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  Muhlenberg College: Hillary up 7/8 in the Lehigh Valley (PA)
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Author Topic: Muhlenberg College: Hillary up 7/8 in the Lehigh Valley (PA)  (Read 746 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 09, 2016, 01:18:39 am »

Poll of Lehigh and Northampton counties (408 LV, Oct. 2-6):

47% Hillary
40% Trump

42% Hillary
34% Trump
11% Johnson
  6% Stein

The 2 counties were about O+6.5 in 2012 and about O+14 in 2008. So, it's closer to the 2012 results.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-lehigh-valley-poll-president-senate-20161008-story.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 01:23:34 am »

These numbers suggest that Hillary is up around 5-6% in PA, which seems right.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2016, 01:25:11 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 01:29:32 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

Nah ... these 2 counties always voted a bit to the left of PA (by about 2 points).
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politicallefty
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 01:31:08 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

The poll ended on Thursday, so we can only guess where the state is now. But, I agree with you. The Lehigh Valley is not the Philly suburbs. I think Hillary is running very strong in the Philly suburbs. If you want to see a suburban Republican collapse, look at Ed Rendell's numbers there in 2006. Even running several points behind that result would easily overrun anywhere Trump is overperforming.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2016, 01:35:23 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

The poll ended on Thursday, so we can only guess where the state is now. But, I agree with you. The Lehigh Valley is not the Philly suburbs. I think Hillary is running very strong in the Philly suburbs. If you want to see a suburban Republican collapse, look at Ed Rendell's numbers there in 2006. Even running several points behind that result would easily overrun anywhere Trump is overperforming.

Yup - if Clinton is over-performing in Berks/Bucks/Montgomery etc... then a 2012-like performance here, does suggest somewhere closer to 7-9 to me
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2016, 01:38:33 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

Nah ... these 2 counties always voted a bit to the left of PA (by about 2 points).

Northampton is a state PVI bellwether county.  Lehigh is about D+2.  Combined, they're probably D+1 or so.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2016, 01:42:33 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

The poll ended on Thursday, so we can only guess where the state is now. But, I agree with you. The Lehigh Valley is not the Philly suburbs. I think Hillary is running very strong in the Philly suburbs. If you want to see a suburban Republican collapse, look at Ed Rendell's numbers there in 2006. Even running several points behind that result would easily overrun anywhere Trump is overperforming.

Yup - if Clinton is over-performing in Berks/Bucks/Montgomery etc... then a 2012-like performance here, does suggest somewhere closer to 7-9 to me

Trump could run up the margin in the rural areas though, like Hofer did in the Austrian Presidential election. There could also be higher turnout in the rural areas than the urban areas. Or not. This is all hard to tell. On the other hand, Trump is no Hofer (who, as a Far-Right candidate has slightly positive favorable ratings ...) So, while Hofer kept the Austrian suburbs close - Trump might lose them big time.

We'll see.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2016, 02:00:35 am »
« Edited: October 09, 2016, 02:02:25 am by TheDeadFlagBlues »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

Nah ... these 2 counties always voted a bit to the left of PA (by about 2 points).

The Lehigh Valley mirrors Pennsylvania's demographics almost perfectly but I'd argue that it's a bit more white working class than PA as a whole. As such, it's reasonable to expect that Clinton is up from anywhere from 7-10 points if this poll is treated as an accurate reflection of how the Lehigh Valley will vote in November.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2016, 02:01:03 am »

These polls suggest that Clinton is up by 7-10 points...

The poll ended on Thursday, so we can only guess where the state is now. But, I agree with you. The Lehigh Valley is not the Philly suburbs. I think Hillary is running very strong in the Philly suburbs. If you want to see a suburban Republican collapse, look at Ed Rendell's numbers there in 2006. Even running several points behind that result would easily overrun anywhere Trump is overperforming.

Yup - if Clinton is over-performing in Berks/Bucks/Montgomery etc... then a 2012-like performance here, does suggest somewhere closer to 7-9 to me

Trump could run up the margin in the rural areas though, like Hofer did in the Austrian Presidential election. There could also be higher turnout in the rural areas than the urban areas. Or not. This is all hard to tell. On the other hand, Trump is no Hofer (who, as a Far-Right candidate has slightly positive favorable ratings ...) So, while Hofer kept the Austrian suburbs close - Trump might lose them big time.

We'll see.

Do you think this illuminates or clarifies anything? Austria is not the United States of America...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 02:15:29 am »

I can't imagine Johnson and Stein doing anywhere near that well here.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2016, 02:26:04 am »

Trump could run up the margin in the rural areas though, like Hofer did in the Austrian Presidential election. There could also be higher turnout in the rural areas than the urban areas. Or not. This is all hard to tell. On the other hand, Trump is no Hofer (who, as a Far-Right candidate has slightly positive favorable ratings ...) So, while Hofer kept the Austrian suburbs close - Trump might lose them big time.

We'll see.

That's why we're thinking high single-digits to about 7-10 instead of the nearly 21% Ed Rendell won in 2006. Philadelphia and its suburbs are huge and have a lot of college-educated whites. Rendell even put Obama's 2008 numbers there to shame, running 10-15 points ahead in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Rendell was at 70 in Bucks, 72 in Montgomery, 74 in Delaware, and 65 in Chester. If Hillary gets within even 5-7 points of those numbers, Pennsylvania might be called at poll closing. We have had a number of polls that have suggested numbers close to those.
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