, 5% Stein.

Among whites in Florida, it's 32% Clinton, 55% Trump, 6% Johnson, 4% Stein.

If it's close to 40% for Clinton among whites in Arizona, then it is game over there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2016, 09:00:56 am »

http://www.theecps.com/ has crosstabs and Excels.

Among whites in Arizona, it's 39% Clinton to 44% Trump and 11% Johnson.

Among whites in Nevada, it's 34% Clinton, 53% Trump, 7% Johnson, 5% Stein.

Among whites in Florida, it's 32% Clinton, 55% Trump, 6% Johnson, 4% Stein.

If it's close to 40% for Clinton among whites in Arizona, then it is game over there.

44% of the non-Hispanic white vote in Arizona is far from adequate for a Trump win in Arizona. I can only imagine how many mixed-ethnicity Millennial and Generation-X youth (Anglo and Hispanic parents) there are in Arizona; it must be a significant percentage), so the classification may be shady without anyone being at fault. Likewise Nevada (where 54% of the white non-Hispanic vote will be inadequate for Trump) or Florida. I am guessing that this pollster is English-only.

 
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2016, 09:04:16 am »

Spare a thought for dopey Nate Silver, whose dreams of battleground RI died today.
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2016, 09:28:35 am »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2016, 09:33:03 am »

Hot, flaming garbage
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2016, 09:46:19 am »

How's she leading in AZ but lagging in Florida..
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2016, 10:19:41 am »

How's she leading in AZ but lagging in Florida..

Haha yeah, what a joke.
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2016, 10:50:50 am »

Repeat after me, folks:
E-M-E-R-S-O-N
I-S
G-A-R-B-A-G-E
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2016, 10:54:12 am »

 
It is very weird to see red avatars are complaining of these Emerson Polls.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7af2e664bfad4690bfb4a994b0f0836c.pdf

1. Look at page 7. They used 2 languges for these polls. English/Spanish
2. These are Landline Polls? unless Emerson didn't skew for TRUMP. It can't be matter anymore for red avatars.

1) Florida.
Oversampled Black,Hispanic, Undersampled White.
2012 FL Exit Poll: White 67% | Hispanic 17% | Black 13%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, FL. : White 65% | Hispanic 19% | Black 14%

2) Nevada
Oversampled Black,Hispanic, Undersampled White.
2012 NV Exit Poll: White 64% | Hispanic 19% | Black 9%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, NV. : White 62% | Hispanic 22% | Black 10%

3) Arizona
Oversampled  Hispanic, Undersampled White
2012 AZ Exit Poll: White 74% | Hispanic 18% | Black 4%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, AZ. : White 71.2% | Hispanic 22.1% | Black 3.3%


« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 10:59:52 am by StatesPoll »Logged
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2016, 11:06:34 am »

All landline-only polls are bad, no matter which candidate they favor.
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2016, 03:09:15 pm »


It is very weird to see red avatars are complaining of these Emerson Polls.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7af2e664bfad4690bfb4a994b0f0836c.pdf

1. Look at page 7. They used 2 languges for these polls. English/Spanish
2. These are Landline Polls? unless Emerson didn't skew for TRUMP. It can't be matter anymore for red avatars.

1) Florida.
Oversampled Black,Hispanic, Undersampled White.
2012 FL Exit Poll: White 67% | Hispanic 17% | Black 13%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, FL. : White 65% | Hispanic 19% | Black 14%

2) Nevada
Oversampled Black,Hispanic, Undersampled White.
2012 NV Exit Poll: White 64% | Hispanic 19% | Black 9%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, NV. : White 62% | Hispanic 22% | Black 10%

3) Arizona
Oversampled  Hispanic, Undersampled White
2012 AZ Exit Poll: White 74% | Hispanic 18% | Black 4%
Emerson 10/2-10/4, AZ. : White 71.2% | Hispanic 22.1% | Black 3.3%




I hope you realize that the hispanic population is growing faster than the white population in all 3 of those states, making a roughly 2% drop in whites and gain in hispanics reasonable.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2016, 03:22:07 pm »

rofl lmao +2 in Arizona and -1 in Florida rofl lmao okay

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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2016, 04:35:44 pm »

Trash

There is a reason why there is a Margin of Error. Its actually most likely that the numbers stated are not the actual % support due to the deviation. Its the science of the statistical Standard Curve. If you have a TI-84, its under "DISTR", then "Normal cdf" or "Normal cdf" depending if you want to find the curve values or probability. You can find the exact deviation depending on the MOE, Sample size, and curve values.
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2016, 06:21:38 pm »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
What a condescending, elitist douche Nate Cohn is. There are other ways to get that point across without being a di*k. Not shocked he works for the New York Times.

As far as these polls go, the Florida poll was like 59-41 Female vs. Male for starters. Nevada was D+10, so Cohn may be right, but he doesn't have to be such a toolbag about it.
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2016, 06:30:22 pm »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
What a condescending, elitist douche Nate Cohn is. There are other ways to get that point across without being a di*k. Not shocked he works for the New York Times.

As far as these polls go, the Florida poll was like 59-41 Female vs. Male for starters. Nevada was D+10, so Cohn may be right, but he doesn't have to be such a toolbag about it.
Lol looks like Seriously got #triggered.
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2016, 06:31:21 pm »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
What a condescending, elitist douche Nate Cohn is. There are other ways to get that point across without being a di*k. Not shocked he works for the New York Times.

As far as these polls go, the Florida poll was like 59-41 Female vs. Male for starters. Nevada was D+10, so Cohn may be right, but he doesn't have to be such a toolbag about it.
Lol looks like Seriously got #triggered.
But seriously, could I have a beer with Nate Cohn and talk about how illegals are ruining this country?

I thought not.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2016, 06:40:39 pm »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
What a condescending, elitist douche Nate Cohn is. There are other ways to get that point across without being a di*k. Not shocked he works for the New York Times.

As far as these polls go, the Florida poll was like 59-41 Female vs. Male for starters. Nevada was D+10, so Cohn may be right, but he doesn't have to be such a toolbag about it.

Sorry a pollster on twitter hurt your feelings. Perhaps you should find a safe space.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2016, 09:02:13 pm »

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot polling guy) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784033604808613888):

Quote
I'm sorry, Trump fans. But Rasmussen, Gravis and Emerson polls just aren't up to standard. Don't kid yourself.
What a condescending, elitist douche Nate Cohn is. There are other ways to get that point across without being a di*k. Not shocked he works for the New York Times.

As far as these polls go, the Florida poll was like 59-41 Female vs. Male for starters. Nevada was D+10, so Cohn may be right, but he doesn't have to be such a toolbag about it.

Sorry a pollster on twitter hurt your feelings. Perhaps you should find a safe space.
I obviously have no need for a safe space if I stomach this place.
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