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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WA-KOMO News: Clinton +17/+16  (Read 1098 times)
Alcon
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« on: October 07, 2016, 12:35:41 am »

The margin looks about right, though third parties won't end up getting that much.

The two-way is 50/33, with 4% undecided and I assume 13% "not voting" (no).

The non-pick rate in the two-way is 5% for Democrats, 11% for Republicans, and 35% for Independents (lol).
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2016, 04:44:31 am »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 04:53:19 am by Alcon »

Hey Alcon, what do you think is more likely: Hillary flipping Whitman county, or Trump flipping Cowlitz?  And who wins WA-3?  

That's a great question.  I have a really rough spreadsheet model that currently gives Clinton +1.4 in Whitman and Trump +0.5 in Cowlitz.  Pullman turnout is a pretty big x-factor, though.  I'd say Whitman if pressed, but Cowlitz will definitely veer right on the PVI.  A few weeks ago, I would have given Trump better than even odds for Mason and Pacific, and probably Grays Harbor at the worst of it (plus Clallam, although that's always a swing county).

My model has Trump +0.5 in WA-3 and Clinton +1.2 in WA-8, which I'd actually argue isn't an awful district for Trump (unlike the old WA-8).

I don't expect a sea change in the results outside of the educated suburbs, but that's enough to make King County really nasty in my model (66-25 Clinton, with Seattle 78-11).

This is a pretty hasty model based on past election input, the primary, some demographics, etc., so it's really just for fun.

What do you think?  I honestly have been skeptical of the Clinton +11-12 average for WA.  Clinton +14 or so feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were higher.
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