Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz? And who wins WA-3?
That's a great question. I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz. Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though. I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI. A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).
My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).
I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).
This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.
What do you think? I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA. Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.
All this is awesome. How do you see these swings affecting state leg races?
