Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 18, 2019, 02:03:08 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16  (Read 1087 times)
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,167
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 06, 2016, 11:58:34 pm »
« edited: October 07, 2016, 12:36:36 am by heatcharger »

http://komonews.com/news/local/komo-poll-clinton-has-big-washington-lead-big-unfavorables-inlsee-leads

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 33%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 31%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,749
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2016, 12:15:32 am »

The margin looks about right, though third parties won't end up getting that much.
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,925
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2016, 12:35:41 am »

The margin looks about right, though third parties won't end up getting that much.

The two-way is 50/33, with 4% undecided and I assume 13% "not voting" (no).

The non-pick rate in the two-way is 5% for Democrats, 11% for Republicans, and 35% for Independents (lol).
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2016, 04:36:11 am »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3? 
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,105
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2016, 04:37:58 am »

Margins looks correct. I think it will end up in the range 56-39%.
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,925
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2016, 04:44:31 am »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 04:53:19 am by Alcon »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,836
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2016, 09:26:39 am »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.
Logged
evergreenarbor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 883


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2016, 12:09:52 pm »

This looks about right, though I agree that the third-party vote will probably be a bit lower than that.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,749
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2016, 12:12:00 pm »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.

People viewed WA as Safe Obama in 2012, though, and third party voting was only a bit higher than the nation as a whole. I could buy something like 54-37, but I doubt we'll see over 15% voting third party.

I'll also be interested to see the results in Yakima. I expect Trump to win it, but it might end up closer than in 2008 or 2012.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,285
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2016, 12:51:44 pm »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.

All this is awesome. How do you see these swings affecting state leg races?
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,836
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2016, 01:42:33 pm »

third parties won't end up getting that much.

I don't know about that. A lot of people view Washington as safe Clinton and aren't bothering to hold their noses this time around.

People viewed WA as Safe Obama in 2012, though, and third party voting was only a bit higher than the nation as a whole. I could buy something like 54-37, but I doubt we'll see over 15% voting third party.

Obama and Romney were much more palatable than Clinton and Trump.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2016, 01:43:12 pm »

Safe Dem. Have absolutely no idea why Trump wasted his time there in August
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2016, 03:53:16 am »
« Edited: October 08, 2016, 03:55:56 am by Fuzzybigfoot »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.

Gun to my head, I probably would've picked Trump to win WA-3.  Given recent events, I'm not so sure.  As for WA-8, I would've guessed Hillary 49%-46%.  
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC