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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA)  (Read 2222 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 09, 2016, 08:39:54 am »

Posted on Twitter by Sam Stein

PA: Clinton 48, Trump 40
OH: Clinton 46, Trump 42
WI: Clinton 43, Trump 39

All polls taken pre-hot mic tape

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/785110452900597771
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 08:40:41 am »

would be a near-wonder if OH and WI votes at around the same margin.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2016, 08:45:28 am »

I hope Trump has started working on his resume...
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OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 08:45:42 am »

I'm wary on WI, but I'll take it!
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 08:45:45 am »

Before Trump started grabbing pussies left and right. I'll certainly take the OH+4 and PA+8 results, thank you! Wisconsin could be better.
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Any democrat 2020.
dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2016, 08:47:20 am »

Preliminary data suggests that the hot mic tape will damage Trump around the margins, but that he will still keep a committed base of 38-40% support. That being said, 38-40% of the vote puts him on the wrong end of a landslide. That's Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale territory if it translates nationally

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2016, 08:58:44 am »

maybe a landslide in the PV.....electoral-college wise the margins are too concentrated in the blue/red states.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2016, 09:01:10 am »

Preliminary data suggests that the hot mic tape will damage Trump around the margins, but that he will still keep a committed base of 38-40% support. That being said, 38-40% of the vote puts him on the wrong end of a landslide. That's Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale territory if it translates nationally

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/
Yep. Unsurprising. Trump could grab Hillarys pussy on stage and it wouldn't make his supporters flinch.
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Any democrat 2020.
dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2016, 09:06:57 am »

Senate numbers:

OH: Portman 49, Strickland 38
PA: McGinty 42, Toomey 42
WI: Feingold 45, Johnson 42
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2016, 09:10:53 am »

the feingold numbers are creepy.

and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi?
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 09:18:59 am »

the feingold numbers are creepy.

and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi?

The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2016, 09:30:28 am »

OH and PA polls are great; WI is a bit disappointing. Sometimes I wonder if Trump's disproportionately large investment in the state will actually pay off.
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OneJ
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2016, 09:47:18 am »

the feingold numbers are creepy.

and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi?

The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed

IMO, I think PA Senate numbers don't look plausible either. The other PA poll showed a race that seemed more consistent.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2016, 09:52:27 am »

the feingold numbers are creepy.

and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi?

The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed

IMO, I think PA Senate numbers don't look plausible either. The other PA poll showed a race that seemed more consistent.

Quinnipiac showed Toomey up 8 and Monmouth had McGinty and Toomey tied as well, so no.
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2016, 10:13:44 am »

If Pennsylvania doesn't decide the election and Hillary wins, McGinty should somehow make it.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2016, 11:06:54 am »

WI looks a bit off (for both races), but the others look about right.
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OneJ
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2016, 11:22:51 am »

the feingold numbers are creepy.

and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi?

The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed


IMO, I think PA Senate numbers don't look plausible either. The other PA poll showed a race that seemed more consistent.

Quinnipiac showed Toomey up 8 and Monmouth had McGinty and Toomey tied as well, so no.

Toomey up by 8 is an outlier. Why did you mention that result?
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2016, 11:26:17 am »

Toomey up by 8 is an outlier. Why did you mention that result?

Even if it is, it should be included in the average. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. I'd say McGinty is up 2-4 points right now.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2016, 01:41:08 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2016, 01:44:35 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.


Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2016, 01:45:48 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.


Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days?
Marquette has been churning out some weird numbers this cycle.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2016, 01:47:11 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.


Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days?
Marquette has been churning out some weird numbers this cycle.

Their numbers look a lot like 2012. Wouldn't surprise me if things don't look too different from 4 years ago.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2016, 01:50:25 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.


Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days?

Yes, on Wednesday. I would assume it will be completely post-debate, but I'm not sure.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2016, 01:53:12 pm »

These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin.


Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days?

Yes, on Wednesday. I would assume it will be completely post-debate, but I'm not sure.

They usually poll over the weekend, I think it might be half and half.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2016, 02:22:02 pm »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by YouGov on 2016-10-07

Summary: D: 48%, R: 40%, I: 6%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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