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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR: Trump +4  (Read 2111 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 08, 2016, 07:01:41 pm »

Trump 43, Clinton 39

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/10/08/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-by-4-points/91673644/?hootPostID=ecf1d1a2d93c8cc5adf5dbdb66d5fab7
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 07:02:01 pm »

Whoa....

inb4 Wulfric says he will vote for Clinton again because of this poll, lol.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 07:06:47 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2016, 07:02:27 pm »

Pre-Assaultgate, but still, looks like Iowa will trend sharply to the right.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2016, 07:03:06 pm »

seems right.

has been before tape-gate and iowa was the most trump-friendly state of all.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2016, 07:03:24 pm »

Whoa....

The full numbers: Trump 43, Clinton 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Poll taken before the tape came out yesterday and Selzer notes that as an important caveat, indicating that the numbers in this poll might be dated
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2016, 07:04:00 pm »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2016, 07:04:32 pm »

I have a feeling 2016 will be Selzer's year of total disgrace.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2016, 07:04:57 pm »

Whoa....

Expected.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2016, 07:07:20 pm »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.

She missed in the Iowa caucuses, overestimating Trump and underestimating Cruz
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2016, 07:08:23 pm »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.

She missed in the Iowa caucuses, overestimating Trump and underestimating Cruz

You have to be 100% sure you are going to vote. Not even a probably counts.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2016, 07:10:56 pm »

Come on, this could have been right yesterday.  Is this that implausible?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2016, 07:13:01 pm »

Useless poll because it was taken before the tape was released.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2016, 07:13:25 pm »

Come on, this could have been right yesterday.  Is this that implausible?

Not implausible at all...because Iowa hasn't behaved like normal Iowa this cycle. That being said, Selzer had to add the caveat of grab-gate in the writeup because that would change the polling substantially
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2016, 07:14:43 pm »

Come on, this could have been right yesterday.  Is this that implausible?

No, it is not implausible.
It looks about right, pre-MeowGate.
But I can see it being Lean-Clinton in about 1 to 2 weeks.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2016, 07:20:54 pm »

Quote
David Moore, a 32-year-old independent from Des Moines, compared conventional politics to professional wrestling, where the conflicts are staged and the drama manufactured. The way Trump ignores and upends political convention, he said, makes him a “people’s champion.”

Moore, a welder and mechanic who was changing the oil in a car when contacted by The Des Moines Register, recalled a speech from earlier this year in which Trump “came out and dropped the F bomb three times.”

“I thought it was the coolest thing I ever saw,” he said. “It just sounded so awesome to hear somebody of his status say those words and just speak what he felt was the truth.”

What a trash state. Glad we're replacing it with Virginia in the freiwal, a clear upgrade.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2016, 07:52:13 pm »

This suggests that Hillary's bounce was just starting to erode right when the tape came out. It was perfect timing.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2016, 08:05:25 pm »

Pre-assaultgate, so garbage.

Whoa....

inb4 Wulfric says he will vote for Clinton again because of this poll, lol.

At this point, if Clinton loses the election, there was no possible way to stop Trump.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2016, 08:13:56 pm »

Well Iowa is a 4 lettered word...so is Rape.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2016, 08:28:32 pm »

Well..

next Iowa poll will likely show Clinton in the lead.

Trump could have well overperformed in the Midwest and rust belt. Now he will not. And he will do very poorly in the South for a Republican.

It will be a landslide !
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2016, 08:42:58 pm »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.

She missed in the Iowa caucuses, overestimating Trump and underestimating Cruz

She did pretty well on the Democratic side though.

Basically all of the pollsters overestimated Trump there for whatever reason.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2016, 08:59:10 pm »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.

She missed in the Iowa caucuses, overestimating Trump and underestimating Cruz

She did pretty well on the Democratic side though.

Basically all of the pollsters overestimated Trump there for whatever reason.

Not quite. The Selzer poll was Clinton +3 and it was a "virtual tie" so...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2016, 12:34:47 am »

Quote
David Moore, a 32-year-old independent from Des Moines, compared conventional politics to professional wrestling, where the conflicts are staged and the drama manufactured. The way Trump ignores and upends political convention, he said, makes him a “people’s champion.”

Moore, a welder and mechanic who was changing the oil in a car when contacted by The Des Moines Register, recalled a speech from earlier this year in which Trump “came out and dropped the F bomb three times.”

“I thought it was the coolest thing I ever saw,” he said. “It just sounded so awesome to hear somebody of his status say those words and just speak what he felt was the truth.”

What a trash state. Glad we're replacing it with Virginia in the freiwal, a clear upgrade.

I'm pretty positive that if Hillary dropped the F-bomb then this guy would howl to the moon about what a "bitch" she is.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2016, 12:35:23 am »

How stupid are the people of Iowa?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2016, 01:10:07 am »

Selzer's LV screen is crazy strict.

She missed in the Iowa caucuses, overestimating Trump and underestimating Cruz

She did pretty well on the Democratic side though.

Basically all of the pollsters overestimated Trump there for whatever reason.

Not quite. The Selzer poll was Clinton +3 and it was a "virtual tie" so...

MOE? That's a solid poll.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2016, 03:41:52 am »

How ironic is it that Trump almost came third in the caucus?
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