Don't Democrats tend to over perform the polls in Alaska?
There's no evidence of it, there weren't any polls to my knowledge in 2012 and 2014 was spot on (and on this forum, the average is a tie for that senate race).I think any perceived overperformance by Democrats in Alaska has had more to do with longtime incumbents like Ted Stevens and Don Young having a strong, entrenched personal vote. Granted, it wasn't enough to save Stevens in 2008, but Democrats have yet to topple Young. I'm not aware of that happening at the presidential level. The state did flirt with Obama in 2008, but that was prior to Palin being on the ticket. (I wonder if he could have won it if Palin wasn't on the ticket.)
With this and Murkowski's internal and the latest news, I think the Clinton campaign should consider a small ad buy. Alaska has to be a very cheap state for TV ads.
